MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/15/2022
Happy Jackie Robinson Day! We have an awesome 11-game slate on tap with hardly any weather concerns and it’s also the debut of MacKenzie Gore!
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
It’s important to remember that MLB is much more volatile compared to NBA and even NFL, as the batter with the highest batting average facing the worst pitcher in the league can still go 0-for-4 while the 9-hole hitter with a .095 average could end up being the highest-scoring hitter of the slate.
What we want over a season of baseball is for the most likely outcomes to end up happening more often than not, which is all we can hope for based off historical data, while always knowing the day-to-day outcomes are just microcosms of those big averages and can swing way in our favor or the complete opposite way.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
The only potential rain issues are with SF/CLE and TB/CHW although it shouldn’t be anything to bring a postponement with the worst outcome being a late game delay but still pretty unlikely.
We have a few games with wind blowing out around 10mph (NYY/BAL, SF/CLE, TB/CHW, CIN/LAD) and a few games with wind blowing in around 6-12 mph (ATL/SDP, CHC/COL, DET/KCR) while OAK/TOR, LAA/TEX, and STL/MIL are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for NYY/BAL are +17.7% while total runs for SF/CLE are +8.2%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Jonathan India is likely out after hurting his hamstring last night so we should see Brandon Drury play 2B for the Reds while a few different guys could take India’s leadoff spot including Pham, Naquin, or Senzel the most likely options. The Tigers have already ruled Javier Baez out today with his thumb injury so Victor Reyes could leadoff again while Harold Castro likely plays SS. With Spencer Howard going on the IL the Rangers are going with a bullpen game today starting with Matt Bush so the Angels hitters are going to have to face a variety of guys.
Anytime Coors field is in play we can expect both teams’ bats to be popular although today might be an exception as we have pretty solid pitching on both sides with Marcus Stroman and German Marquez. The Cubs are sitting around a 4.8 team total and the Rockies are around 5.2 which is still higher than most teams on the slate but neither are in the top three today so I probably won’t go out of my way to stack either lineup in cash games.
The top three team totals right now are the Yankees against Jordan Lyles, the Blue Jays against Daulton Jefferies, and the Dodgers against Vladimir Gutierrez. Of those 3 my favorite stack is the Dodgers as they are the most affordable especially on FanDuel while the Yankees are my next favorite stack also because of their affordable salaries (mainly on FD) and the Blue Jays are without Teoscar Hernandez making their overall lineup a little less potent. Some lower-owned stacks I like are MIL against Mikolas, CHW against Rasmussen, TEX against Detmers, and SEA against Odorizzi.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel Max Muncy is still way too cheap at $3,100 and will be the first hitter I lock in there today. Justin Turner for $3,300 will also likely make my main build while picking between Freddie Freeman ($3,600), Mookie Betts ($3,800), and Trea Turner ($3,700) will depend on positional needs but I will almost certainly have at least three Dodgers in cash games. My other favorite stack (NYY) sees Josh Donaldson at just $3,100 hitting 3rd while Stanton and Rizzo are both under $4k and at least one of them likely homers today while Joey Gallo has been awful but is only $2,700 and worth a shot today hitting cleanup if you need a cheap outfielder. Corey Seager ($3,100) is someone really sticking out as being way too cheap as he has multiple hits in four of his six games this year and is $2,300 cheaper than he is on DK. Other guys I’m liking on FD are Mike Trout ($4,000), Mike Yastrzemski ($2,500), Christian Yelich ($3,200), and Whit Merrifield ($3,100).
Looking at DraftKings now I still like Max Muncy ($4,400) and Justin Turner ($4,000) for my main Dodgers exposure while the Yankees are much harder to stack as their likely top 5 hitters are all $4.9k or higher. I keep mentioning them but Bobby Witt ($2,400) and Cody Bellinger ($2,800) are still just way too cheap for their stolen base upside and ability at the plate so one if not both will likely be my extreme salary savers on DK. Other guys I’m considering on DK are Brandon Marsh ($3,400), Trey Mancini ($3,200), Rowdy Tellez ($2,600), and Ian Happ ($3,400).
For pitching I like Carlos Rodon and Dylan Cease as spend-ups on both sites while MacKenzie Gore is my favorite cheap option.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getitng a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn