MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 16th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
| Tampa Bay | Baltimore |
| Jake Odorizzi | Vegas Moneyline | Miguel Gonzalez | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | TBR (-118) | RIGHT | 8.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.300 | 0.830 | 0.369 | 15.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.706 | 0.315 | 17.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.644 | 0.285 | 19.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.258 | 0.765 | 0.338 | 15.4% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP  | TBR vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
- Jake Odorizzi – This game got rained out last night, but the yesterday’s starters will take the mount today. Odorizzi pitched well in his first start of the season and then got shelled by the Royals in his second start. He gave up 10 hits and 7 earned runs in only 5 innings. Tonight he travels to Baltimore to take on the Orioles in Camden Yards. This game is set as a pick ‘em, but the run total is set at 8.5 runs and Odorizzi just doesn’t provide a high enough K-rate to make up for the bad matchup against the Orioles. Rating = 3
- Miguel Gonzalez – Gonzalez has looked awfully rusty in his first two starts this season. He is sporting a 9.64 ERA with only 4 K’s over 9 innings of work. The Rays aren’t the best offensive team in the American League, but they are certainly capable of putting up a big number against Gonzalez. Gonzalez pitched slightly better at home (3.48 ERA) than he did on the road (4.06 ERA), but should be avoided until he can get things turned around. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
- Evan Longoria – Last season Gonzalez actually gave up a higher wOBA to RH batters (.338) than he did to LH batters (.315). Longoria is off to a hot start this season and has always hit RH pitching well. He makes a solid play at 3B if the price is right.
Baltimore
- Chris Davis – Odorizzi really struggled to get LH batters out last season. He gave up a .369 wOBA and an OPS of .830 to LH batters. We all know the type of power that Davis has in his bat. Even though he only has 1 HR this season, he has still been a very productive fantasy player. Last season he had an OPS of 1.14 against RH pitching.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati |
| Francisco Liriano | Vegas Moneyline | Johnny Cueto | Vegas Over/Under |
| LEFT | CIN (-125) | RIGHT | 7.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.146 | 0.344 | 0.161 | 28.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.208 | 0.581 | 0.264 | 21.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.687 | 0.309 | 23.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.193 | 0.597 | 0.271 | 24.4% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs L |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Francisco Liriano – Liriano is the tale two pitchers. At PNC Park he has been dominant during his time with the Pirates, but on the road he has posted a 4.33 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP. He does boast an extremely high K/9 of 9.1, but he will be on the road today in the hitter friendly ballpark that is Great American. Liriano’s ability to strike out batters gives him value as a GPP play, but he should be avoided in cash games. Rating = 6
- Johnny Cueto – In Cueto’s 3 starts this season, he has looked as dominant as ever. He has a 2.14 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and 23 K’s over 21 innings pitched. The Pirates are a very scrappy lineup that can provide some tough outs, but Cueto is locked in right now and pitched very well against the Pirates last season. Not only that, but Cueto posted a 1.91 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP at home. Cueto is a terrific play in all leagues. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
- Cueto has been unhittable at home over the past two seasons and has dominated this Pirates lineup in recent starts. He also held batters to a combined .268 wOBA last season which is among the best in baseball. Avoid all Pirates’ bats today.
Cincinnati
- Todd Frazier – Frazier has great power against LH pitching and also has a nice track record against Liriano. Frazier had an OPS of .784 against LH pitching last season and will likely be batting clean-up. He is cheap across the industry and makes a sneaky play here.
St. Louis at Milwaukee
| St. Louis | Milwaukee |
| Joe Kelly | Vegas Moneyline | Wily Peralta | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | MIL (-112) | RIGHT | 8.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.701 | 0.314 | 16.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.730 | 0.330 | 17.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 0.666 | 0.313 | 13.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.274 | 0.690 | 0.318 | 15.7% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Joe Kelly – Kelly seems to pitch his way out of trouble every single game. In his last start he gave up 6 hits, but did not allow an earned run. His WHIP of 1.44 this season is much more telling of the way he has been pitching than his extremely low ERA of 0.79. These hits are going to hurt him eventually and his K/9 of 5.7 is not high enough to warrant fantasy consideration against the Brewers in Miller Park. Rating = 4
- Wily Peralta – Peralta is a very streaky pitcher. There were times last season when you had to target him in every start and other times where you wanted to stack whatever team he was pitching to. He’s off to a great start this season with a 2.25 ERA while holding batters to a .205 batting average. The main issue with Peralta today is his matchup. The Cardinals have such a talented lineup that it is unnerving to target pitchers against them. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
- Allen Craig – Craig’s price is depressed across the industry. He is dirt cheap on both DS and FD and is finally starting to hit after a rough start to the season. He has 3 hits in his last 3 game and is playing in the hitter friendly Miller Park. It’s the perfect time to buy low on the man with two first names.
Milwaukee
- Ryan Braun – Kelly gave up a .313+ wOBA to both LH and RH batters last season. If the Brewers can manage to string together some hits today, they should make Kelly’s start a short one. Braun has an OPS of .922 against RH pitching over the last 3 seasons.
NY Mets at Arizona
| NY Mets | Arizona |
| Dillon Gee | Vegas Moneyline | Brandon McCarthy | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | ARI (-140) | RIGHT | 9.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.284 | 0.808 | 0.356 | 15.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.288 | 0.732 | 0.324 | 16.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.649 | 0.292 | 17.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.299 | 0.777 | 0.350 | 9.4% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Dillon Gee – Gee is a pitcher that I will be picking on heavily in the early leagues. Gee posted a 4.41 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP on the road last season and is off to a slow start this season. Today he faces the Diamonbacks in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. This game has one of the highest run totals on the schedule (9.0) and Gee is a sizable underdog (+130). Rating = 3
- Brandon McCarthy – McCarthy likely won’t fair much better than Gee. McCarthy has given up at least 5 earned runs in each of his first 3 starts this season and is facing a red hot Mets lineup that has really enjoyed playing in Chase Field. McCarthy is the favorite here, but I’m not sure he will last long enough to even be eligible for the win. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
- David Wright – Wright continues to be cheap across the industry and I will continue to target him heavily in this series. He has a 6-game hitting streak going and an excellent matchup against McCarthy who gave up a .350 wOBA and a .777 OPS to RH batters last season.
Arizona
- Miguel Montero – Montero is batting .280 this season with 8 RBI’s. He has been batting clean-up against RH pitching and makes an excellent play today against Gee. Montero is batting over .400 at home this season and Gee gave up a .356 wOBA to LH batters last season.
Chicago Cubs at NY Yankees
| Chicago Cubs | NY Yankees |
| Jason Hammel | Vegas Moneyline | Masahiro Tanaka | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | NYY (-200) | RIGHT | 8.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.291 | 0.856 | 0.377 | 14.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.167 | 0.460 | 0.205 | 19.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.656 | 0.295 | 18.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.320 | 0.840 | 0.363 | 48.0% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jason Hammel – Hammel got off to a great start last season and has looked sharp in his first two starts this season. He has only allowed 4 earned runs while striking out 11 batters in 13 innings. His biggest problem is getting out LH batters as he gave up a .377 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season. The Yankees lineup is littered with LH batters today, in fact 7 of their 9 players in the lineup can hit from the left side. Rating = 4
- Masahiro Tanaka – Tanaka has pitched well in his first two major league starts, but there is certainly room for improvement. The Cubs lineup is a lot less imposing than the Blue Jays and Orioles’ lineups. Tanaka is going to have one of the highest K-rates in baseball this season. He already has 18 K’s in 14 innings of work. He is a huge favorite (-200) and should be targeted in all leagues.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago
- There aren’t any batters that I’m targeting against Tanaka here. Anthony Rizzo could be a decent tournament play with the short porch in right, but I’m expecting a lot of swinging strikes from the Cubs today.
NY Yankees
- Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury has a great matchup against the RH Hammel. Ellsbury is batting .362 this season and has the green light on the base pads. He’s already stolen 6 bases today and is one of the safer cash game plays on the board because you can rely on him to give you some kind of production.
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
