MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 12th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
NY Mets at NY Yankees
| NY Mets | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Bartolo Colon | Vegas Moneyline | Hiroki Kuroda | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYY (-153) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.268 | 0.710 | 0.310 | 14.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 0.741 | 0.327 | 16.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.276 | 0.665 | 0.294 | 16.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.608 | 0.272 | 20.6% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP  | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Bartolo Colon – Colon hasn’t been great this season, but he does have 5 quality starts under his belt. Through 7 starts, Colon has a 5.36 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.11. He is throwing around 90% fastballs which just isn’t going to cut it against the Yankees. Colon should be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4
Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda finally snapped his streak of 2+ earned run outings by only allowing 1 earned run over 7 innings in his last start against the Angels in Anaheim. Kuroda has a terrific matchup against the Mets who are ranked 28th against RH pitching this season (.277 team wOBA). Kuroda’s price is affordable on most sites and this is a great time to buy low on him. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
New York Mets
Curtis Granderson – Granderson is back in Yankee Stadium and has a pretty nice matchup against Kuroda who is giving up a .768 OPS to LH batters this season. Granderson has been heating up over the last 2 weeks and certainly knows how to take advantage of that short porch in right.
Additional Plays: Daniel Murphy
New York Yankees
Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury is batting .345 at Yankee Stadium this season and draws a favorable matchup against the fastball throwing Colon who is giving up an OPS of .866 to LH batters this season. I love targeting Ellbsury in cash games because he has such a high floor.
Additional Plays: Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann
Detroit at Baltimore
| Detroit | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Rick Porcello | Vegas Moneyline | Bud Norris | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | DET (-109) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.295 | 0.788 | 0.351 | 15.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.303 | 0.858 | 0.379 | 15.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.601 | 0.266 | 23.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.642 | 0.295 | 22.7% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Rick Porcello – Porcello has a 3.49 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.40 this season. He seems to get a little better every single year and is actually a pitcher that I use regularly when the matchup is right. Tonight he faces an Orioles offense that is starting to get healthy with Chris Davis back in the lineup. This is basically a pick ‘em game with a total of 9.0 runs. Porcello is an average fantasy option tonight. Rating = 5
Bud Norris – Norris is having a pretty good season. Through 6 starts he has a 3.82 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a K.9 of 6.4. He faces a Tigers offense that is ranked 8th in baseball against RH pitching (team .327 wOBA). This should be one of the higher scoring games and I would much rather target these offenses rather than either of these starting pitchers. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Victor Martinez – As much as I love Miguel Cabrera tonight, I really like that V-Mart is a switch hitter and can hit from the left side of the plate to take advantage of the .858 OPS that Norris is giving up to LH batters.
Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler
Baltimore
Chris Davis – We all know that Davis crushes RH pitching. He also has good numbers against Porcello with 3 HR’s off of him in only 15 career at-bats. Davis is back in the Orioles lineup and can immediately be used in all leagues.
Additional Plays: Nick Markakis, Adam Jones
LA Angels at Toronto
| LA Angels | Toronto | ||||||||
| C.J. Wilson | Vegas Moneyline | Mark Buehrle | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | TOR (-110) | LEFT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.173 | 0.488 | 0.227 | 28.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.690 | 0.318 | 13.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.263 | 0.717 | 0.327 | 19.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.279 | 0.738 | 0.327 | 16.6% |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs L | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
C.J. Wilson – Wilson is having a very solid season thus far with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He is also averaging a strikeout per inning. The issue with him tonight is that he is facing a Blue Jays offense that is above average against LH pitching (team .320 wOBA). He also has to face them in the very hitter friendly Rogers Centre. Of the two pitchers here, I give the edge to Wilson, but I don’t think I will have very much exposure to either tonight. Rating = 5
Mark Buehrle – Buehrle’s numbers this season are fantastic, but I don’t expect those numbers to hold out over the course of the season. Buehrle has had an ERA right around 4.00 over the last 2 seasons and tonight he faces an Angels offense that is ranked 2nd against LH pitching (team .360 wOBA). Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
L.A. Angels
C.J. Cron – Cron is typically in the lineup against LH pitching and I expect him to be in the lineup tonight against Buehrle. Cron has a ton of power in his bat and is off to a hot start in the majors (batting .417 with 4 of his 10 hits going for extra bases). He’s cheap and has great upside for the price.
Additional Plays: Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Howie Kendrick
Toronto
Edwin Encarnacion – Over his last 6 games, E5 has 9 hits including 4 HR’s. He also has 10 RBI’s over that stretch. E5 has always hit LH pitching well and makes a nice play at home against the LHP Wilson.
Additional Plays: Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes
Texas at Houston
| Texas | Houston | ||||||||
| Colby Lewis | Vegas Moneyline | Brad Peacock | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TEX (-132) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.333 | 0.882 | 0.387 | 18.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.273 | 0.852 | 0.378 | 17.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.390 | 0.895 | 0.404 | 17.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.207 | 0.658 | 0.295 | 25.0% |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Colby Lewis – Lewis is coming off of his worst start of the season. He gave up 7 earned runs against the Rockies in less than 4 innings of work. He’s a pitcher that I’ve been avoiding all season long, but a matchup against the Astros could put him in play in tournaments. The Astros are ranked 26th against RH pitching (.295 team wOBA). They also have a 24.5 K% against RH pitching so the matchup is certainly in Lewis’ favor. Rating = 6
Brad Peacock – Peacock has a 5.01 ERA with a 1.74 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.8. He’s not a pitcher that I have targeted yet this season and that is not going to change tonight against a talented Rangers’ offense. Peacock is an underdog in what should be a high scoring game. Avoid him in all leagues. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
Texas
Adrian Beltre – Peacock is giving up an OPS of .881 to RH batters this season and Beltre hits both RH and LH pitching well. Beltre has started to pick it up over his last 10 games and is one of my top plays at 3B tonight.
Additional Plays: Shin-Soo Choo, Alex Rios, Prince Fielder
Houston
George Springer – Lewis is giving up an OPS of .897 to LH batters and an OPS of .938 to RH batters this season so it may not be a bad idea to target an Astros’ stack in a GPP. Springer is not a recommended cash game play, but he does have 2 HR’s in his last 4 games and a ton of power in his bat.
Additional Plays: Jason Castro, Jose Altuve
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis
| Chicago Cubs | St. Louis | ||||||||
| Travis Wood | Vegas Moneyline | Tyler Lyons | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | STL (-164) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.205 | 0.561 | 0.263 | 23.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.197 | 0.539 | 0.257 | 26.9% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.675 | 0.305 | 16.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.715 | 0.320 | 18.7% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs L | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Travis Wood – Wood has really struggled on the road this season. In 3 starts, he has an ERA of 8.80 with a 2.20 WHIP. While 3 starts is an extremely small sample size, I don’t like to target pitchers that are struggling with their command and Wood has given up 8 walks over his last 3 starts. Avoid him tonight against a Cardinals’ offense that is slowly climbing their way up the offensive rankings. Rating = 4
Tyler Lyons – Lyons is one of the biggest favorites on the schedule tonight at -165. Even though he is facing the Cubbies, that line does surprise me a little bit as Lyons has not shown us a whole lot so far this season. He has a 3.43 ERA and has yet to pitch more than 6 innings. He has a favorable matchup against the Cubs, but I think he has pretty limited upside. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Starlin Castro – Castro is having a great bounce back season after a very disappointing 2013 campaign. He is batting .283 this season with 13 of his 40 hits going for extra bases. I like the matchup against the LHP Lyons tonight.
Additional Plays: Anthony Rizzo, Junior Lake, Travis Wood (OK, he’s not available, but he is arguably the best hitter of all starting pitchers in baseball)
St. Louis
Yadier Molina – Molina is my top catcher play tonight. Not only is he one of the best hitters in baseball against LH pitching, but Wood is giving up a .374 batting average and an OPS of .820 to RH batters this season.
Additional Plays: Allen Craig, Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta