MLB Grind Down: Sunday/Monday
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Chicago Cubs at NY Mets – 8:07 PM EST
| Chicago Cubs | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Jake Arrieta |  | Noah Syndergaard | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-117) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.173 | 0.492 | 0.224 | 30.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.690 | 0.296 | 22.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.205 | 0.542 | 0.240 | 24.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.208 | 0.601 | 0.262 | 32.60% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 229.0 — SIERA: 2.75 — ERA: 1.77 — K%: 27.1% — BB%: 5.5% — HR/9: 0.39
Last 30 Days: IP: 46.0 — SIERA: 1.91 — ERA: 0.39 — K%: 28.6% — BB%: 2.5% — HR/9: 0.20
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 15)
The Cubs will look to win a much-needed game to tonight as they have their ace, Arrieta taking the mound against Syndergaard for the Mets. Arrieta has been fantastic down the stretch of the season. Since the start of September, Arrieta has a stellar 1.95 SIERA with an elite 28.6% strikeout rate. He is a big favorite against the Mets tonight who were ranked 20th in the league in team wOBA against righties and should be looked at as the safest bet for the Sunday/Monday slate, if you can fit the price in. Rating = 9
Salaries: $12,700 FD, $12,700 DK
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 150.0 — SIERA: 2.95 — ERA: 3.24 — K%: 27.5% — BB%: 5.1% — HR/9: 1.14
Last 30 Days: IP: 27.2— SIERA: 1.63 — ERA: 3.73 — K%: 36.3% — BB%: 2.0% — HR/9: 0.65
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 30)
The Mets will be throwing out the young Noah Syndergaard tonight for game two. He has had a great rookie campaign as he put up a 2.95 SIERA and a 27.5% strikeout rate over the course of 150 innings pitched. He gets a great upside matchup against the Cubs who struck out at the highest clip in the league against righties (24%). Syndergaard has some major home and away splits this year and he will be pitching at home where his ERA is close to two runs lower as opposed to when he pitches away from Citi Field. He makes a good tournament play tonight on multi-pitcher sites since run support may be tough for the Mets. Rating = 8
Salaries: $10,400 FD, $10,800 DK
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs bats are going to have to start getting going quickly here in this series so to not waste an all-important Arrieta start. They have a 3.11 team total against Syndergaard who has allowed lefties to a wOBA of .296 this year. He has had some home run issues this year (1.14 HR/9 on the season), which puts the power lefties of the Cubs in play. Kyle Schwarber has been too hot to ignore as him and Anthony Rizzo make for elite plays tonight.
Elite Plays:
Kyle Schwarber
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 212 — wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.278 — wRC+: 161
Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 292 — wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.255 — wRC+: 145
Secondary Plays:
Dexter Fowler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 536 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 101
Kris Bryant
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 505 — wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 140
NY Mets
Arrieta has shut down the majority of the offenses he has faced this year. That should continue tonight as he has kept batters to a wOBA of under .240 from both sides of the plate this year. With that said, with only two games on the slate, you may decide to fade the Arrieta picks and take a couple of Mets. Daniel Murphy has been red hot so far in the postseason and is a decent play.
Elite Plays:
Daniel Murphy
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 404 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.193 — wRC+: 121
Secondary Plays:
Curtis Granderson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 539 — wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.225 — wRC+: 151
Kansas City at Toronto – 8:07 PM EST
| Kansas City | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Johnny Cueto |  | Marcus Stroman | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (0) | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.203 | 0.579 | 0.260 | 23.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.618 | 0.276 | 20.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.660 | 0.290 | 22.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.623 | 0.278 | 20.40% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 212.0— SIERA: 3.81 — ERA: 3.44 — K%: 20.3% — BB%: 5.3% — HR/9: 0.89
Last 30 Days: IP: 40.1 — SIERA: 4.69 — ERA: 5.58 — K%: 13.2% — BB%: 6.6% — HR/9: 1.12
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 5)
Royals fans were extremely nervous with the ace pitcher in Cueto that they thought they traded for. He was terrible after being traded to Kansas City. Through the months of August and September (11 starts), Cueto had a 4.99 ERA (4.28 SIERA) as he struggled for his new squad. Those struggles appear to be a bit behind him as he was great in the last start against the Astros when he struck out eight over eight innings of work. His fastball has about seven or eight mph higher on it more than he did over those rough months, which should contribute to another solid start tonight. The problem with him is the matchup as he has to go into Rogers Centre against the best offense in the league. He is a tough play, but the upside is there for Cueto. Rating = 7
Salaries: $10,500 FD, $9,500 DK
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 27.0— SIERA: 3.28 — ERA: 1.67— K%: 17.5% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 0.67
Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 1)
Stroman has been a great late season addition to the Blue Jays rotation as he returned from injury in September. Since coming back, he has posted a 1.67 ERA with a 3.28 SIERA. His 17.5% strikeout rate is below average and when you add that to the fact that he has to face the Royals who strikeout at a 16.3% rate for the lowest rate in the league, his upside is limited. He was decent against the Rangers (13 innings, five earned runs) and is the cheapest pitcher going on this slate and could be used at multi-pitcher sites or single sites in order to fit some of the bigger bats in your lineups. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8,300 FD, $9,900 DK
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
In a small sample size this year, Stroman has kept batters to under a wOBA of .278 from both sides of the plate. This Royals squad are heavy underdogs in this game, but the overall run total is set two and half runs higher than the Cubs/Mets game, putting both of these offenses in play.
Elite Plays:
Ben Zobrist
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 182 — wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.137 — wRC+: 103
Eric Hosmer
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 401 — wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 141
Secondary Plays:
Alex Gordon
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 276— wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.175 — wRC+: 120
Kendrys Morales
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 377 — wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.254 — wRC+: 146
Lorenzo Cain
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 402 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.139 — wRC+: 113
Salvador Perez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 378 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.187 — wRC+: 106
Toronto
Fitting these Toronto bats into playoff lineups has been difficult due to the starting pitcher salaries. Yet, as we have seen throughout the year, they are the most powerful offense in the league and could go off against any pitcher in Rogers Centre. They have the highest team total on this slate against Cueto and a number of Blue Jays are in play today.
Elite Plays:
Jose Bautista
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 535 — wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.301 — wRC+: 152
Ben Revere
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 175 — wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.073 — wRC+: 98
Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 573 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.256 — wRC+: 149
Secondary Plays:
Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 506 — wOBA: 0.399 — ISO: 0.294 — wRC+: 155
Russell Martin
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 396 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.211 — wRC+: 101