MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 1st - Page 2
Seattle at NY Yankees
| Seattle | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Roenis Elias | Vegas Moneyline | Hiroki Kuroda | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | SEA (-117) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.190 | 0.661 | 0.297 | 24.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.262 | 0.746 | 0.329 | 16.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.256 | 0.725 | 0.337 | 16.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.619 | 0.276 | 19.6% |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP  | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Roenis Elias – Elias has pitched well in his first 5 big league starts. He has a 3.54 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and 21 K’s over 28 innings of work. He draws a tough matchup against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium though and I think they could get a hold of him in this one. That said, Vegas disagrees with me as Elias is a slight favorite and the total is only set at 7.5 runs so I could be reading this one wrong. Rating = 4
Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda has not been himself in his last few starts, but that is starting to become the norm. Kuroda has given up at least 2 earned runs in each of his last 10 starts dating back to last season. Kuroda’s strikeout numbers are down too as he has only managed to strikeout 18 batters in his first 29 innings of work this season. I think he makes a decent tournament play, but should probably be avoided for cash games. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Kyle Seager – Seager has been on an absolute tear over the past week. If you don’t believe me, pull up his game logs on the DFS site that you are playing on. Over his past 5 games he has 9 hits including 5 HR’s. Kuorda gave up a .329 wOBA to LH batters last season.
Additional Plays: Robinson Cano
N.Y. Yankees
Carlos Beltran – Beltran is off to a nice start with the Yankees and has been excellent at Yankee Stadium batting .309 with a 1.10 OPS. Even though it’s a small sample size, Elias has given up a .337 wOBA to RH batters this season.
Additional Plays: Alfonso Soriano, Mark Teixeira, Yangervis Solarte
Atlanta at Miami
| Atlanta | Miami | ||||||||
| Ervin Santana | Vegas Moneyline | Henderson Alvarez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | ATL (-126) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.242 | 0.664 | 0.298 | 18.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.687 | 0.311 | 12.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.641 | 0.286 | 21.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.581 | 0.271 | 15.5% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Ervin Santana – Even though Santana gave up 4 earned runs in his last start, it was still a pretty decent fantasy outing. He is off to a terrific start this season with a 1.95 ERA and 31 K’s over 27 innings of work. He is hoping to have better success against this Marlins’ offense than both Alex Wood and Aaron Harang did. I think the Marlins offense finally cools off and Santana makes another quality start. Rating = 7
Henderson Alvarez – This Braves offense has been nowhere to be found in this series, but Alvarez is not an appealing fantasy option. He struggles against LH batters and has very limited upside thanks to his low K-rate. The total is low in this game, but so is Alvarez’s upside. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Jason Heyward – Heyward has gotten off to a slow start this season, but has great power against RH pitching and has some nice speed on the bases. Heyward does have 4 hits in his last 3 games and has a nice matchup against Alvarez who gave up a .311 wOBA to LH batters last season.
Additional Plays: Freddie Freeman, Justin Upton
Miami
Giancarlo Stanton – Stanton is the only Marlins’ bat that I will have any exposure to tonight and if you are a GPP player, you have to at least have some exposure to him because he is one of the few players in baseball that has multi-HR type of upside. Fade him in cash games and use him in GPP’s.
Additional Plays: None
Milwaukee at Cincinnati
| Milwaukee | Cincinnati | ||||||||
| Marco Estrada | Vegas Moneyline | Homer Bailey | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CIN (-118) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.197 | 0.604 | 0.271 | 25.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.287 | 0.790 | 0.353 | 21.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.709 | 0.311 | 21.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.213 | 0.595 | 0.271 | 25.4% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Marco Estrada – Estrada is coming off of his best start of the season, but it was against the Cubs and he still gave up 3 earned runs. Estrada has a 2.87 ERA this season with a 0.97 WHIP. He is a high strikeout pitcher that deserves GPP consideration against the Reds. Rating = 5
Homer Bailey – Bailey has only had 1 quality start this season and has given up at least 4 earned runs in each of his other starts. The run total for this game is only set at 7.5, but I’m not sure that I will have Bailey in many of my lineups tonight. The positive for Bailey is that this Brewers’ lineup doesn’t have many LH batters, but I still think he is an average fantasy option tonight. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Jonathan Lucroy – Lucroy has been solid so far this season batting .292 with 6 XBH’s against RH pitching. Bailey has allowed 4+ runs in 4 starts already this season and Lucroy is cheap across the industry.
Additional Plays: Scooter Gennett
Cincinnati
Jay Bruce – Bruce has great power against RH pitching and has terrific numbers against Estrada. He has only faced him 17 times in his career, but has 4 HR’s off of him. That combined with the fact that this game will be played in the hitter friendly Great American, Bruce makes a terrific play tonight.
Additional Plays: Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton
Tampa Bay at Boston (Game 2)
| Tampa Bay | Boston | ||||||||
| Chris Archer | Vegas Moneyline | Felix Doubront | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BOS (-149) | LEFT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.724 | 0.324 | 21.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.684 | 0.310 | 20.9% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.218 | 0.542 | 0.251 | 16.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 0.759 | 0.338 | 18.1% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs L | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Archer – I typically don’t like taking pitchers against the Red Sox in Fenway. It’s not quite the Rockies in Coors Field, but it’s still a very tough place for opposing pitchers to play. Archer hasn’t been very sharp this season with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He should be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 3
Felix Doubront – Doubront pitched well against this Rays lineup last season with a 2.55 ERA over 4 starts, but is not a recommended fantasy option tonight. Doubront has really gotten off to a bad start this season as he has posted a 6.00 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. The Rays hit LH pitching well and this should be a high scoring game. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria – Longoria crushes LH pitching. Here are his splits against lefties from last season: .301/.383/.949 BA/OBP/OPS. He has pretty good numbers off of Doubront in his career and should come up to bat with plenty of RBI opportunities. Longo is my top play at 3B tonight.
Additional Plays: Desmond Jennings, Wil Myers
Boston
David Ortiz – Ortiz has always hit RH pitching well and is batting .277 with 5 XBH’s at home this season. He has a nice matchup against Archer who gave up a .324 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season.
Additional Plays: A.J. Pierzynski, Grady Sizemore, Mike Carp (if in lineup)
Toronto at Kansas City
| Toronto | Kansas City | ||||||||
| Mark Buehrle | Vegas Moneyline | Jeremy Guthrie | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | KCR (-110) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.711 | 0.328 | 13.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.325 | 0.889 | 0.390 | 11.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.281 | 0.744 | 0.329 | 16.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.616 | 0.281 | 13.6% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Mark Buehrle – Buehrle finally had his first bad outing of the season and he really made it count. He gave up 12 hits and 6 earned runs to the Red Sox in his last outing and faces a Royals offense that strikes out less than any team in baseball. Buehrle has struggled in his road starts over the last couple of seasons and I’ll pass on him today. Rating = 4
Jeremy Guthrie – Guthrie’s biggest problem is getting out LH batters (.390 wOBA last season). That could spell trouble for him tonight as the Blue Jays have quite a few batters in their lineup that can hit from the left side of the plate. Not only that, but they also have a few RH batters that aren’t too shabby themselves in Bautista and Encarnacion. Guthrie should be avoided in all leagues.
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Jose Reyes – As mentioned above, Guthrie gave up a .390 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate and Reyes is finally starting to heat up. His value isn’t as high as it is when he is stealing bases, but I think he has a multi-hit game in store tonight.
*Additional Plays:*Dioner Navarro, Colby Rasmus
Kansas City
Salvador Perez – Buehrle gave up a .329 wOBA to RH batters last season and Perez has always hit LH pitching well. He has reached base 9 times in his last 4 games with 7 hits and 2 walks. His price is cheap across the industry and he’s my favorite value at Catcher.
Additional Plays: Billy Butler
NY Mets at Colorado
| NY Mets | Colorado | ||||||||
| Bartolo Colon | Vegas Moneyline | Juan Nicasio | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | COL (-128) | RIGHT | 9.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.701 | 0.306 | 14.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.774 | 0.347 | 18.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.656 | 0.288 | 16.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.296 | 0.805 | 0.359 | 16.8% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Bartolo Colon – Colon is coming off of a great start against the Cardinals, but still owns a 4.50 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.3. Even if he had an ERA under 1.00 this season, I wouldn’t target him against the Rockies in Coors Field. Rating = 2
Juan Nicasio – You know the drill here. Never target any pitchers in Coors Field. The total is set at 9.5 runs and I’m not expecting much from either starter in this game. Rating = 2
Batter Grind Down
N.Y. Mets
David Wright – Nicasio gave up a .347+ wOBA to both LH and RH batters last season so there are quite a few Mets’ batters in play tonight in Coors Field. I’ll give the nod to Wright as my favorite play though as he is one of the best hitters in baseball. He is off to a pretty slow start this season, but a trip to Coors Field should get him going.
Additional Plays: Daniel Murphy, Eric Young, Curtis Granderson
Colorado
Carlos Gonzalez – Cargo was one of my favorite plays yesterday and he delivered with a 2-run HR in Arizona. Tonight he faces the very old Bartolo Colon at home in Coors Field. Cargo’s price is still depressed across the industry and he’s a recommended play in all leagues tonight.
Additional Plays: Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Morneau, Charlie Blackmon