MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-08-04 21:22:07

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Baltimore at Washington

Baltimore					Washington
Kevin Gausman		Vegas Moneyline			Tanner Roark		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-140)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.258	0.728	0.324	15.50%	SP vs. Left	0.213	0.625	0.281	14.80%
SP vs. Right	0.250	0.608	0.277	16.30%	SP vs. Right	0.243	0.597	0.267	23.20%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kevin Gausman – Gausman has always been known as a high strikeout pitcher, but that hasn’t been the case this season. He has a K/9 of only 5.9 while walking 3.4 batters per 9 innings. He’s managed to post a 3.70 ERA, but his 4.34 xFIP suggests some regression. Tonight he faces a Nationals offense that is right around the league average in wOBA vs. RH pitching. He does face them in the pitcher friendly Nationals Park, but Gausman is a deep GPP play at best tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6000 FD, $12750 DD, $6300 DK, $69300 FF, $17300 SS, $12750 FTD

• Tanner Roark – Roark has been terrific at home this season. He is sporting a 1.94 ERA while holding batters to a .239 batting average at Nationals Park. His xFIP is a full run higher than his ERA which suggests he’s been pretty lucky this season, but a 3.70 xFIP is still better than the league average. He’s averaging 6.9 strikeouts per 9 innings and he’s facing an Orioles offense that has been ice cold. The Orioles are ranked 28th in wOBA over the last 30 days. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $7900 FD, $16150 DD, $8800 DK, $130100 FF, $26000 SS, $16150 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles bats are cold and Roark has been dominant at Nationals Park this season. He’s also held both LH and RH hitters under a .285 wOBA this season. I’ll be avoiding the O’s tonight.

Washington

Denard Span – Span isn’t a flashy player, but despite a terrific season, he largely goes unnoticed in the daily fantasy baseball world. Span has a .339 wOBA and has 15 hits over his last 10 games. He also has 23 SB’s to add to the mix.

Additional Plays: Adam LaRoche, Anthony Rendon

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Cincinnati					Cleveland
Alfredo Simon		Vegas Moneyline			Corey Kluber		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-185)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.235	0.691	0.302	15.4%	SP vs. Left	0.246	0.716	0.315	26.20%
SP vs. Right	0.219	0.613	0.276	15.6%	SP vs. Right	0.217	0.533	0.237	27.60%
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Alfredo Simon – I don’t know about you, but I certainly didn’t have Simon pegged as an All-Star at the start of the season. He’s pitched better than almost anyone could have expected, but his xFIP (3.99) is a full run higher than his ERA (2.84). This suggests some serious regression as we head into the final stretch of the regular season. He draws a tough matchup tonight against the Indians who are ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching and 6th in wOBA at home. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7300 FD, $14850 DD, $7100 DK, $84300 FF, $22400 SS, $14850 FTD

• Corey Kluber – There are quite a few aces on the mound tonight, but none with a better combination of matchup and upside than Kluber. Kluber owns a 2.61 ERA (2.70 xFIP) with a K/9 of 9.7. He’s producing a career-high 49% ground ball rate and he’s lowered his walk rate. Throw in his matchup against a depleted Reds offense and he may be the top dollar for dollar play on the board as far as pitchers are concerned. Rating = 9

Salaries: $10200 FD, $20250 DD, $9800 DK, $143500 FF, $33000 SS, $20250 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

With Corey Kluber being my top pitching option tonight, I’ll be avoiding all hitters against him. He’s held both LH and RH hitters under a .315 wOBA this season.

Cleveland

Michael Brantley – The Indians are one of my favorite offenses to target tonight. Simon has been pitching over his head and the Indians really hit RH pitching well as a team. Brantley leads the way for the Indians with a .422 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. His price on FD ($3,700) is just too good to pass up.

Additional Plays: Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Nick Swisher, Mike Aviles

Detroit at NY Yankees

Detroit					NY Yankees
Max Scherzer		Vegas Moneyline			Brandon McCarthy		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		DET (-128)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.245	0.704	0.312	23.8%	SP vs. Left	0.307	0.789	0.347	20.80%
SP vs. Right	0.221	0.633	0.279	33.7%	SP vs. Right	0.276	0.773	0.333	18.80%
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Max Scherzer – Scherzer’s numbers look nearly identical to his Cy Young season last year. He has a 3.27 ERA (3.14 xFIP), a K/9 of 10.3, and a walk rate of only 2.5 per 9 innings. He’s managed to post all of these stellar numbers despite a .312 BABIP. Tonight he faces a Yankees offense that is right around the league average in most major offensive categories. Scherzer is certainly in play, but Scherzer has similar upside and is much cheaper. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $10,900 FD, $20600 DD, $11700 DK, $137100 FF, $31800 SS, $20600 FTD

• Brandon McCarthy – McCarthy has pitched well for the Yankees since coming over from the Diamondbacks. We’ve mentioned this plenty of times this season, but McCarthy may have been the most unlucky pitcher in all of baseball during the first half of the season. His xFIP (2.96) is nearly 2 whole runs lower than his ERA. He owns a respectable K/9 of 7.6 and a low BB/9 of only 1.6. I’ll be using him plenty down the closing stretch, but a matchup against the Tigers takes him out of consideration tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6700 FD, $13300 DD, $7200 DK, $74200 FF, $21200 SS, $13300 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – Miggy has good power to both sides of the field and may be able to use the short porch in right during this series. He’s been red hot with 9 hits over his last 6 games and he draws a nice matchup against McCarthy who has given up a .333 wOBA to RH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Victor Martinez, Torii Hunter (BvP Play of the Day)

NY Yankees

Brett Gardner – I’m not too high on the Yankees offense against Scherzer tonight, but I don’t mind either of their speedsters. Scherzer has given up 10 SB’s this season and the Yankees may be forced to manufacture runs against him so look for Gardner and Ellsbury to both be aggressive on the base pads.

Additional Plays: Jacoby Ellsbury

Texas at Chicago White Sox

Texas					Chicago White Sox
Nick Martinez		Vegas Moneyline			Hector Noesi		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CWS (-148)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.304	0.919	0.402	9.1%	SP vs. Left	0.227	0.695	0.306	15.70%
SP vs. Right	0.273	0.775	0.337	10.6%	SP vs. Right	0.328	0.894	0.391	17.70%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Nick Martinez – Martinez may be the worst pitcher on the schedule tonight. He is sporting a 5.08 ERA (5.68 xFIP) and is walking nearly as many batters as he is striking out. Tonight he travels to Chicago to take on a White Sox offense that is ranked 4th in wOBA in all of baseball over the last 30 days. Martinez is not the side of this matchup that you want to be targeting. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8950 DD, $4700 DK, $40000 FF, $13000 SS, $8950 FTD

• Hector Noesi – If Martinez is the worst pitcher on the mound tonight, then Noesi is a close second. Noesi has a 5.21 ERA on the season and had a very pedestrian month of July. The matchup against the Rangers isn’t terrible, but the total for this game is set at 9.0 runs which is by far the highest of the night. Target both offenses in this one and avoid both starting pitchers. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6200 FD, $9550 DD, $5800 DK, $52200 FF, $13600 SS, $9550 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Elvis Andrus – Andrus has had a disappointing season by most accounts, but he’s finally starting to heat up. He is riding a 10-game hitting streak in which he has accumulated 15 hits and 5 walks. That means he’s reached base an average of 2 times per game over his last 10. He also has a nice matchup against Noesi who has had some serious reverse splits this season.

Additional Plays: Adrian Beltre, James Adduci, J.P. Arencibia

Chicago White Sox

Conor Gillaspie – Gillaspie is my wOBA Play of the Day in my MLB First Look column. Martinez has given up a .402 wOBA to LH hitters and Gillaspie has quietly hit for a .399 wOBA vs. RH pitching. He’ll likely be right in the middle of the batting order tonight and offers great value at 3B.

Additional Plays: Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu, Alexei Ramirez

Tampa Bay at Oakland

Tampa Bay					Oakland
Alex Cobb		Vegas Moneyline			Jeff Samardzija		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		OAK (-149)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.198	0.586	0.261	23.4%	SP vs. Left	0.236	0.675	0.297	23.70%
SP vs. Right	0.259	0.697	0.317	22.7%	SP vs. Right	0.226	0.645	0.286	20.90%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Alex Cobb – Cobb will likely fly under the radar tonight for two reasons: his matchup against the A’s and the fact that Jeff Samardzija will be pitching opposite him. In his last two starts, he’s struck out 22 batters while only giving up a single earned run. The A’s are a very patient team at the plate, but have been pretty average offensively over the last month of play (16th in wOBA). Cobb makes a terrific tournament play. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8500 FD, $15750 DD, $8100 DK, $118600 FF, $24300 SS, $15750 FTD

• Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija has pitched more to contact this season, but it has been by design. It has allowed him to pitch deeper into games (lower pitch count per batter) and it has helped him lower his walk rate. Samardzija is producing a career-high 51% ground ball rate and still has nice upside with a K/9 of 8.1. He’s very affordable on both FD and DK and is my favorite play behind Kluber tonight. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8100 FD, $18050 DD, $8500 DK, $85100 FF, $25500 SS, $18050 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays have been the hottest hitting team in all of baseball over the last month of play, but I’ll be avoiding them tonight against Samardzija in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Samardzija has held both LH and RH hitters under a .300 wOBA this season.

Oakland

This is a tough matchup for both offenses. At first glance, I was going to recommend Brandon Moss here, but Cobb has held LH hitters to a .261 wOBA this season which is very impressive. I will likely be avoiding both offenses in this one.

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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