MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/18/22
Just a 5-game main slate today with one rain spot to monitor.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
NYM/ATL has similar conditions to yesterday with a few pop-up showers/storms during game time while yesterday they landed right over the ballpark causing a mid-game delay but today it’s looking a little less likely they hit the park but I still wouldn’t call pitchers “safe” as models could shift closer to game time. BOS/PIT should be fine but worth mentioning there could be spotty showers that even if one hit the ballpark they could probably just play through it so very low chance of any delays here. All the outdoor games today will be in the 70s with not much wind and the lone dome game will be KCR/TBR.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for TOR/NYY are +9.1% while total runs for WSH/SDP are +4.2%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
We should see DJ LeMahieu return to the lineup today as he pinch-hit yesterday after going through a full pre-game workout and the Pirates will get back Tyler Heineman at C from the IL. Hunter Dozier should be back from the paternity list for KC and with Escobar officially going on the IL yesterday for the Mets Brett Baty will draw another start after homering yesterday.
The Padres are my top stack today at home against the low strikeout righty Sanchez who has allowed 3+ ER in each of his starts this season including at least 1 HR in every start. The Yankees and Red Sox are my next favorite stacks and after those three I’d take a shot on the Rays, Jays, and Pirates.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Padres value in Trent Grisham ($2,900), Josh Bell ($3,000), and Jake Cronenworth ($2,900) and will likely using a 4th Padres bat in Juan Soto ($4,100) if I have the salary available. For the Yankees and Red Sox I like the prices of Gleyber Torres ($3,000), Andrew Benintendi ($2,900), Josh Donaldson ($2,500), Alex Verdugo ($3,000), and Christian Arroyo ($2,300) and the Rays also have a few value bats to consider in Yandy Diaz ($2,600), Brandon Lowe ($2,800), and David Peralta ($2,500).
Looking at DraftKings I’m again starting with Grisham, Bell, and Cronenworth for cheap Padres exposure with Grisham being my top overall play for just $3,300 hitting leadoff. We’ll see if Oswaldo Cabrera starts against for the Yankees as he’s still minimum price but there are other minimum price bats that I like today too in Christian Arroyo ($2,000), Tucupita Marcano ($2,000), and Michael Massey ($2,100) and for just a bit more salary I like Alex Verdugo ($3,000) and David Peralta ($3,100).
Jacob deGrom is the easy SP1 on both sites today in the same matchup with ATL he had 12 strikeouts in just two starts ago and for just $9k I’m pairing Yu Darvish with him on DK.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn