MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 5th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Minnesota at Cleveland
| Minnesota | Cleveland |
| Kyle Gibson | Vegas Moneyline | Carlos Carrasco | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | CLE (-160) | RIGHT | 8.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.341 | 0.854 | 0.387 | 9.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.351 | 0.976 | 0.427 | 8.9% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.307 | 0.848 | 0.379 | 16.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.309 | 0.732 | 0.330 | 18.9% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP  | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kyle Gibson – Teams are getting into the back end of their rotation which means we will start to see the daily fantasy baseball scores come up across the industry (last night was a great example). Gibson posted a 6.53 ERA over 10 starts last season while giving up a 1.75 WHIP and only striking out 29 batters in 51 innings of work. He is a large underdog (+155) and should be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 3
- Carlos Carrasco – Carrasco is probably the cheapest pitcher that is a big favorite today. His price is dirt cheap across the industry and he makes a risky, but solid play today against the Twins. The Twins do not have a great offense and Carrasco has posted a K-rate around 9/9 IP this Spring. Carrasco pitched considerably well at home last season and could be in line for a win. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
- Joe Mauer – Carrasco gave up a .427 wOBA to LH batters last season and Mauer is looking for another batting title this season. He hit for a .323 batting average against RH pitching last season.
Cleveland
- Jason Kipnis – The Cleveland bats are a great target today. Gibson posted a .387 wOBA to LH batters last season and 8 of the 9 bats in the CLE lineup are going to be hitting from the left side of the plate.
- Carlos Santana – Santana is batting clean-up today and is really seeing the ball well right now. He has been on-base 7 times in his past 2 games. The Indians should have plenty of runners on base when he comes up to bat.
NY Yankees at Toronto
| NY Yankees | Toronto |
| Michael Pineda | Vegas Moneyline | R.A. Dickey | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | TOR (-115) | RIGHT | 8.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | | | | | SP vs. Left | 0.255 | 0.760 | 0.335 | 17.4% |
| SP vs. Right | | | | | SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.664 | 0.302 | 20.4% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Michael Pineda – As exciting as it was to watch Tanaka in his debut, I’m almost as excited to see Pineda. If you remember, the Yankees traded Jesus Montero to the Mariners to get him, but he missed all of the last two seasons. In 2011, he posted a 3.72 ERA and a very impressive K/9 of 9.1. Pineda has looked great this Spring too. I don’t love the matchup against the Blue Jays, but I think he will post 6-8 K’s while giving up a couple of runs. Rating = 6
- R.A. Dickey – Dickey picked up right where he left off last season. And that is being a candidate to stack against. In Dickey’s first start, the Rays rocked him for 6 earned runs in only 5 innings of work. The most glaring stat is that Dickey walked 6 batters. When his command isn’t there, it can get ugly quickly. Dickey does have a high K-rate, but should only be used as a tournament play against this tough Yankees’ lineup. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
New York
- Jacoby Ellsbury – The Yankees make a great mini-stack option today against Dickey because he can get rocked every now and again. Ellsbury makes a great play here, he hit for a .328 average against RH pitching with 39 stolen bases. He is coming off of his best game as a member of the Yankees.
- Brian McCann – McCann is batting clean-up again today and has a nice matchup against Dickey who gave up a .335 wOBA to LH batters last season.
Toronto
- Back in 2011, Pineda held LH batters to a .237 average and RH batters to a .184 average. While it may take some time to get back to his old form, I think the Blue Jays are better suited as GPP plays with Pineda’s high K-rate.
Baltimore at Detroit
| Baltimore | Detroit |
| Bud Norris | Vegas Moneyline | Rick Porcello | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | DET (-150) | RIGHT | 8.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.315 | 0.882 | 0.387 | 16.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.303 | 0.809 | 0.362 | 15.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.617 | 0.284 | 23.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.592 | 0.264 | 23.9% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Bud Norris – Norris posted a 4.18 ERA last season, but he did post a K/9 of 7.5. He draws a very tough matchup against this Tigers offense though. Norris is a big underdog and should be avoided altogether today. Rating = 3
- Rick Porcello – Porcello finally started to develop into the pitcher that the Tigers were hoping he would become. In his last 12 starts last season, he posted a 3.71 ERA with a K/9 of 7.3. Porcello is a big favorite (-150) and makes a great mid-range option. He should pitch deep into this game if he can keep his pitch count down and he will likely get some run support to add to his cause. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
- Chris Davis – This is a match made in heaven for Davis. Porcello gave up a .362 wOBA to LH batters last season and Davis led the league in HR’s (40 of them against RH pitching).
- David Lough – Lough is batting lead-off today and has the splits in his favor against Porcello. Lough hit for .284 average against RH pitching last season and has some decent speed on the base pads.
Detroit
- Victor Martinez – Norris gave up a .387 wOBA to LH batters last season and V-Mart is batting clean up today. V-Mart hit for a .314 average last season and has recorded a hit in every game so far this season.
Cincinnati at NY Mets
| Cincinnati | NY Mets |
| Johnny Cueto | Vegas Moneyline | Dillon Gee | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | CIN (-130) | RIGHT | 6.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.204 | 0.561 | 0.258 | 19.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.288 | 0.817 | 0.359 | 16.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.213 | 0.633 | 0.285 | 22.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.649 | 0.293 | 17.4% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Johnny Cueto – Cueto is making his 2nd start of the season after striking out 8 batters and giving up 1 earned run over 7 innings of work against the Cardinals on Opening Day. Cueto is one of my favorite pitchers tonight as he will be facing a weak Mets offense in the very pitcher-friendly Citi Field that surrendered the 2nd fewest total runs last season. Cueto posted a K/9 of 7.7 last season which only helps his cause tonight. Rating = 9
- Dillon Gee – Gee has been a very efficient pitcher at home. Over the last 3 seasons, he has posted a 3.26 ERA at home while holding opponents to a .240 batting average. Gee is a small favorite here, but the total is set at only 6.5 runs making both pitchers attractive options. Of the two, I’d rather take the pitcher facing the Mets though. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Cincinatti
- Joey Votto – Sometimes ball park factors are a bit over-used. Just because Citi Field is a large ballpark does not mean that we have to avoid all bats here. Gee gave up a .359 wOBA to LH batters last season and Votto is one of the best hitters in baseball. He makes a nice play tonight.
New York
- As much as I love taking batters against stellar pitching, I will pass on the Mets today. Cueto should mow through this lineup as he held RH and LH batters under a .285 wOBA last season.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
| Chicago White Sox | Kansas City |
| John Danks | Vegas Moneyline | Bruce Chen | Vegas Over/Under |
| LEFT | KCR (-144) | LEFT | 8.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.293 | 0.825 | 0.360 | 14.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.261 | 0.749 | 0.330 | 13.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.270 | 0.778 | 0.340 | 15.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.626 | 0.284 | 16.6% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs L | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs L |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- John Danks – Danks is a pitcher that can never quite live up to his potential. He has shown glimpses of brilliance in the past, but has an ERA around 5.00 over the last 3 seasons. This Royals lineup struck out the fewest amount of times of any team last season which really hurts Danks fantasy value. He’s a deep GPP option at best today. Rating = 4
- Bruce Chen – The 36 year-old Chen is coming off of one of his better season. He posted a 3.27 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and had a decent K/9 of 5.8. Chen was a reverse split pitcher last season where he actually gave up a much higher wOBA to LH batters. The White Sox have 6 RH batters in their lineup today and we will see if those splits hold true. I’m not crazy about either pitcher here, but I give Chen the slight edge. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Chicago
- Jose Abreu – Abreu will be a household name in baseball here soon. He has a ton of power and he is off to a hot start this season batting .313 with 6 RBI’s. Abreu is batting 3rd today.
Kansas City
- Billy Butler – Last season Danks gave up a .340 wOBA to RH batters and Butler has always been one of the better hitters against LH pitching. He may be flying under the radar today after a slow start, but so was Pedro Alvarez yesterday and look at the game he had.
- Salvador Perez – Perez is off to a hot start this season going 6/10. He hit LH pitching to a tune of a .317 batting average last season. He’s batting 6th today and makes a nice play at Catcher if you are looking to save some cap space.
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
