MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 6th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Minnesota at Cleveland
| Minnesota | Cleveland | ||||||||
| Samuel Deduno | Vegas Moneyline | Josh Tomlin | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CLE (-147) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.400 | 0.733 | 0.355 | 0.0% | ||||
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP  | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Samuel Deduno – Deduno will be making his first start of the season after 7 appearances out of the bullpen. Deduno has started 33 games over the last 2 seasons and has an ERA just over 4.00 with a 1.40 WHIP and a K/9 of 5.5 over that stretch. He comes into this game as a decent sized underdog. There is little upside with Deduno tonight. Rating = 3
Josh Tomlin – Tomlin will also be making his first start in the last two seasons. In 2012, he started 16 games and posted a 6.36 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP and a K/9 of 4.9. Most people in Cleveland thought that Trevor Bauer would draw the start here as Tomlin has been a below average pitcher and is coming off of Tommy John surgery. Tomlin is going to have to prove a lot of people wrong to get another start in the rotation. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Jason Kubel – Since 2011, Tomlin has given up a .280 batting average and an OPS of .826 to LH batters. Kubel is batting .319 against RH pitching this season with 6 XBH’s.
Additional Plays: Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe
Cleveland
Carlos Santana – Even though Deduno is a RH pitcher, he has given up a much higher wOBA and OPS to RH batters than he has to LH batters. It will be interesting to see if the Indians have their switch-hitters bat from the right side. Either way, Santana makes a nice play at 3B. His price is still affordable and he has 3 HR’s over his last 7 games.
Additional Plays: Michael Brantley, Mike Aviles, Yan Gomes
San Francisco at Pittsburgh
| San Francisco | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Tim Hudson | Vegas Moneyline | Charlie Morton | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SFG (-110) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.639 | 0.289 | 16.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.301 | 0.749 | 0.366 | 16.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.234 | 0.608 | 0.270 | 20.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.579 | 0.272 | 17.2% |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Tim Hudson – I’m not sure anyone saw that 11-10 shootout coming last night. Tonight’s game should be a much different story with Hudson and Morton on the mound. Hudson has pitched great for the Giants this season with a 2.17 ERA and 31 K’s over 45 innings of work. The Pirates are ranked 21st in the majors against RH pitching with a .300 wOBA. Hudson makes a solid cash game play. Rating = 7
Charlie Morton – Morton pitches well at home and he pitches well against RH batters. Both bode well for him tonight as this game will be at PNC Park and the Giants’ best two hitters hit from the right side of the plate. Morton’s K-rate has slowly increased over the past few seasons and with a cheap price across the industry, I think he makes a nice contrarian play. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
Angel Pagan – Morton is giving up a .366 wOBA to LH batters this season and Pagan, who is a switch hitter, has had Morton’s number in the past going 9/12 with 3 XBH’s. If you are targeting any Giants batters, target the ones that can hit from the left side of the plate.
Additional Plays: Brandon Crawford
Pittsburgh
Tim Hudson is holding LH and RH batters under a .290 wOBA this season. He has pitched well both at home and on the road. I will not be targeting any Pirates’ batters outside of Pedro Alvarez in GPP’s.
LA Dodgers at Washington
| LA Dodgers | Washington | ||||||||
| Clayton Kershaw | Vegas Moneyline | Blake Treinen | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | LAD (-147) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.168 | 0.468 | 0.216 | 41.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 0.674 | 0.305 | 19.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.202 | 0.524 | 0.239 | 21.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.304 | 0.712 | 0.329 | 16.4% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LAD vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw will get the start tonight after missing the last 6 weeks with a back injury. Kershaw looked good in his last rehab start, but only threw 86 pitches and I am a little worried that he could possibly be on a pitch count tonight as the Dodgers want to play it safe with Kershaw. Kershaw is very expensive and I will be one of the few that will be fading him tonight. Not only is the pitch count a concern, but the Nationals are the best team in the majors against LH pitching this season (.387 wOBA). Rating = 7
Blake Treinen – Doug Fister was scheduled to start today, but his start will get pushed back making the way for the rookie Treinen. He has only made 3 big-league appearances (all out of the bullpen). He’s pitched well, but the sample size is extremely small. The Dodgers are big favorites in this game and I would rather target a more reliable option at pitcher. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
L.A. Dodgers
Adrian Gonzalez – A-Gon is batting .305 with a 1.08 OPS against RH pitching this season. He makes pitchers pay for any little mistakes that they make and I have a feeling that Treinen may make a few in his first career major league start.
Additional Plays: Hanley Ramirez, Dee Gordon
Washington
Jayson Werth – Werth is not a recommended cash game play, but he does make a terrific tournament play. He has always hit LH pitching well and he does have 2 HR’s off of Kershaw in his career.
Additional Plays: None
Toronto at Philadelphia
| Toronto | Philadelphia | ||||||||
| Drew Hutchison | Vegas Moneyline | Cole Hamels | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PHI (-122) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.260 | 0.754 | 0.330 | 25.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.266 | 0.721 | 0.323 | 23.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.672 | 0.306 | 30.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.687 | 0.310 | 21.5% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs L | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Drew Hutchison – Hutchison is a very high strikeout pitcher. He has a K/9 of 10.4 this season. If he could manage to get his ERA down, he would be a terrific fantasy option. Tonight he faces the Phillies who are ranked 25th against RH pitching this season. Hutchison is a small underdog here, but the total is only set at 7.5 runs. I think he makes a terrific GPP play. Rating = 6
Cole Hamels – Hamels struggled in his first start of the season. While he struck out 8 batters, he gave up 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings. He is hoping for a better start this time around, but he will have to do it against a tough Blue Jays lineup. In my opinion, Hutchison offers greater value at his much cheaper price tag. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Jose Reyes – You all know how much I love BvP (sarcasm), but I do think it has merit when the sample size is large enough. That’s the case tonight with Reyes who is 22/56 with a .443 OBP against Hamels in his career. Reyes is also finally starting to heat up and it’s a nice time to target him before his price goes up.
Additional Plays: Melky Cabrera
Philadelphia
Ryan Howard – Howard has been a boom or bust option over the last couple of years, but he does deserve consideration in GPP’s tonight against Hutchison who is giving up a .330 wOBA this season. Howard has nice power against RH pitching and has hit much better at home over the last few seasons.
Additional Plays: Chase Utley
Houston at Detroit
| Houston | Detroit | ||||||||
| Brett Oberholtzer | Vegas Moneyline | Robbie Ray | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | DET (-185) | LEFT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.693 | 0.310 | 16.5% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.720 | 0.316 | 16.4% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs L | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Brett Oberholtzer – Oberholtzer has a 5.63 ERA on the season and has given up 12 earned runs in his last 2 starts. He is facing a Tigers offense that has a .363 wOBA against LH pitching this season which is the 4th highest in baseball. I could keep going, but I’ll save you some time and just tell you to avoid Oberholtzer. Rating = 1
Robbie Ray – Ray was acquired by the Tigers in the Doug Fister trade and it’s fitting that both pitchers will be making their first starts of the season tonight. For Ray, this will be his MLB debut. He has really pitched well in the minors this season with a 1.59 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. If you are going to make you major league debut, there are few better opponents to face than the strikeout happy Astros. If the price is cheap enough, I think you can use him in both cash games and GPP’s. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Houston
Dexter Fowler – I expect Ray to pitch well here, but anything can happen in a pitcher’s major league debut. Fowler is a nice punt play in the OF and has a nice combination of both speed and power.
Additional Plays: Jose Altuve
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera – Cabrera’s 10-game hitting streak came to an end last night, but I have a feeling he is going to start a new streak tonight. Over the last 3 seasons, he has hit .368 with an OPS of 1.21 against LH pitching. He’s the top 1B on the board tonight.
Additional Plays: Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Torii Hunter