MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 29th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
NY Mets at Philadelphia
| NY Mets | Philadelphia | ||||||||
| Jonathon Niese | Vegas Moneyline | Cole Hamels | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | PHI (-150) | LEFT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.229 | 0.615 | 0.281 | 17.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.694 | 0.310 | 24.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.288 | 0.746 | 0.335 | 16.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.684 | 0.308 | 21.7% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP  | NYM vs L | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jonathon Niese – Niese has really struggled on the road over the last two season. In 10 road starts last season he posted a 5.27 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP. He is facing a Phillies lineup that has been very good against LH pitching this season. Niese is a large underdog and should be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4
Cole Hamels – Hamels pitched pretty well in his first start of the season, especially considering the fact that it was on the road against the Dodgers. Hamels allowed 2 earned runs over 6 innings of work while striking out 5 batters. He only threw 86 pitches in that game, but I expect the Phillies to let him get up into the 90’s today. Hamels faces a Mets lineup that features a lot of LH batters which bodes well for the lefty Hamels. I think Hamels makes a terrific cash game play. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
New York Mets
David Wright – As I always like to say, I only use BvP stats to confirm what I already think is a favorable matchup. Wright has always hit LH pitching well and has had Hamels’ number in the past. Wright has faced him 63 times and has 22 hits including 5 HR’s and 3 doubles. His OPS against Hamels is over 1.00.
Additional Plays: Eric Young
Philadelphia
Marlon Byrd – Byrd has always hit LH pitching well and this season is no different. He is batting .364 against southpaws with a .962 OPS. Byrd has a nice matchup against Niese who gave up a .335 wOBA to RH batters last season.
Additional Plays: Carlos Ruiz, Jimmy Rollins
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Charlie Morton | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Tillman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-133) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.301 | 0.749 | 0.366 | 16.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.740 | 0.328 | 19.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.579 | 0.272 | 17.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.692 | 0.306 | 22.9% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Charlie Morton – Morton is good against RH batters and he is good at home. Tonight he faces an Orioles lineup that is littered with LH batters and he will be facing them on the road in Camden Yards. Morton has a 4.33 ERA on the season and doesn’t have a high enough K-rate to make up for the bad matchup against the Orioles. Rating = 4
Chris Tillman – Through 5 starts this season, Tillman has a 3.38 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.6. He is a decent favorite tonight in a game that features a fairly low run total. I think Tillman deserves consideration as a GPP play, but there are better options for cash games. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Pedro Alvarez – Alvarez has terrific power against RH pitching. While he doesn’t hit for a high average, when he makes contact, the ball goes a long ways. Last season he hit 33 HR’s off of RH pitching and he has a favorable matchup against Tillman who gave up a .328 wOBA to LH batters last season.
Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen
Baltimore
Nick Markakis – Markakis doesn’t make the highlighted plays section of the Grind Down very often, but with Chris Davis on the shelf, he is arguably the next best LH bat on the Orioles. As mentioned above, Morton really struggles against LH batters as he gave up a .366 wOBA to lefties last season.
Additional Plays: Matt Wieters, David Lough
Seattle at NY Yankees
| Seattle | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Chris Young | Vegas Moneyline | CC Sabathia | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYY (-170) | LEFT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.670 | 0.298 | 16.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.647 | 0.297 | 29.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.788 | 0.363 | 6.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.278 | 0.794 | 0.349 | 17.4% |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs L | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Young – Young has a 3.50 ERA on the season but only has 10 K’s in 18 innings of work. He has given up 7 earned runs in his last 2 starts and should have a tough time with this Yankees lineup that has really started to hit well over the last 2 weeks. Young is a sizable underdog in what should be a high scoring game. Rating = 3
CC Sabathia – Sabathia has 2 quality starts in a row and while that is promising, he has pitched out of trouble in both of those games. Sabathia has lost a lot of velocity off his fastball and has become more of a location pitcher. That means that when his command is off, he is going to get shelled. He still owns a high K-rate, but I think he is better served as a GPP play tonight against the Mariners. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Corey Hart – Hart has great power against LH pitching (.309 batting average with a .966 OPS over the last 3 seasons) and a nice matchup against Sabathia who gave up a .349 wOBA to RH batters last season. I think the Mariners will be able to get plenty of men on base, the only question is whether they can bring them home.
Additional Plays: Justin Smoak, Abraham Almonte
New York Yankees
Carlos Beltran – The Yankees will be a popular stack option tonight and for good reason. Young is giving up a .713 OPS to all batters this season and I expect the Yankees to put up a big number against him. Beltran is batting .296 against RH pitching and .349 at Yankee Stadium this season.
Additional Plays: Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Mark Teixeira
Atlanta at Miami
| Atlanta | Miami | ||||||||
| Alex Wood | Vegas Moneyline | Jose Fernandez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | MIA (-130) | RIGHT | 6.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.601 | 0.278 | 27.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.202 | 0.571 | 0.267 | 26.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.646 | 0.291 | 23.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.165 | 0.453 | 0.209 | 31.8% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Alex Wood – This will be a battle of two very good young pitchers. Wood does not have the big name that Fernandez does, but he is certainly no slouch. This season he has a 1.54 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.0. The total of this game is only set at 6.0 runs and even though he may have trouble receiving run support, I think he makes a great play on sites that don’t value a win from the starting pitcher heavily. Rating = 8
Jose Fernandez – Fernandez has a 1.99 ERA on the season with a 0.93 WHIP. While those are very impressive numbers, his K-rate is what really sticks out. He has struck out 47 batters in 31 innings which equates to a K/9 of 13.6. He just faced this same Braves lineup in Atlanta and struck out 14 batters over 8 scoreless innings. He is the top pitcher on the board today and should be targeted in all leagues. Rating = 10
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta / Miami
- The total of this game is set at only 6.0 runs. I don’t expect either team to get anything going offensively and I wouldn’t be surprised if this game ended up being a 2-1 ball game. I will be avoiding all batters here.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati
| Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati | ||||||||
| Jeff Samardzija | Vegas Moneyline | Alfredo Simon | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CIN (-174) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.260 | 0.755 | 0.335 | 23.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.201 | 0.648 | 0.301 | 15.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.665 | 0.306 | 22.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.206 | 0.521 | 0.249 | 18.4% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jeff Samardzija – These two pitchers were slated to start yesterday, but the game was postponed due to rain so they will both start tonight. Samardzija is a high strikeout pitcher that has really pitched well this season. In his first 5 starts, he has a 1.57 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.9. Last season his K/9 was right around 9.0. Samardzija is a small underdog here at +138, but he has a high enough K-rate that he deserves roster consideration in GPP’s. Samardzija is a pitcher that could easily pick up a win with only a couple of runs to support him and he always has the potential to strike out 10 batters. Rating = 6
Alfredo Simon – After pitching out of the bullpen for the last two seasons, Simon has looked very comfortable as a starter. This season he has a 1.30 ERA with an even more impressive 0.96 WHIP. His K/9 is only 5.9 this season, but he is facing a Cubs offense that has been in a major slump. Not only have the Cubs not been hitting, but they have struck out the 6th most times of any team in baseball this season. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Anthony Rizzo – Even though the Cubbies haven’t been able to string together hits lately, Rizzo is having himself a terrific season. Imagine what he could do with a couple of batters in this lineup to protect him. Rizzo is batting .284 on the season and has nice power against RH pitching (.796 OPS last season).
Additional Plays: Starlin Castro
Cincinnati
Joey Votto – Votto is batting .359 against RH pitching this season and has been on fire at home. In 31 at bats in Great American this season, Votto is batting .452 with 7 XBH’s. Samardzija also struggles against LH batters as he gave up a .335 wOBA to lefties last season.
Additional Plays: Jay Bruce