MLB DFS Projections Primer: Wednesday, September 16th
MLB daily fantasy sports are back tonight for another exciting slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. In this article, we provide a trio of top picks based on our DFS projections and rankings that will help you identify some top pitching targets. Utilizing advanced stats from our PlateIQ tool, let’s take a look at some high potential options.
Today’s PlateIQ Top DFS Pitchers
Brandon Woodruff
DraftKings Salary: $8,700
FanDuel Salary: (not on a slate)
Yahoo Salary: (not on a slate)
Overall PlateIQ Score: 74.08
PlateIQ K Score: 81.638222222222
PlateIQ Contact Score: 56.2088037625
PlateIQ Recent Form: 64.5085991
DraftKings DFS Projection: 17.66
Opponent: STL
It appears that you can only get Woodruff on the DK early slate of games, but he’d be a good option even if he was on a slate with more games available.
Against righties, Woodruff has been borderline untouchable. In 351 plate appearances in this split since the start of 2019, he has allowed just a .247 wOBA and .077 ISO while striking out 30.2% of them. Our projected lineup for the Cardinals in Game 1 of this doubleheader has five righties in it.
And while Woodruff hasn’t been as dominant against lefties (.300 wOBA, .160 ISO, 28.9% K%), he still has some pretty darn good numbers. And these lefties that the Cardinals will roll out anyways aren’t the slightest bit threatening. The only one who has any sort of pop in his bat is Brad Miller (.374 wOBA and .278 ISO against RHP since the start of 2019), but he also strikes out 24.5% of the time in this split. All of Edman, Carpenter, and Wieters (the other lefties we have in the projected lineup) are quite simply mediocre.
The only real issue here, as it is with pretty much every Brewers pitcher, is pitch count. Woodruff is coming off of a start on September 11th in which he threw 100 pitches, and that is more the exception than the rule. He is usually in the 85-95 range. His skills are good enough though that the pitch count is far less of a concern, especially in this matchup against an average at best Cardinals team.
So on a three-game slate that has Coors Field on it, I would consider the good ol’ lock button on Woodruff on DK.
Jacob deGrom
DraftKings Salary: $10,400
FanDuel Salary: $11,700
Yahoo Salary: $58
Overall PlateIQ Score: 73.29
PlateIQ K Score: 79.959888888889
PlateIQ Contact Score: 53.0837758
PlateIQ Recent Form: 59.474569425
DraftKings DFS Projection: 23.1
Opponent: PHI
Not that he needs the help, but deGrom is lined up to face a watered down version of the Phillies tonight. For one, Rhys Hoskins just went on the IL with an elbow injury. And J.T. Realmuto hasn’t been in the lineup since Saturday due to a hip injury. That basically leaves Brycer Harper and…and… [sound of crickets]
Good luck against deGrom with that lineup, Phillies.
deGrom’s skills probably need no explanation, but I will give them to you anyways. If a 31.7% K%, 15.4% SwStr%, 5.5% BB%, 2.43 ERA, and 3.29 SIERA in 2019 weren’t good enough for you, he has decided to just crank it up a notch (actually, two or three notches) in 2020. How do these numbers sound?
37.8% K%, 21.1% SwStr%, 6.2% BB%, 1.67 ERA, 2.73 SIERA
That strikeout rate is second in the entire league, behind only the absurd 41.3% that the Biebs has posted. I am going to need a judge’s ruling on this one, but there is a chance that deGrom is really good at pitching. Against what is likely to be a watered down version of the Phillies, he is obviously going to be in the discussion for top arm of the night with this other guy we are about to touch on.
Gerrit Cole
DraftKings Salary: $9,900
FanDuel Salary: $11,500
Yahoo Salary: $55
Overall PlateIQ Score: 69.92
PlateIQ K Score: 81.416111111111
PlateIQ Contact Score: 35.541898111111
PlateIQ Recent Form: 49.206541927778
DraftKings DFS Projection: 21.66
Opponent: TOR
After a slow start to the season in terms of strikeouts (for Cole’s standards, anyways), he too has cranked things up.
If you recall, he led the entire league in strikeout rate last season as a member of the Astros. His 39.9% was a good margin ahead of the 35.4% that his teammate, Justin Verlander, posted. Through his first three starts with the Yankees, that number sat at 23.9%.
Well, now that metaphorical rust has been shaken off, he is up at 36.8% in his last seven starts. That has him inching back up closer to his 2019 version, but he is still lagging a little bit behind deGrom if we think what he is doing is sustainable.
While I think you can make a reasonable case that Cole’s matchup is slightly tougher than deGrom’s, Cole is going to make up for it with all of this win equity he has. Cole has his loaded offense going up against Tanner Roark and the Blue Jays. The oddsmakers have him as a -285 favorite at the time I am writing this. deGrom, however, is only -143 against Zack Wheeler and the Phillies.
The moral of the story? Both of these guys are great options, and I’d be doing all I can to pair them together on two-pitcher sites.
- Build DFS Lineups Like a Pro!
- Access to Content and LineupHQ
- NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA