MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 27th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-05-27 16:36:41

Baltimore at Milwaukee

Baltimore					Milwaukee
Wei-Yin Chen		Vegas Moneyline			Matt Garza		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		MIL (-130)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.383	0.890	0.387	9.4%	SP vs. Left	0.265	0.757	0.344	14.9%
SP vs. Right	0.273	0.714	0.314	17.1%	SP vs. Right	0.244	0.621	0.278	20.6%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Wei-Yin Chen – Chen is a pitcher that you can easily avoid tonight. He has an ERA over 4.00 on the season with a low K-rate. He also has a tough matchup against the Brewers who have a lot of powerful RHB’s in their lineup. He has limited upside and a bad matchup. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5800 FD, $11131 DS, $12800 DD, $5900 DK, $79200 FF, $16100 SS, $12400 FTD

• Matt Garza – Garza has given up at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 5 starts. He now has a 4.92 ERA on the season and his strikeouts have been down. His K/9 is only 7.0 this season and the Orioles will have Chris Davis back in their lineup tonight which hurts his cause as well. He’s better suited as a GPP play tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6300 FD, $11946 DS, $15150 DD, $7400 DK, $73000 FF, $19100 SS, $14000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Chris Davis – Davis will be back in the lineup tonight after being on paternity leave the last 2 games. Over the last 7 days, Davis is batting .421 with an OPS of 1.70. He is one of the few players in daily fantasy that has multi-HR upside.

Additional Plays: Adam Jones

Milwaukee

Ryan Braun – Braun is batting .308 with an OPS of .830 against LH pitching this season. He has a terrific matchup against the LHP Chen who does not strike out a lot of batters. Chen is giving up a .314 wOBA to RHB’s this season.

Additional Plays: Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, Jean Segura

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox

Cleveland					Chicago White Sox
Justin Masterson		Vegas Moneyline			Chris Sale		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CWS (-165)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.319	0.897	0.398	13.4%	SP vs. Left	0.000	0.080	0.055	40.0%
SP vs. Right	0.206	0.562	0.287	26.0%	SP vs. Right	0.187	0.488	0.227	29.6%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Justin Masterson – Masterson has really struggled in his last 3 starts. He’s given up a combined 17 runs over those outings and his command has clearly been off with 11 walks over those starts. At this point, I will recommend avoiding Masterson until he can prove that he can find the strike zone. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6300 FD, $10106 DS, $11750 DD, $6000 DK, $51500 FF, $13800 SS, $11200 FTD

• Chris Sale – Sale only threw 86 pitches in his first start back, but managed to strike out 10 batters over 6 shutout innings. His pitch count will likely increase tonight which helps bolster his fantasy value. I love the matchup against the Indians who are ranked 29th against LH pitching with a team .288 wOBA. Rating = 9

Salaries: $9400 FD, $23715 DS, $21000 DD, $11600 DK, $146400 FF, $33000 SS, $16800 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball and this Indians’ team does not hit LH pitching well. Avoid all Indians in your lineups tonight.

Chicago White Sox

Adam Dunn – Dunn doesn’t make the GD very often, but when he does, he hits dongs. Dunn still has great power against RH pitching and he has a nice track record against Masterson in his career as he is 13/43 with 4 XBH’s off of him. If Dunn can be patient, Masterson will either walk him or give him something to hit.

Additional Plays: Adam Eaton, Alexei Ramirez

Houston at Kansas City

Houston					Kansas City
Collin McHugh		Vegas Moneyline			Jeremy Guthrie		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		KCR (-136)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.183	0.480	0.226	24.7%	SP vs. Left	0.265	0.830	0.362	11.5%
SP vs. Right	0.214	0.679	0.309	30.2%	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.578	0.273	9.4%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Collin McHugh – McHugh has pitched well this season with a 3.32 ERA and a K/9 of 9.7. Tonight he faces a Royals’ offense that is ranked 24th against RH pitching this season. The issue is that the Royals strike out fewer times than any team in baseball. In daily fantasy baseabll, strikeouts are king and I think there are much better matchups on the board. Rating = 5

Salaries: $4400 FD, $14610 DS, $13500 DD, $8000 DK, $40000 FF, $23400 SS, $9700 FTD

• Jeremy Guthrie – Guthrie really struggles against LHB’s. This season he is giving up a .362 wOBA to lefties this season. While the Astros are not a great team offensively, they can have big outings every once in a while (see Yordano Ventura). Guthrie makes a nice play in a GPP on a multi-pitcher site, but I’m not sure I will be using him in any cash games. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5000 FD, $10312 DS, $10150 DD, $5700 DK, $65100 FF, $13500 SS, $12000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Jason Castro – As mentioned above, Guthrie is giving up a .362 wOBA to LH batters this season. Castro has great power against RH pitching and is a terrific value option at catcher tonight.

Additional Plays: Alex Presley, Dexter Fowler

Kansas City

Alex Gordon – While he’s not my favorite OF play of the day, he’s facing a rookie RHP at home and his price across the industry is very affordable. Gordon is in play in cash games tonight.

Additional Plays: Eric Hosmer

Texas at Minnesota

Texas					Minnesota
Yu Darvish		Vegas Moneyline			Phil Hughes		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TEX (-142)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.229	0.614	0.278	27.9%	SP vs. Left	0.198	0.534	0.237	22.7%
SP vs. Right	0.193	0.545	0.254	29.2%	SP vs. Right	0.325	0.788	0.347	19.5%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Yu Darvish – Considering the way Hughes was pitching last season, it’s hard to believe that Darvish is only a -140 favorite against him, but Hughes has had a terrific bounce back season. While Darvish isn’t the biggest favorite on the board, he has as much upside as any pitcher. Darvish is sporting a 2.35 ERA with a K/9 of 10.5 and he faces a pretty average Twins’ offense tonight. Rating = 9

Salaries: $11000 FD, $26256 DS, $20250 DD, $11200 DK, $139400 FF, $32100 SS, $18900 FTD

• Phil Hughes – Hughes has been on my radar in his last few starts and it has paid off nicely. He’s only given up 4 earned runs combined over his last 5 starts. It’s hard to take Hughes in cash games tonight considering the fact that he is facing the Rangers and Darvish is on the mound, but he is one of my favorite tournament plays. Rating 5

Salaries: $6400 FD, $15969 DS, $14950 DD, $8500 DK, $77800 FF, $24700 SS, $12500 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Alex Rios – Rios is swinging a hot bat with a .452 batting average and an OPS of 1.08 over the last 7 days. He also has great numbers against Hughes in his career: 11/23 with 4 XBH’s.

Additional Plays: Shin-Soo Choo

Minnesota

*You can safely avoid the Twins’ bats tonight against Darvish who has held both LH and RH batters under a .280 wOBA this season.

NY Yankees at St. Louis

NY Yankees					St. Louis
David Phelps		Vegas Moneyline			Lance Lynn		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		STL (-140)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.146	0.521	0.261	28.8%	SP vs. Left	0.278	0.771	0.346	17.4%
SP vs. Right	0.301	0.798	0.361	17.6%	SP vs. Right	0.234	0.591	0.272	26.3%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• David Phelps – Phelps really pitched well in his last start. He threw 7 innings and struck out 8 batters while only giving up 2 earned runs. I’m still not sold on him as a starter though and this Cardinals’ offense has really been heating up against RH pitching. His price is very cheap on FD and DK, but I just don’t see it tonight against the Cardinals. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5400 FD, $13750 DS, $10300 DD, $5600 DK, $75800 FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Lance Lynn – Lynn has had one dominant start this season and then has pitched pretty well in his other outings. Through 10 starts he has a 3.60 ERA with a K/9 of 8.8. He faces a Yankees’ lineup that has been pretty average against RH pitching this season with a team .311 wOBA. Lynn is a good play tonight, but not a great one. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7900 FD, $15204 DS, $15050 DD, $8300 DK, $94700 FF, $23000 SS, $14800 FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury is still cheap across the industry and I will continue to target him heavily in cash games until his price goes up. His numbers are down across the board, but he’s still a terrific batter against RH pitching and he’s a threat to steal a base every time he gets on.

Additional Plays: Brian McCann, Brett Gardner

St. Louis

Allen Craig – These Cardinals’ bats make terrific cash game plays tonight. They are cheap across the industry and have really been heating up against RH pitching. Craig is finally starting to heat up. Over the last 7 days, he is batting .345 with an OPS of .803.

Additional Plays: Matt Adams, Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter

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