MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 30th Page Two
Pittsburgh at San Francisco
| Pittsburgh | San Francisco | ||||||||
| Charlie Morton | Vegas Moneyline | Tim Lincecum | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SFG (-115) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.267 | 0.691 | 0.335 | 18.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.661 | 0.304 | 20.9% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.579 | 0.276 | 18.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.249 | 0.716 | 0.321 | 24.0% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP  | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Charlie Morton – Morton makes an interesting play today. While he doesn’t have the best road splits, he’ll be pitching in a similar environment to PNC Park. His walks are a bit of a concern (3 per 9 innings), but he has a K/9 of 7.2 and he’s producing a 52% ground ball rate. He should be able to utilize his sinker today against the Giants. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $14050 DD, $6700 DK, $77400 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Tim Lincecum – Lincecum has been terrific in the month of July. He’s boasting a 2.70 ERA while striking out 31 batters over 33 innings of work. Lincecum has always pitched well at home, but will have his hands full with a Pirates’ offense that has been very good over the last few weeks. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7800 FD, $14800 DD, $8300 DK, $84200 FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Neil Walker – Walker has been locked in this month. He is batting .310 with a .397 wOBA. He has a .370 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and is the one Pirates’ bat that I’m heavily targeting in the morning slate.
Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen
San Francisco
Pablo Sandoval – Pablo has a .362 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and the majority of his power has come from the left side of the plate. Morton has been good vs. lefties this season, but has historically struggled against them.
Additional Plays: Buster Posey
Seattle at Cleveland
| Seattle | Cleveland | ||||||||
| Felix Hernandez | Vegas Moneyline | Corey Kluber | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CLE (-110) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.602 | 0.270 | 25.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.274 | 0.756 | 0.336 | 23.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.214 | 0.562 | 0.252 | 29.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.622 | 0.281 | 25.4% |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Felix Hernandez – This should be one of the better pitcher duels that we’ve seen in a while. King Felx vs. Kluber. Hernandez owns a 1.99 ERA (2.38 xFIP) with a K/9 of 9.8. He is walking a career low 1.6 batters per 9 innings which has allowed him to continuously pitch deep into games. Even though the Indians have been solid against RH pitching, I’m favoring great pitching over good hitting in this one. Rating = 8
Salaries: $11300 FD, $21900 DD, $12800 DK, $143400 FF, $NA SS, $21900 FTD
- Corey Kluber – Kluber gets the nod over Hernandez tonight for two reasons. One, he is quite a bit cheaper than Hernandez. And two, he has a better matchup as the Mariners are ranked 21st in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Kluber has been terrific at home this season with a 3.01 ERA and 80 K’s over 63 innings of work. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $9800 FD, $19200 DD, $9400 DK, $131800 FF, $ SS, $19200 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Seattle / Cleveland
With two of the best pitchers in the American League squaring off, I’ll be avoiding both offenses in this one.
LA Angels at Baltimore
| LA Angels | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Garrett Richards | Vegas Moneyline | Kevin Gausman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | LAA (-125) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.640 | 0.292 | 20.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.763 | 0.338 | 21.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.564 | 0.264 | 20.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.287 | 0.723 | 0.323 | 21.6% |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Garrett Richards – Richards is finally living up to the lofty expectations that were put on him. In 2014, he has a 2.62 ERA (3.20 xFIP) with a K/9 of 9.1. He’s pitched extremely well on the road this season as he has a 1.83 ERA while holding opponents to an incredibly low .156 batting average. Believe it or not, Camden Yards has actually yielded the 2nd fewest runs of any ballpark in baseball this season. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8400 FD, $18350 DD, $9700 DK, $134400 FF, $NA SS, $18950 FTD
- Kevin Gausman – Gausman has nice K-potential, but is a risky fantasy option tonight against the Angels. Gausman is averaging over 3 walks per 9 innings and his xFIP of 4.26 suggests some regression. The Angels are ranked 8th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and I have no interest in a pitcher that is facing the likes of Calhoun, Trout, Pujols, and Hamilton. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5900 FD, $12350 DD, $6400 DK, $66100 FF, $ SS, $12350 FTD
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
Kole Calhoun – Trout is the obvious play here, but you are going to have to pay up to get him in your lineup. Calhoun is a much cheaper option and has a great matchup as well. Calhoun has a .379 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and Gausman has given up a .344 wOBA to LH hitters.
Additional Plays: Mike Trout, Erick Aybar, Josh Hamilton
Baltimore
Richards has held both LH and RH hitters under a .260 wOBA this season which is very impressive. I think the Orioles’ hitters are overpriced for this matchup.
Chicago White Sox at Detroit
| Chicago White Sox | Detroit | ||||||||
| Hector Noesi | Vegas Moneyline | Max Scherzer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | DET (-235) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.268 | 0.753 | 0.336 | 17.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.669 | 0.296 | 25.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.336 | 0.919 | 0.403 | 16.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.190 | 0.550 | 0.249 | 32.6% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Hector Noesi – Since the start of May, Noesi has been a serviceable starter, but he hasn’t been a pitcher that you need to avoid taking hitters against. He doesn’t strike out a ton of batters and he has a K/BB ratio close to 2 which isn’t great. He’s an easy avoid tonight against the Tigers. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6500 FD, $9550 DD, $6200 DK, $57100 FF, $NA SS, $9550 FTD
- Max Scherzer – After a rocky month of June, Scherzer has really turned things around this month. He has posted a 2.28 ERA with 29 K’s over 27 innings of work in the month of July. He’s one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball and makes a great target tonight against the White Sox who strike out at a 22% clip against RH pitching this season. Rating = 9
Salaries: $10800 FD, $20450 DD, $11900 DK, $138600 FF, $ SS, $20450 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Scherzer has been locked in the entire month. Now is not the time to target hitters against him.
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera – Miggy is the top 1B play on the board tonight. He has crushed RH pitching all season long and gets to face Noesi who has had some serious reverse splits this season. It also doesn’t hurt that Miggy is 4/8 with 2 jacks off of Noesi in his career.
Additional Plays: Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez
Toronto at Boston
| Toronto | Boston | ||||||||
| Mark Buehrle | Vegas Moneyline | Jon Lester | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | TOR (-128) | LEFT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.709 | 0.324 | 13.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.662 | 0.294 | 26.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.277 | 0.735 | 0.325 | 15.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.670 | 0.302 | 20.4% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs L | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Mark Buehrle – Buehrle was a huge underdog until Lester was scratched from his start. Now he is a slight favorite. He has a 3.19 ERA on the season, but his 4.29 xFIP is very pedestrian and suggests some major regression. The Red Sox are an average offense against LH pitching this season, but there are better options than Buehrle tonight. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6900 FD, $12500 DD, $5800 DK, $58100 FF, $NA SS, $12500 FTD
- Brandon Workman – Jon Lester was scratched from today’s start so we could very well see him get dealt today. Instead, Workman will be on the mound for the Red Sox. Workman has a 4.13 ERA (similar xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.0. He draws an extremely tough matchup against the Blue Jays who lead all of baseball in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 4
Salaries: $9900 FD, $19850 DD, $10800 DK, $138700 FF, $ SS, $20500 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Jose Reyes – The Blue Jays are one of my favorite offenses to target tonight now that Workman will be on the mound for the Red Sox. He’s been hittable this season and as mentioned above, the Blue Jays are very good against RH pitching.
Additional Plays: Jose Bautista, Melky Cabrera, Dioner Navarro
Boston
David Oritz – This isn’t your typical lefty/lefty matchup that you need to avoid. Ortiz has actually hit lefties better than he has righties this season. He has a .387 wOBA vs. southpaws and has a nice track record against Buehrle: 25/79 with 13 XBH’s.
Additional Plays: Mike Napoli, Dustin Pedroia