MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 2nd

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-08-02 17:49:18

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

NY Yankees at Boston

NY Yankees					Boston
Shane Greene		Vegas Moneyline			Allen Webster		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BOS (-115)			RIGHT		9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.259	0.742	0.331	9.40%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Shane Greene – Greene has pitched admirably in each of his four career starts, posting a 3.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP thus far. He’ll take on a Boston team who waived the white flag at the trade deadline, but in doing so did add a couple of capable bats to their lineup (Cespedes and Craig). He has pitched remarkably well in both starts away from Yankee Stadium (2-0 with a 1.32 ERA) but Fenway Park isn’t the easiest place for a young pitcher to pitch. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5700 FD, $8150 DD, $6700 DK, $NA FF, $18000 SS, $NA FTD

• Allen Webster – With the Red Sox disasembling their starting rotation at the trade deadline, Allen Webster will draw his second start of the season today against the Yankees. The right-hander was impressive in his first start, allowing just two runs in 5.1 innings against the Rays to earn a win. He’s was very solid for AAA Pawtucket prior to that, posting a 3.03 ERA in nine starts. He was able to avoid damage despite major control problems in his first start (5 BB), but it remains a big concern going into today’s start. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $4200 FD, $ DD, $6000 DK, $ FF, $16100 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Brett Gardner – Gardner is red-hot at the plate right now, owning a 1.278 OPS over the last seven days. He’s posted a .377 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and, granted it’s a small sample size, Allen Webster allowed left-handed batters to hit .391 off of him in the big leagues last season.

Additional Plays: Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury

Boston

David Ortiz – Shane Greene has been very tough on right-handed batters this season (.167 average) so you’ll want to attack him with left-handed bats as they hit (.317 off of him at AAA this season). Big Papi has already gone deep five times in 13 games since the All-Star break and has a very nice GPP upside.

Additional Plays: Mike Napoli

Kansas City at Oakland

Kansas City					Oakland
Jason Vargas		Vegas Moneyline			Jon Lester		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		OAK (-210)			LEFT		7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.280	0.705	0.314	14.3%	SP vs. Left	0.248	0.669	0.296	27.70%
SP vs. Right	0.249	0.705	0.311	16.3%	SP vs. Right	0.231	0.627	0.280	25.10%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs L		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jason Vargas – Vargas brings a very solid 8-4 record and 3.31 ERA into to today’s game against a very dangerous Oakland team that is loaded with lefty killers and who leads MLB in BB% (9.5%). This will be his first start since coming off the DL and the matchup is far from ideal. However, Vargas has been nearly unhittable this season on the road, posting a 1.68 ERA in nine starts so he still merits some consideration on the sites that don’t heavily weight the win. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6500 FD, $12450 DD, $7600 DK, $NA FF, $21000 SS, $NA FTD

• Jon Lester – The newly acquired southpaw will make his Athletics debut tonight against a Royals team who he just dominated as a member of the Boston Red Sox last week (8 shutout innings, 4 hits, 8 strikeouts). He’ll bring a stellar 2.52 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 9.36 K’s/9 into tonight’s start and should see a nice fantasy boost from pitching in the pitcher friendly Oakland Coliseum. The Royals rank #27th in MLB in wOBA against left-handed pitching but also strikeout far less than any team in MLB this season which is the only thing holding Lester back from a higher rating. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9900 FD, $19850 DD, $11200 DK, $ FF, $30600 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Lester dominated this team last week and therefore I won’t be targeting any Royals today.

Oakland

Josh Donaldson – His destruction of left-handed pitching is no secret as he owns a ridiculous .461 wOBA and .427 ISO against them this season. That stat is even more incredible considering his very low .235 BABIP. A lot of players may be scared off due to his 1-18 career BvsP numbers against Vargas, but not me.

Additional Plays: Derek Norris

Philadelphia at Washington

Philadelphia					Washington
A.J. Burnett		Vegas Moneyline			Jordan Zimmermann		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-210)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.246	0.810	0.358	16.1%	SP vs. Left	0.261	0.693	0.305	18.80%
SP vs. Right	0.242	0.659	0.294	21.6%	SP vs. Right	0.266	0.688	0.305	25.30%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• A.J. Burnett – Burnett was blasted in his last start, surrendering seven earned runs in just five innings at Citi Field against the Mets. Today he’ll head to Washington to take on a Nationals team who he’s seen quite a bit already this season, and the results have been less than ideal (5.03 ERA and 1.42 ERA in three starts). He has struggled mightily on the road all season, posting a 3-6 record and 5.26 ERA in 12 starts. His decent strikeout totals still make him a viable GPP option, but there’s too much risk here for my liking in cash games. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $7000 FD, $14750 DD, $7700 DK, $71000 FF, $21900 SS, $14750 FTD

• Jordan Zimmermann – After being nearly unhittable for seven straight starts during June and early July, Zimmermann stumbled a bit in starts surrounding the All-Star break. However, he bounced back quite nicely in his last start, allowing just two runs on four hits in seven innings of work against the Marlins. While this Phillies team roughed him up a bit in Philadelphia in one of those rough starts, Zimmermann shut them out for eight innings when he faced them in Nationals Park earlier this season. He has been superb at home all season, posting a 2.92 ERA over 11 starts. On a day with few true “aces” taking the mound, he’s one of the safest choices on the board. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8600 FD, $16300 DD, $9200 DK, $86700 FF, $25600 SS, $16300 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Zimmermann is one of my favorite pitching options of the day and I will not be targeting any players against him.

Washington

Adam LaRoche – Lefties have posted a .358 wOBA against Burnett this season and LaRoche is the owner of a .375 wOBA versus right-handed pitching. He has had plenty of success against Burnett in the past, going 12 for 31 with five doubles and a pair of homeruns.

Additional Plays: Bryce Harper, Denard Span

Seattle at Baltimore

Seattle					Baltimore
James Paxton		Vegas Moneyline			Miguel Gonzalez		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		BAL (-122)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.268	0.793	0.349	14.30%
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.271	0.815	0.359	20.00%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• James Paxton – Paxton will return from the DL to make his first start in nearly three months for the Mariners. He was electric in his two starts this season prior to the injury, winning both games (both against LAA) and posting a 2.25 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 13 strikeouts in 12 innings of work. The sample size is obviously limited and he’ll still be working off some “ring rust” so it’s probably wise to take a wait-and-see approach with him today against an Orioles team capable of punishing left-handed pitching. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5400 FD, $17250 DD, $8600 DK, $64000 FF, $19500 SS, $17250 FTD

• Miguel Gonzalez – Miguel Gonzalez has finally settled into a nice groove for the Orioles as he owns a 1.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in four July starts. He’s pitched very well all season at Camden yards where he’s posted a 3.30 ERA in seven starts. He only allowed one run over six innings against Seattle in his last start, but did allow ten baserunners. The advanced stats point to a regression for him (4.67 xFIP) and he’s been burned by the longball this season, so he’s still a bit of a risky play in cash games against a left-handed heavy Mariners lineup. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6000 FD, $11650 DD, $6100 DK, $85600 FF, $17900 SS, $11650 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Robinson Cano – Cano had another multi-hit performance last night and has now raised his average to .331 on the season. He owns a .392 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and is hitting .355 since the beginning of July.

Additional Plays: Kyle Seager, Austin Jackson

Baltimore

Adam Jones – With a lefty on the mound for the Mariners, Jones immediately becomes a great play. He owns a ridiculous .498 wOBA against left-handed pitching and is hitting .300 this season at Camden Yards.

Additional Plays: Steve Pearce, Nelson Cruz

Texas at Cleveland

Texas					Cleveland
Miles Mikolas		Vegas Moneyline			T.J. House		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-155)			LEFT		9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.749	0.326	10.8%	SP vs. Left	0.282	0.719	0.318	17.60%
SP vs. Right	0.377	0.893	0.395	15.5%	SP vs. Right	0.328	0.907	0.397	12.80%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Miles Mikolas – Mikolas has been rather terrible during his brief time at the MLB level this year, posting an 8.54 ERA through five starts. However, he pitched rather well at AAA Round Rock this year where he owned a 3.05 ERA and just three walks in 44.2 innings and his a look at his advanced stats suggest that’s he’s been a bit unlucky since being called up (4.59 xFIP and .340 BABIP). He’ll be tasked with taking on an Indians team that ranks #3 in MLB in wOBA versus right-handed pitching (.331 wOBA) so it’s probably still wise to pass on him. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8950 DD, $4700 DK, $55000 FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• T.J. House – Despite being blasted for six earned runs on ten hits in 6.1 innings of work in his last start at AAA Columbus, the Indians are calling on House to take the mound against MLB’s worst team, the Texas Rangers. In nine starts with the Indians this year, House owns a respectable 4.50 ERA but a troubling 1.56 WHIP. However, with a 3.68 xFIP there is reason for some optimism. With that said, the Rangers have hit left-handed pitching quite well this season (.329 wOBA) and smacked House around for six runs in just 3.1 innings when they met last month. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $5400 FD, $8150 DD, $5800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Alex Rios – Righties hit .303 off of House this season at AAA Columbus and Rios is hitting left-handed pitching just about as well as anyone in the big leagues this season. Rios owns a .438 wOBA versus lefties and already owns a triple off of House in one of their two previous meetings.

Additional Plays: Adrian Belre, Elvis Andrus

Cleveland

Michael Brantley – While it’s certainly worth noting that righties are hitting .385 off of Mikolas in the big leagues, it was lefties that hurt him at AAA (.310 batting average). Brantley has posted a very impressive .413 wOBA on the season and is hitting .362 at Progressive Field. He had three hits last night and is set up nicely for another big game tonight.

Additional Plays: Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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