MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 8th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Minnesota at Cleveland
| Minnesota | Cleveland | ||||||||
| Kevin Correia | Vegas Moneyline | Justin Masterson | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CLE (-172) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.290 | 0.780 | 0.344 | 12.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.261 | 0.704 | 0.324 | 18.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.304 | 0.798 | 0.350 | 12.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.180 | 0.478 | 0.243 | 31.5% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP  | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Kevin Correia – Correia is one of the many Twins’ starters that is off to a sluggish start. Through his first 6 starts this season, he has a 6.09 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP. He’s given up more earned runs (23) than strikeouts (15). Correia is one of the biggest underdogs on the schedule today and should be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 2
Justin Masterson – Masterson has pretty pedestrian numbers on the season with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, but he is averaging almost 1 strikeout per inning and he is coming off of his best start of the season as he threw 7 shutout innings with 6 K’s against the White Sox. This Twins lineup is not scaring anyone right now, especially with Muaer out. Masterson is a great SP option in the early slate of games. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Brian Dozier – Once again, Dozier will be the only Twins’ batter that I will have any exposure to today. While he is only batting .234 on the season, he has 8 HR’s and 11 SB’s already this season. He makes a nice GPP play against the RH Masterson.
Additional Plays: None
Cleveland
Lonnie Chisenhall – Chisenhall makes a great punt option at 3B today. He is batting .350 against RH pitching this season and Correia has really struggled against LH batters as he has given up a .344 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate.
Additional Plays: Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana
Houston at Detroit
| Houston | Detroit | ||||||||
| Dallas Keuchel | Vegas Moneyline | Drew Smyly | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | DET (-220) | LEFT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.282 | 0.753 | 0.338 | 28.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.171 | 0.453 | 0.204 | 25.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.291 | 0.798 | 0.355 | 15.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.249 | 0.718 | 0.318 | 27.0% |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs L | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Dallas Keuchel – Keuchel is a much better pitcher than most DFS players around the industry give him credit for. That said, he’s still not a great fantasy option as he doesn’t get much run support from this Astros’ offense and he is facing a Tigers’ offense that is the 3rd best team in baseball against LH pitching (.364 wOBA). Rating = 3
Drew Smyly – Smyly has pitched pretty well this season. He has made 5 appearances (3 starts) and has a 2.45 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and 21 K’s over 22 innings of work. Today he faces an Astros’ offense that is ranked 24th against LH pitching this season. Not only that, but the Astros have stuck out the 2nd most times of any team in baseball. This is a terrific matchup for Smyly, his value really comes down to his price on the site(s) that you are playing on. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Houston
George Springer – Even though his average is only at .224 this season, Springer is riding a 7-game hitting streak. Springer was mashing LH and RH pitching in the minors before being called up and it’s only a matter of time before he figures it out in the majors. I like him as a punt option tonight. On an unrelated note, how does he not break his left ankle every time he swings?
Additional Plays: Jose Altuve
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera – Miggy is obviously a great play today. He’s at home against an average LH pitcher. Over his last 2 games, Miggy is 5/9 with 2 HR’s and 5 RBI’s. He’s the top 1B on the board today so try to find a way to squeeze him in your lineups.
Additional Plays: Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez
Philadelphia at Toronto
| Philadelphia | Toronto | ||||||||
| A.J. Burnett | Vegas Moneyline | R.A. Dickey | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TOR (-122) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 0.730 | 0.343 | 20.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.755 | 0.333 | 17.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.200 | 0.534 | 0.241 | 28.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.232 | 0.674 | 0.308 | 20.1% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
A.J. Burnett – Burnett may not be able to run very fast, but he can still pitch with the best of them. Burnett has a 2.06 ERA on the season with a 1.22 WHIP and 35 K’s over 43 innings of work. He has been dominant in his last two starts, but draws a very tough matchup today against the Blue Jays at the very hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. We saw this Blue Jays offense put up double-digit runs last night (6 of them charged to Cliff Lee) and I will not be targeting Burnett in any cash games. Rating = 5
R.A. Dickey – Dickey is one of those pitchers that should only be used in tournaments. He is a roll of the dice every time that he takes the mound regardless of who his opponent is. This season Dickey has a 5.01 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP. He still has high K potential, but he’s given up 5+ runs in 3 starts already this season. Feel free to use him as an upside play in a tournament, but avoid him for cash games. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
Chase Utley – Utley has cooled off since his red hot start, but is still batting .342 against RH pitching with 11 XBH’s. Utley is not a player that strikes out a lot so he should be able to put the ball in play against knuckle baller.
Additional Plays: Domonic Brown, Marlon Byrd
Toronto
Jose Bautista – Bautista is having a terrific season and he seems to be flying under the radar which is surprising considering he is a 2-time AL HR champ. Bautista is batting .326 at home with 6 XBH’s and has a nice history against Burnett as he has taken him deep 3 times in only 14 at bats.
Additional Plays: Jose Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
| Baltimore | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Vegas Moneyline | David Price | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-170) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.227 | 0.665 | 0.299 | 27.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.219 | 0.572 | 0.255 | 22.9% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.263 | 0.724 | 0.324 | 20.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.707 | 0.311 | 21.6% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Ubaldo Jimenez – Ubaldo is coming off of his best start of the season. He threw 7 shutout innings against the Twins and struck out 10 batters. Ubaldo was terrific during the second half of the season last year and may have figured things out as he hasn’t allowed more than 6 hits in any of his last 3 starts. Ubaldo is a big underdog tonight with Price on the mound opposite him, but he does have nice upside thanks to his K-potential. I think he makes a nice contrarian play in a GPP. Rating = 6
David Price – Price throws strikes, in fact he throws more strikes than any other pitcher in baseball. This allows him to pitch deep into games, but it can also lead to some trouble. This season Price has a 4.44 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and a K/9 of 10.3. I really like his matchup tonight against a short-handed Orioles’ lineup that will be missing 2 of it’s best hitters in Matt Wieters and Chris Davis. Editor’s Note – Wieters is returning to tonight’s lineup, and he’s actually had success over his career against Price. Price’s value doesn’t take much of a hit, but it’s something to consider nonetheless. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Adam Jones – I’m putting Jones here as a GPP special. Jones’ price is depressed across the industry and he is coming off of a 2-HR performance against the Rays last night. Price has given up the long ball this season and Jones could get a hold of a fastball if he leaves it over the plate.
Additional Plays: None
David Price
Matt Joyce – Joyce was a bit of a disappointment last night with his attractive matchup against Norris, but we have to have a short memory in DFS. Joyce has another nice matchup tonight against the right-hander Jimenez. Joyce is batting .321 against RH pitching and is batting .395 at home this season.
Additional Plays: Evan Longoria
Colorado at Texas
| Colorado | Texas | ||||||||
| Franklin Morales | Vegas Moneyline | Matt Harrison | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | TEX (-130) | LEFT | 9.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.232 | 0.558 | 0.279 | 24.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.222 | 0.578 | 0.266 | 50.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.295 | 0.874 | 0.390 | 15.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.338 | 0.922 | 0.420 | 11.1% |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs L | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Franklin Morales – Morales is not a great daily fantasy baseball pitcher. He has a decent K-rate, but he has an ERA over 5.00 and he really struggles against RH batters (.390 wOBA). Even though this Rangers’ offense has been dormant in this series, I will be steering clear of Morales tonight. He is an underdog in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs. Rating = 3
Matt Harrison – Harrison has made 2 starts this season and hasn’t looked great thus far. He has given up 13 hits (10 in his last start) and has an ERA of 4.35. Tonight he faces the Rockies who are ranked 1st against LH pitching this season with a .387 wOBA. With the way this Rockies’ lineup is hitting, you should not be taking any pitchers against them right now. Rating = 2
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
Carlos Gonzalez – Tulo is the obvious play here, but I really like Cargo tonight even in a lefty/lefty matchup. Cargo hits both LH and RH pitching well and has been locked in over the last week. He had a big game in Globe Life last night and is quite a bit cheaper than Tulo.
Additional Plays: Troy Tulowitzki, Drew Stubbs, Brandon Barnes
Texas
Adrian Beltre – As mentioned above, Morales is giving up a .390 wOBA to RH batters. Beltre has homered in back to back games and is the top 3B on the schedule today. He’s basically been their entire offense in the last two games, but maybe the rest of the Rangers’ lineup can get going tonight.
Additional Plays: Alex Rios, Prince Fielder, Elvis Andrus