MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 2nd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Kansas City at Detroit
| Kansas City | Detroit |
| Jason Vargas | Vegas Moneyline | Max Scherzer | Vegas Over/Under |
| LEFT | DET (-185) | RIGHT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.327 | 0.787 | 0.345 | 13.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.222 | 0.642 | 0.283 | 26.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.256 | 0.735 | 0.331 | 18.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.165 | 0.485 | 0.222 | 31.6% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP  | KCR vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jason Vargas – Vargas is a huge underdog today (+170) against the Tigers. Last season Vargas started 24 games and posted a 4.02 ERA while giving up a wOBA of over .335. Vargas also really struggled on the road. This does not bode well for his fantasy outlook today against the Tigers who were one of the best in the majors last season against LH pitching. With the addition of Kinsler into this lineup, it only makes the Tigers an even more formidable opponent for LH pitchers. Rating = 2
- Max Scherzer – Scherzer had a pretty forgettable Spring, but it’s really tough to gauge pitchers performance other than their velocity and command and both looked good for Scherzer. Last season Scherzer was dominant with a 2.90 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a K-Rate of 10.1/9 IP. He draws a decent matchup against the Royals, although the Royals were not a team that struck out often last season. Scherzer is the top option on the board today if you want an ace in your cash games, but you are certainly going to have to pay up him. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
- Last season Scherzer held RH bats to a .222 wOBA and LH bats to a .283 batting average. Neither are numbers that you want to target in daily fantasy baseball. The Royals are huge underdogs in this game and the total is only set at 7.5 runs. That should give you an idea of how many runs Vegas is expected them to score today.
Detroit
- Miguel Cabrera – Miggy and LH pitching go together like peanut butter and jelly. Last season Miggy hit for a .368 batting average and an OPS of 1.21 against lefties. Those numbers are just ridiculous. Not only that, but Vargas is an average pitcher at best and Cabrera should take advantage of any small mistake Vargas makes. Miggy is the top overall hitter tonight if you can afford him.
- Ian Kinsler – Kinsler is another player that mashes LH pitching. He hit for a .306 average with an OPS of .814 against LH pitching last season. Kinsler went 0/4 in his Tigers’ debut on Opening Day, but this is a terrific spot for him and if he can get on base, the big bats behind him should be able to bring him home.
Atlanta at Milwaukee
| Atlanta | Milwaukee |
| Aaron Harang | Vegas Moneyline | Matt Garza | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | MIL (-132) | RIGHT | 8.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.791 | 0.346 | 15.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.271 | 0.724 | 0.324 | 21.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.276 | 0.778 | 0.343 | 21.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.673 | 0.305 | 19.9% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Aaron Harang – The Harang-atang will be a fill-in starter for the Braves while Mike Minor and Gavin Floyd are on the DL. Harang is coming off of an awful season in which he posted an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.35. Harang also gave up 26 HR’s last season in 26 starts which made him a great candidate to employ a stack against. With Miller Park giving up the 5th most HR’s of any stadium last season, we could see Harang get off to a terrible start to his 2014 season. Rating = 3
- Matt Garza – The Cubs regret not signing Garza to a long-term deal and the Brewers have to be smiling from ear to ear. Garza is a high strikeout pitcher (K-Rate of 7.9/9 IP last season) that can really dominate opposing batters. Garza posted a 3.82 ERA last season while holding opponents to a .253 batting average. His biggest weakness is against LH batters. Last year, he gave up a wOBA of .324 to LH hitters including 10 of his 20 HR’s. With all of the powerful LH bats on the Braves, I’m just not crazy about Garza here. He will get his K’s, but give up a few earned runs in the process. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
- Freddie Freeman – Hopefully everyone read yesterday’s Grind Down and put both Freeman and Heyward into their lineups. They combined for 3 HR’s yesterday in Miller Park. I like them both again today against Garza. Freeman dominated RH pitching last season with a .334 batting average and an OPS .958. He’s off to a hot start again this season and as I mentioned above, Miller Park surrenders plenty of HR’s.
- Jason Heyward – Heyward also got into the mix last night with a HR shot. Heyward is primed for a big season with the Braves and there are few lead-off hitters with as much power as Heyward has. Garza has not been great against LH bats over his career and Heyward makes a nice play in the OF. His price across the industry is still a little low for the upside that he brings to the table.
Milwaukee
- Ryan Braun – Once again, hopefully you read yesterday’s Grind Down and got Carlos Gomez into a few of your lineups. Ryan Braun is the top play on the Brew Crew today. While Braun has more power against LH pitching, he still had an OPS of .777 against RH pitching last season and has always had good home splits. Harang is equally as bad against RH hitters (.343 wOBA) as he is against LH hitters (.346 wOBA).
- Carlos Gomez – I’m going back to the well with this one. Gomez had a nice game last night and will lead-off again today against Harang. Gomez hit for a .274 batting average against RH pitching last season, but 36 of his 40 stolen bases came off of RH pitching so if he can get on base, look for him to be aggressive.
Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
| Minnesota | Chicago White Sox |
| Kevin Correia | Vegas Moneyline | Felipe Paulino | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | CWS (-135) | RIGHT | 8.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.295 | 0.801 | 0.352 | 13.5% | SP vs. Left | | | | |
| SP vs. Right | 0.299 | 0.787 | 0.345 | 12.0% | SP vs. Right | | | | |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kevin Correia – Now that we are getting into the meat of the rotations, we are finding some much better matchups for batters. Correia is not a terrible real life pitcher (4.18 ERA last season and a 1.42 WHIP), but he is not a great pitcher in the world of daily fantasy baseball. Correia posted one of the lowest K-Rates in the majors last season as he struck out less than 5 batters per 9 innings. He also plays on the Twins and often doesn’t get run support. In daily fantasy baseball, you want to target high strike-out pitchers that should be in line for a win. That’s not the case with Correia. Rating = 2
- Felipe Paulino – Paulino hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2012 and if Spring ball is any indication of what we can expect this season, it’s going to be a very long season for Paulino. That said, Paulino was on his way to a nice season in 2012 before he got injured. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 7 starts and held opponents to a .228 batting average. With so many questions surrounding him heading into the season, he is better served as a GPP play tonight against the Twins. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
- Joe Mauer – Mauer hasn’t quite lived up to his huge contract yet, but he is still comning off of a terrific year in which he hit for a .324 batting average. Mauer is not a huge HR-threat, but he gets on base often and hits plenty of doubles. In fact, 25% of his hits last season were doubles. I like the lefty/righty matchup for him today against Paulino.
Chicago White Sox
- Adam Eaton – Last season Correia gave up a wOBA of .352 to LH batters and I don’t mind taking a White Sox mini-stack in this one. Eaton is looking to have a big season with the White Sox and I really like him batting leadoff today. His price across the industry is cheap and he makes for a terrific cash game play.
- Jose Abreu – Abreu is going to be a household name in DFS here very soon. This impressive rookie posted huge power numbers while in Cuba and signed a $68 million deal before playing a single game in the majors. Abreu got off to a hot start in this major league debut by going 2/4 with a run and an RBI. Abreu will bat clean-up once again and should see plenty of RBI opportunities in this one.
Cleveland at Oakland
| Cleveland | Oakland |
| Corey Kluber | Vegas Moneyline | Scott Kazmir | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | OAK (-119) | LEFT | 8.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.278 | 0.743 | 0.331 | 22.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.226 | 0.573 | 0.253 | 24.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.692 | 0.309 | 22.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.275 | 0.787 | 0.349 | 23.9% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs L | Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Corey Kluber – This game was rained out last night, but the pitchers are the same so I will just keep the same analysis from yesterday’s Grind Down. Kluber really flew under the radar last season despite posting a 3.85 ERA with a K-rate of 8.3/9 IP. Kluber posted a few shutouts last season and was always under-owned because everyone kept waiting for him to come crashing back down to Earth. This could be a decent night to target him as a tournament play. The total for this game is only set at 7 runs and if he can get some run support, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pick up a win. Rating = 6
- Scott Kazmir – Scott Kazmir – Kazmir will make his first start as a member of the A’s as he played for the Indians last season (revenge game anyone?). Kazmir is coming off of his best season in 5 years, but still posted pretty pedestrian numbers across the board. He had an ERA over 4.00, he gave up a .262 batting average, and he gave up 19 HR’s. The one stat in his favor is his K-rate from a year ago which was just over 9/9 IP. I see Kazmir as a tournament play tonight, but he is much too risky to trust in cash games. Starting Kazmir in cash games always makes you feel a bit queasy once lineups lock. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
- Carlos Santana – Kazmir gave up a wOBA of .349 to RH batters last season which is a full hundred % points higher than that of his wOBA to LH batters. Santana has always hit lefties well and will be batting clean-up tonight. He’s my favorite play here by far.
Oakland
- Brandon Moss – Kluber’s biggest weakness is against LH batters and the A’s have plenty of them to throw at him tonight. While I like Kluber as a GPP play, I could easily see the A’s jumping on him early. Moss hit 26 of his 30 HR’s last season against RH pitching and should be batting clean-up tonight. His price puts him very much in play tonight.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
| Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh |
| Edwin Jackson | Vegas Moneyline | Charlie Morton | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | PIT (-160) | RIGHT | 7.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.294 | 0.803 | 0.366 | 19.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.314 | 0.784 | 0.382 | 17.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.270 | 0.734 | 0.325 | 15.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.222 | 0.536 | 0.249 | 17.4% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Edwin Jackson – Jackson is a fairly large underdog tonight against the Pirates, but the total is set at 7 runs which is fairly low. Jackson had one good month last season, and posted an ERA over 5 in every over month of the season. Jackson posted a 1.46 WHIP last season and gave up a .366 wOBA to LH hitters. The Pirates offense has been very quiet to start the season, but should be able to get things rolling today against Jackson. Rating = 4
- Charlie Morton – Morton is coming off of a terrific season. Last year, he posted a 3.26 ERA over 20 starts and his K-rate of 6.5/9 IP was actually much higher than in previous years. Morton faced this Cubs team 3 times last season and posted a 3.50 ERA while holding them to a .222 batting average. Morton pitches well at home and should get some run support to put him in line for the win. There aren’t many pitchers that you can rely on tonight in cash games, but Morton is one of them. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Chicago
- Anthony Rizzo – Morton’s numbers are solid across the board with the exception of LH batters. Morton gave up a .382 wOBA last season to LH bats. Rizzo is coming off of a 23 HR season, 16 oh which came against RH pitchers. Rizzo makes a nice tournament play tonight that should be a contrarian pick.
Pittsburgh
- Andrew McCutchen – Cutch has a terrific matchup against Jackson. Not only did Cutch bat .337 at home last season, but he has great numbers against Jackson in his career. He’s faced Jackson 28 times (which is a decent sample size) and has 8 hits off of him including 2 HR’s and 2 doubles. Cutch gives you a great combination of speed and power.
- Pedro Alvarez – I haven’t heard his name mentioned often today, but he makes a terrific play against Jackson who gave up a .366 wOBA to LH bats last season. Alvarez hit 36 HR’s last season and 33 of them were against RH pitchers. Pedro has great power and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a hold of one tonight.
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
