MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 15th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
San Diego at Cincinnati
| San Diego | Cincinnati | ||||||||
| Ian Kennedy | Vegas Moneyline | Johnny Cueto | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CIN (-124) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.784 | 0.344 | 24.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.160 | 0.462 | 0.213 | 23.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.693 | 0.321 | 20.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.183 | 0.584 | 0.263 | 26.3% |
| Batter Splits | SDP BvP  | SDP vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Ian Kennedy – Kennedy is having a terrific season. Some of his stats are inflated (well technically deflated) thanks to half of his starts being in Petco Park, which is the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball. What’s not inflated is his K/9 of 10.3. The upside is there, but he will likely see little to no run support. He makes a decent GPP play, but should be avoided in cash games. Rating = 6
Johnny Cueto – These two pitchers were scheduled to start yesterday, but the game got rained out so both will start today. Cueto is making an early case for the Cy Young award with his 1.43 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and K/9 of 9.7. He faces a Padres’ offense that ranks dead last against RH pitching with a team .267 wOBA. Cueto is the top pitching option on the board today. The only question is whether or not he is worth his expensive salary. Rating = 10
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
Targeting pitchers against Cueto is not a great long-term strategy in DFS. Cueto is holding RH batters to a .150 batting average and LH batters to a .112 batting average this season. Avoid all Padres’ bats in this day game.
Cincinnati
Joey Votto – Over the last 2 seasons, Kennedy has given up a .344 wOBA to LH batters. Votto’s numbers have been down a bit this season, but he is batting .333 at Great American and a depressed price makes him a terrific play at 1B.
Additional Plays: Billy Hamilton, Todd Frazier
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
| Pittsburgh | Milwaukee | ||||||||
| Wandy Rodriguez | Vegas Moneyline | Yovani Gallardo | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | MIL (-148) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.777 | 0.358 | 7.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.708 | 0.318 | 17.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.768 | 0.337 | 20.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.267 | 0.693 | 0.310 | 19.0% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Wandy Rodriguez – Rodriguez will come off the DL to make his 5th start of the season. He had inflammation in his right knee and had to have it drained. Rodriguez has pitched well over the last 2 seasons, but has struggled early on this season with a 7.65 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. He’s going to be a viable option moving forward, but I typically like to wait a start or two after pitchers come back from an injury. Rating = 4
Yovani Gallardo – Through 8 starts this season, Gallardo has a 2.92 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.06. Gallardo is facing a Pirates’ offense that is ranked 17th against RH pitching with a team .309 wOBA. Gallardo has already faced this Pirates team 2 times this season and has struck out 12 batters over 12 innings of work while giving up 4 earned runs. He’s a solid cash game option on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Andrew McCutchen – Cutch is one of those players that always finds a way to produce some type of fantasy output. He rarely has zero or negative fantasy points. Cutch is batting .308 against RH pitching this season and has a great rack record against Gallardo as he is 14/43 off of him with 7 XBH’s including 3 HR’s.
Additional Plays: Ike Davis, Neil Walker
Milwaukee
Ryan Braun – Braun is back in the lineup for the Brewers and has hopefully shaken off the rust after already playing in 2 games since coming back from his injury. Braun has always hit southpaws well and that includes Rodriguez. Braun is 18/49 with 4 HR’s off of Rodriguez in his career.
Additional Plays: Jonathan Lucroy, Khris Davis, Jean Segura
Boston at Minnesota
| Boston | Minnesota | ||||||||
| Clay Buchholz | Vegas Moneyline | Phil Hughes | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BOS (-125) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.214 | 0.587 | 0.268 | 21.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.277 | 0.804 | 0.352 | 19.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.684 | 0.306 | 20.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.305 | 0.804 | 0.354 | 18.2% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Clay Buchholz – Buchholz has made 7 starts this season and it has been a mixed bag of results. He has 4 quality starts, but also has 3 starts in which he has given up at least 6 earned runs. Arm strength has been an issue for Buchholz since coming back from his injury last season. At this point, it is probably best to avoid him in all leagues until he can string together a few quality outings in a row. The matchup isn’t great as the Twins are ranked 10th against RH pitching with a team .323 wOBA. Rating = 5
Phil Hughes – Hughes is really having a nice bounce back year. Through his first 7 starts with the Twins he has a 3.96 with a 1.29 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.02. He’s posted 3 quality starts in a row, but does draw a very tough matchup against the Red Sox who are ranked 11th against RH with a team .319 wOBA. Hughes has had trouble keeping the ball in the park against the Red Sox in the past, but if he can do that today, he makes a nice sleeper pick in a GPP. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Boston
David Ortiz – Ortiz has been red hot lately. Over his last 7 games, he has 15 hits including 5 HR’s. There must be something in the water in Minnesota as Ortiz has already hit 4 HR’s in his series. He has a nice matchup against Hughes who has given up a .352 wOBA to LH batters since the start of last season.
Additional Plays: A.J. Pierzynski, Grady Sizemore
Minnesota
Trevor Plouffe – Buchholz has given up a .397 batting average and an OPS of 1.01 to RH batters this season. Plouffe has 4 hits already in this series including a HR. His price is depressed across the industry and he makes for a great value play at 3B.
Additional Plays: Joe Mauer, Chris Parmelee
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis
| Chicago Cubs | St. Louis | ||||||||
| Jason Hammel | Vegas Moneyline | Michael Wacha | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-150) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.288 | 0.838 | 0.370 | 14.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.217 | 0.558 | 0.254 | 24.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.616 | 0.277 | 19.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.665 | 0.302 | 28.3% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Pitcher Grind Down
Jason Hammel – Hammel has a 2.45 ERA on the season with a 0.87 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.1. Hammel has gotten off to a fast start each of the last few years and that’s been the case again in 2014. While I think he will pitch pretty well against the Cardinals, who are ranked 19th against RH pitching with a team .309 wOBA, he will likely see little to no run support with Wacha pitching opposite him. He may be on hook for the loss even if he only gives up 1 or 2 runs. Rating = 5
Michael Wacha – Wacha has been terrific this season with a 2.85 ERA and an impressive K/9 of 10.9. This Cubs’ offense is ranked 27th against RH pitching with a team .284 wOBA. They also strike out at a high rate against RH pitching as their K% is 23.3% against RH pitching. Wacha is a top pitching option, especially in the early slate of games. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Since the start of last season, Wacha has held LH and RH batters under a .305 wOBA. Even though this Cubs’ offense has come alive in this series, I will be avoiding all of their batters today.
St. Louis
Jhonny Peralta – I’m not crazy about the Cardinals’ bats today, but J-Honny does have good numbers off of Hammel in his career. He has faced him 17 times and has 8 hits including 2 HR’s. Peralta has also been heating up of late with 14 hits in his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Matt Carpenter
Cleveland at Toronto
| Cleveland | Toronto | ||||||||
| Danny Salazar | Vegas Moneyline | J.A. Happ | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TOR (-118) | LEFT | 9.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.643 | 0.293 | 32.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.288 | 0.746 | 0.336 | 17.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.277 | 0.839 | 0.362 | 26.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.750 | 0.334 | 18.7% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs L | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Danny Salazar – Salazar has a 5.65 ERA on the season with a 1.63 WHIP and a K/9 of 11.0. While the strikeouts have been there, Salazar has had a tough time staying away from trouble and he has already given up 15 walks this season. Tonight he faces a tough Blue Jays’ offense that is ranked 4th against RH pitching with a team .338 wOBA. The total for this game is set at 9.0 runs and I’ll be avoiding Salazar in all leagues. Rating = 4
J.A. Happ – Happ is a pitcher that I have a tough time trusting in cash games. Over the last 2 seasons he has had a below average ERA and WHIP. Through 2 starts this season he has a 4.63 ERA with a 2.05 WHIP and 10 K’s over 11 innings of work. I typically don’t like to target pitchers in the very hitter friendly Rogers Centre and that will be the case again tonight. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Carlos Santana – Santana is off to an extremely slow start this season, but he has 4 hits and 4 walks in his last 3 games and has a terrific matchup against Happ who has given up a .334 wOBA to RH batters over the last 2 seasons.
Additional Plays: Asdrubal Cabrera, Yan Gomes, Nick Swisher
Toronto
Edwin Encarnacion – Even though Salazar is a RHP, he has given up a much higher wOBA and OPS to RH batters than he has to LH batters. E5 is batting .265 at home with 12 XBH’s. I like the matchup and his upside for his price.
Additional Plays: Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Juan Francisco