MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/13/2022
It’s pretty fitting that we have a 13-game slate on Friday the 13th and it’s looking like great weather in almost every game.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
HOU/WAS is looking at spotty showers and an isolated storm or two but this game is still likely to play with a slight chance of a brief delay. For now SFG/STL is looking likely to play with no issue but some storms could end up closer than they are currently showing so there is a slight chance of rain causing a delay of some kind.
Wind shouldn’t be much of a factor in any game either with nothing above 10mph blowing in or out anywhere and CHC/ARI, BOS/TEX, and TOR/TBR are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for CLE/MIN are +45.5% while total runs for SDP/ATL are -19.7%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Jeremy Pena has some right knee soreness and is likely out today so look for Aledmys Diaz to start at SS for Houston and Austin Hays left hand got cleated yesterday leading to a bad hand laceration so there’s a chance he sits today adding to the list of Orioles dealing with injuries in Ryan Mountcastle (wrist), Ramon Urias (abs), and Rougned Odor (sinus issue). Manuel Margot missed a couple games with hamstring soreness but he’s expected back in the lineup today while Nico Hoerner is dealing with a right ankle sprain and is projected out for now but Seiya Suzuki has a good chance of returning from his ankle soreness. Carlos Santana is off the IL and batting cleanup tonight in Coors and is a solid salary saver for $2,600 on DK.
We have Coors field in play today and the Rockies currently have the highest team total at 5.65 against Greinke but I don’t think a stack is necessary at their current prices on both sites but I do like the prices of Charlie Blackmon and Ryan McMahon on both FD and DK. On the other side of that game the Royals have a solid team total of 4.85 currently against the lefty Freeland who has been great over his last four starts with just four total earned runs so I likely won’t go too heavy on the KC bats especially at their DK prices but I do like the prices of Whit Merrifield ($3,200), Salvador Perez ($3,300), and Bobby Witt ($3,200) on FD. My favorite stacks of the day are the Angels, Astros, Dodgers, Twins, and Yankees all with team totals over 4 facing mediocre righties and a couple lower-owned stacks I like are the Diamondbacks, Mets, and Rangers.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel there’s a few cheap leadoff hitters I really like in Brad Miller ($2,700), Cooper Hummel ($2,300), and LaMonte Wade ($2,400) and more expensive leadoff guys I like are Mookie Betts ($4,500), Byron Buxton ($4,400), and Whit Merrifield ($3,300). There’s just something that I love about targeting leadoff hitters in that they usually have high SB upside, are the most likely to see an extra AB or two and they are just guys that know how to get on base a variety of ways so I will always go with the leadoff guy when deciding between two similar priced hitters. I really like the prices of Anthony Rizzo ($3,600), Giancarlo Stanton ($3,600), and Gleyber Torres ($2,400) who hopefully will hit 3-5 in the order today and make for a very affordable high-upside stack (Rizzo is now OUT). The Twins also make for a very cheap stack with Luis Arraez ($2,500), Max Kepler ($2,800), and Jose Miranda ($2,200) as my favorite guys for the price to stack (Miranda is now OUT) with Buxton. Lastly the Diamondbacks entire projected lineup is under $2.7k outside of Ketel Marte at $3,300 so if you need a super cheap stack I really like Cooper Hummel ($2,300), Jordan Luplow ($2,600), and Christian Walker ($2,600). Other value FD bats I’m considering are Max Muncy ($2,900), Alfonso Rivas ($2,400), Seth Brown ($2,600), Mark Canha ($2,700), Javier Baez ($2,900), Yonathan Daza ($2,700), and Nelson Cruz ($2,900)
Looking at DraftKings Brad Miller is my favorite value play at $2,600 while Cooper Hummel is right behind him at just $3,100 and LaMonte Wade is still a solid play at $3,400. Yonathan Daza is hitting leadoff today for the Rockies and is a very strong value play at just $2,700. My favorite Twins stack is Max Kepler ($3,600), Jose Miranda ($2,600), and Alex Kirilloff ($2,300) and Byron Buxton ($6,300) is only in GPP consideration for me at that price (Miranda is now OUT). For the price and the platoon advantage I really like Mark Canha ($3,200), and Alfonso Rivas ($2,300) both with HR’s in their last couple games and using one or both of them will really help fit in some high-priced bats and pitching. Other cheap DK bats I like include Anthony Santander ($3,000), J.D. Davis ($3,000), Kole Calhoun ($2,500), Dylan Carlson ($3,200), Seth Brown ($3,300), Carlos Santana ($2,600), and Emmanuel Rivera ($2,300).
There are so many great pitching options tonight in Cole, Scherzer, Gausman, Darvish, Buehler, and Fried in the elite tier and guys like Valdez, Rodriguez, and Webb in a tier below but still really solid options. I can’t fault you for using any of those first 6 guys as your SP1 on either site but right now I’m leaning either Cole or Gausman on FD for the slight price discount and both have a bit higher K upside and better matchups than the other aces. On DK Yu Darvish has a great price of $8,500 and he dominated the Braves a few starts ago so he may end up as my SP2 and I think Gerrit Cole for $9,600 is looking like my favorite SP1. My favorite value pitcher on both sites is Eduardo Rodriguez for around $7k against the Orioles as he has big time upside for that price and is coming off an 8 strikeout / 1 ER game against Houston.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn