MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/5/2022
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
No rain to worry about anywhere today and for wind we’ll see ~10mph blowing out in SF, ~4mph blowing out in PHI, ~5mph blowing in in SD, and a slight breeze from right to left in BAL while DET/HOU & TB/SEA are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for MIN/BAL are +7.3% while total runs for MIA/SDP are +18.9%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Jose Altuve fouled a ball off his groin area yesterday and was removed after getting a hit and coming around to score so for now he’s questionable today and projected in but if he ends up out look for Goodrum or Diaz to start for him with McCormick likely hitting leadoff (Altuve is now IN and McCormick is OUT). Pederson and Yastrzemski returned for SF last night and LaMonte Wade is very close to returning as well and he’d likely replace Luis Gonzalez in the starting lineup if he does tonight. Juan Yepez hit two doubles in his MLB debut for STL yesterday which could earn him another start over Carlson today while Buxton and Kepler sat out yesterday but both should be back in there today.
The Astros, Phillies, and Twins are my favorite stacks today while the Giants, Marlins, and Orioles are some lower-owned stacks I like taking shots on in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel the Twins are popping as great p/$ plays as we see Jose Miranda at the minimum $2k and a decent extreme salary saver while Carlos Correa is my favorite Twin for the price at just $3,200 currently on a 7-game hit streak. Buxton, Kepler, and Polanco all have nice prices and I’d prioritize them in that order depending on your positional needs. If Jose Altuve plays through his groin injury he should be a very popular play at just $2,900 but if Altuve sits then Chas McCormick would be a strong play likely hitting leadoff for $2,700 (Altuve is IN, McCormick is OUT) while Alex Bregman ($3,600) and Yulieski Gurriel ($2,700) are my next favorite Astros at great prices with the platoon advantage against the lefty Skubal. Tyler O’Neill broke out of his HR slump yesterday hitting a bomb and a triple and for $2,900 is a fine salary saver with high upside along with Juan Yepez ($2,000) if he draws another start. Akil Baddoo is hitting leadoff for DET tonight and is a great value play for just $2,100. Other cheap FD bats I like include Alec Bohm ($2,900), Trevor Larnach ($2,400), Michael Brantley ($2,700), and Mike Yastrzemski ($2,700).
Looking at DraftKings Jose Miranda ($2,100) and Juan Yepez ($2,000) are strong salary savers if they start while Max Kepler ($3,500) has a great price if he plays through his illness today with Trevor Larnach ($2,500) at a great price too especially if he hits high in the order today. Chas McCormick is in play for me at $3,000 if Altuve sits and he hits leadoff (Altuve is IN, McCormick is OUT) while Anthony Santander is a solid value play at just $3,200 liking hitting 3rd. Trey Mancini is another Orioles guy I like for the price at $3,000 and also in that range at 1B is Spencer Torkelson at $3,100 who is going to break out of his slump eventually. Other DK bats I’m liking are Akil Baddoo ($3,500), Rougned Odor ($3,200), Austin Hays ($3,400), and Alec Bohm ($3,600).
Shane McClanahan is the clear top pitcher today on both sites while Aaron Nola (especially on DK), Jesus Luzardo, and Robbie Ray are all fine options after him while Jose Urquidy is my favorite cheap option.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn