MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-06-27 22:56:09

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Boston at NY Yankees

Boston					NY Yankees
Brandon Workman		Vegas Moneyline			Vidal Nuno		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BOS (-110)			LEFT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.235	0.650	0.290	23.0%	SP vs. Left	0.270	0.791	0.352	20.0%
SP vs. Right	0.238	0.663	0.304	24.5%	SP vs. Right	0.275	0.797	0.345	14.7%
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs L		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Brandon Workman – We’re only going to cover the evening slate today as most of the major DFS sites do not have leagues up for the 2 early games. Workman has pitched well in his sophomore season. In 5 starts he has posted a 2.88 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.4. Workman is worth monitoring moving forward, but can safely be avoided tonight against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5000 FD, $9779 DS, $10450 DD, $6700 DK, $68400 FF, $16600 SS, $NA FTD

• Vidal Nuno – I’ve been avoiding Nuno all season long and that trend will continue tonight. He’s given up at least 4 earned runs in 5 of his last 10 starts and has an ERA over 7.00 at Yankee Stadium this season. While the Red Sox offense is not what it has been in year’s past, there should still be plenty of runs scored in this series. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8646 DS, $8450 DD, $5600 DK, $44800 FF, $13000 SS, $8450 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Mike Napoli – Napoli often goes overlooked because he plays at 1B which is a position with plenty of elite fantasy options every night. Napoli has 10 hits over his last 5 games and has a .414 wOBA against LH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: Jonny Gomes, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury is starting to turn things around. He has 11 hits over his last 8 games and has increased his batting average to .286 on the season. His price is still low for his talent and I like his odds of stealing a base tonight against Workman and the Red Sox.

Additional Plays: Brett Gardner, Mark Teixeira

NY Mets at Pittsburgh

NY Mets					Pittsburgh
Jacob Degrom		Vegas Moneyline			Brandon Cumpton		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PIT (-140)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.265	0.807	0.354	22.1%	SP vs. Left	0.310	0.759	0.345	17.7%
SP vs. Right	0.270	0.772	0.341	17.2%	SP vs. Right	0.252	0.572	0.267	13.5%
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jacob Degrom – Degrom is coming off of his best start in the big leagues as he struck out 7 batters over 7 scoreless innings of work against the Marlins. Tonight he travels to Pittsburgh to take on a Pirates’ offense that has been very tough ever since calling up Gregory Polanco. Degrom is a sizable underdog and should only be used as a deep GPP play. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6700 FD, $11733 DS, $12350 DD, $7500 DK, $64900 FF, $17900 SS, $12350 FTD

• Brandon Cumpton – Cumpton is also coming off of his best start in the bigs. He struck out 4 batters over 7 shutout innings against the Cubs. Tonight he faces a Mets’ offense that has really dipped in the offensive rankings over the last month or so. The Marlins have struggled to score runs on the road and strike out at a 24% clip against RH pitching. Cumpton is in play on multi-pitcher sites and in GPP’s. Rating = 6

Salaries: $5400 FD, $10200 DS, $10500 DD, $5300 DK, $88200 FF, $15700 SS, $10500 FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Daniel Murphy – Murphy has hit RH pitching well throughout his career and he draws a favorable matchup against Cumpton who has given up a .345 wOBA to LH hitters. Murphy is a safe cash game play at 2B tonight.

Additional Plays: Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda

Pittsburgh

Gregory Polanco – Polanco has been everything the Pirates were hoping for. He is batting .338 with 2 HR’s and 10 SB’s in only 68 plate appearances. His price is still affordable across the industry.

Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen

Tampa Bay at Baltimore

Tampa Bay					Baltimore
Jake Odorizzi		Vegas Moneyline			Chris Tillman		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BAL (-110)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.244	0.680	0.299	–	SP vs. Left	0.291	0.788	0.351	–
SP vs. Right	0.231	0.681	0.310	–	SP vs. Right	0.223	0.715	0.315	–
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi has been terrific in his last 3 starts. Over that stretch, he has struck out 20 batters while only giving up a combined 3 earned runs. His K/9 on the season is at 10.7 which is near the top of the league. While the matchup against the Orioles isn’t great, his upside puts him in play in tournaments. Rating = 5

• Chris Tillman – Tillman has seen a huge dip in his strikeouts this season. Over his last 5 games he has a combined 9 strikeouts. While he is facing a Rays’ offense that is ranked 21st against RH pitching, I like to target pitchers with a little more upside. It’s hard to target a pitcher that can’t make up for his earned runs with strikeouts. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria – Longo seems to have Tillman’s number. He is 11/27 with 5 HR’s off of him in his career. While BvP certainly shouldn’t be the overriding factor, Longo has always hit RH pitching well and his depressed price makes him a nice value play at 3B.

Additional Plays: Matt Joyce

Baltimore

Nelson Cruz – Cruz is typically targeted against LH pitching, but he also hits RH pitching well. He has a .366 wOBA against righties this season and a nice matchup against Odorizzi who has struggled on the road this season.

Additional Plays: Chris Davis, Steve Pearce

Atlanta at Philadelphia

Atlanta					Philadelphia
Julio Teheran		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Kendrick		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ATL (-130)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.709	0.315	18.3%	SP vs. Left	0.271	0.744	0.331	14.7%
SP vs. Right	0.214	0.574	0.268	24.5%	SP vs. Right	0.284	0.722	0.329	13.3%
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Julio Teheran – With the exception of a few bad outings, Teheran has been dominant this season. He is sporting a 2.41 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.5. He faces the Phillies a couple starts back and struck out 6 batters over 8 innings of work while only giving up 1 earned run. He should have another quality outing tonight against an offense that is ranked 28th against RH pitching this season (.290 wOBA). Rating = 8

Salaries: $8900 FD, $19305 DS, $18950 DD, $9800 DK, $116600 FF, $27400 SS, $18950 FTD

• Kyle Kendrick – Kendrick is in a pretty decent spot tonight against the Braves. In his last start against Atlanta, he struck out 6 batters over 7 innings of work while only giving up 2 earned runs. The Braves as a team are ranked 27th against RH pitching and Kendrick’s price is dirt cheap across the board. He’s in play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6

Salaries: $5800 FD, $8979 DS, $10900 DD, $6900 DK, $68200 FF, $16800 SS, $10900 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – Targeting Freeman against an average RHP is a no-brainer. Freeman has a .369 wOBA against righties this season and Kendrick has given up a .390 wOBA to LH hitters. That’s a wOBA matchup made in heaven.

Additional Plays: Jason Heyward

Philadelphia

There aren’t any recommended plays tonight on the Phillies. Teheran has been dominant this season and should have another quality start tonight.

Chicago White Sox at Toronto

Chicago White Sox					Toronto
John Danks		Vegas Moneyline			R.A. Dickey		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		TOR (-165)			RIGHT		9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.275	0.763	0.337	11.4%	SP vs. Left	0.252	0.748	0.333	17.4%
SP vs. Right	0.259	0.762	0.337	17.1%	SP vs. Right	0.233	0.689	0.311	19.7%
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• John Danks – There are nothing but red flags tonight with Danks. He has an ERA over 6.00 on the road, he is facing a very tough Blue Jays’ offense that is ranked 9th against LH pitching, and he will be pitching in the Rogers Centre which is one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in all of baseball. Danks will not find his way onto any of my lineups. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5700 FD, $10212 DS, $12050 DD, $6800 DK, $77600 FF, $17400 SS, $12050 FTD

• R.A. Dickey – Dickey has pitched better of late, but he hasn’t had those dominant outings like he had when he was pitching for the Mets. He’s given up at least 2 earned runs in 9 straight starts and will have his hands full with the White Sox who are ranked 8th against RH pitching this season. Considering his limited upside, there are better options at his price point. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7400 FD, $14964 DS, $13250 DD, $7400 DK, $75500 FF, $18800 SS, $13250 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu – Dickey has already given up 12 HR’s this season, 8 of which were to RHB’s. Abreu has a .408 wOBA against RH pitching this season and is in a great spot tonight if you want to pay up for him at 1B.

Additional Plays: Alexei Ramirez, Adam Eaton, Gordon Beckham

Toronto

Edwin Encarnacion – E5 has another terrific matchup at home. He is crushing LH pitching this season to a tune of a .401 wOBA. It looks like it will be another big night for the Blue Jays’ offense and E5 should be right in the middle of the production.

Additional Plays: Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Dioner Navarro, Steve Tolleson

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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