MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/29/22
We have a big 13 game slate to end the week and it’s looking like rain shouldn’t be much of a factor with just a couple places with a chance for a late start.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
STL/WSH will see some rain around first pitch which could cause a late start and then play fine while ARI/ATL will see a round of storms pregame and then another either after the game or late in-game so timing will be a factor if we see any kind of delays there. KCR/NYY & LAD/COL are the only other slight chances for any rain but both should play fine as it’s either light rain or clearing up for game time.
ARI/ATL, MIL/BOS, PHI/PIT, KCR/NYY, and STL/WSH will all see temps in the mid 70s to low 80s while OAK/CHW, LAA/COL, MIN/SDP, and TEX/LAA will be a bit cooler with temps in the high 60s to mid 70s. CHC/SFG will be the coolest game of the day with temps in the mid 50s and the dome games today are SEA/HOU, CLE/TBR, and DET/TOR.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for KCR/NYY are +16.5% while total runs for MIL/BOS are +12.2%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Cardinals will get back Arenado and Goldschmidt from the restricted list today and the A’s will get back Seth Brown who is off the paternity list while Gio Urshela is going on the paternity list for the Twins. Bobby Witt remains out for KC while Salvador Perez will return off the IL but neither are very relevant as I’m not rushing to take anyone against Gerrit Cole and we’ll see if Corey Seager or Joc Pederson need a day off after leaving yesterday’s games with minor injuries. George Springer is out today after hurting his elbow on a swing yesterday so Cavan Biggio will hit leadoff today and Bo Bichette is also getting a day off.
As long as the Dodgers are in Coors they will be the top stack of the day especially after breaking out for 13 runs yesterday and they currently sit on a similar projected team total around 7 today. The Rockies are also in a similar spot against a tough lefty in Urias so I won’t be looking to stack them. The Blue Jays, Yankees, and Brewers come in as my next favorite stacks and for GPP stacks I like taking shots on the White Sox, Cardinals, Braves, and Phillies.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I will do my best to fit in at least two of Mookie Betts ($4,500), Trea Turner ($4,300), and Freddie Freeman ($4,400) and to help fit them I will likely use some combo of Will Smith ($3,400), Jake Lamb ($2,600), and Gavin Lux ($3,000). I didn’t mention Max Muncy ($2,900) as he’s on a pretty big slump currently going 5 for his last 36 and could hit as low as 8th today but if he does hit higher than 7th I may consider giving him another shot but overall I will have the full stack of four LAD bats in my cash team. With Springer out I’m going to be all over Cavan Biggio hitting leadoff for $2,400 and for the Yankees and Brewers I’m mainly looking at Josh Donaldson ($2,600) and Rowdy Tellez ($3,300) for value plays with massive upside and of course if you have the salary for Aaron Judge ($4,900) you use him. The Phillies have a couple OF bats at excellent prices in Matt Vierling ($2,100) and Nick Castellanos ($2,300) if you need to fill a spot for cheap and on the White Sox and Cardinals I’m loving the prices of Eloy Jimenez ($2,700), Tyler ONeill ($2,900), and Nolan Gorman ($2,500) for more value options.
Looking at DraftKings I’m going to keep riding Jake Lamb at $2,100 if he keeps hitting 5th along with Gavin Lux at $3,600 if he stays above 8th in the order and I’ll only consider Max Muncy ($3,900) if he hits higher than 8th today. I’m definitely using Cavan Biggio for just $2,400 hitting leadoff and if Nolan Gorman moves back up to 5th or 6th in the order for STL It’s going to be hard to fade him for just $3,200. There’s a trio of minimum price guys I like in Victor Robles, Matt Vierling, and Tommy La Stella if you need some extreme value to fit in expensive bats and the way I listed them is how I’d rank them in priority. Other DK bats I like for the price include Yadiel Hernandez ($2,000), Jo Adell ($2,100), Michael Chavis ($2,400), Franmil Reyes ($3,400), AJ Pollock ($3,400), Alec Bohm ($3,800), and Brandon Belt ($3,200).
Pitching is loaded today but I have to go with Gerrit Cole as my SP1 on both sites at home against the Royals but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Manoah, Woodruff, Bieber, or Verlander were the top scoring pitchers of the slate so playing a lot of GPP teams covering those SPs is probably the way to go today. I will try to fit Verlander as my SP2 on DK but if I need the extra $1k for bats I’m happy dropping to Manoah for just $9,400 and if you want a lot of extra salary for bats I don’t mind Lance Lynn ($6,800) in a great matchup with OAK.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn