MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 9th Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-09 18:06:12

Houston at Texas

Houston					Texas
Dallas Keuchel		Vegas Moneyline			Yu Darvish		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		TEX (-200)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.253	0.665	0.302	28.2%	SP vs. Left	0.224	0.659	0.299	28.8%
SP vs. Right	0.278	0.752	0.335	16.0%	SP vs. Right	0.175	0.524	0.243	36.7%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Dallas Keuchel – Keuchel was on a terrific run in the month of June, but has now given up 13 earned runs over his last 3 starts. Keuchel is still a high strikeout pitcher with a ton of upside, but this Rangers offense hits LH pitching very well. They are ranked 6th in the majors in wOBA against LH pitching. Factoring in the ballpark and the Darvish effect, Keuchel is a contrarian GPP play at best. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7600 FD, $12811 DS, $15000 DD, $6800 DK, $82900 FF, $23100 SS, $15600 FTD

• Yu Darvish – Darvish should be targeted in all leagues tonight. You are going to have to pay up for him, but he is the best strikeout pitcher in baseball and he’s facing the Astros who strike out at a higher rate against RH pitching than any other team in the majors. Darvish and his 1.83 ERA at home should be in for a monster fantasy outing tonight. Rating = 10

Salaries: $11400 FD, $25638 DS, $20950 DD, $12400 DK, $120300 FF, $30400 SS, $19100 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Unless you are playing on a site that rewards hitters for striking out, I highly suggest avoiding the Astros’ bats against Darvish.

Texas

Alex Rios – I think the big name of Dallas Keuchel may scare some people off of the Rangers’ hitters tonight, but he’s struggled in his last 3 starts and as mentioned above, this Rangers team hits LH pitching well. Rios owns a .446 wOBA against southpaws this season and is extremely cheap on both FD and DS.

Additional Plays: Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Robinson Chorinos

Philadelphia at Milwaukee

Philadelphia					Milwaukee
Roberto Hernandez		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Lohse		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIL (-200)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.285	0.847	0.382	14.6%	SP vs. Left	0.249	0.688	0.307	16.3%
SP vs. Right	0.265	0.704	0.327	20.0%	SP vs. Right	0.248	0.642	0.286	16.1%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Roberto Hernandez – Hernandez is not on my fantasy radar tonight. He has historically struggled vs. LH hitters, but has added RH hitters into the mix this season. He has a 4.48 ERA on the season with a 1.52 WHIP. Plus, he’s facing a very powerful Brewers’ offense in the HR-friendly Miller Park. Rating = 2

Salaries: $5100 FD, $8040 DS, $9500 DD, $5900 DK, $44500 FF, $13000 SS, $9500 FTD

• Kyle Lohse – Lohse is one of my favorite cash game targets tonight. He doesn’t have the strikeout potential that you like to see for a GPP play, but he has a nice matchup against the Phillies who are ranked 29th in wOBA against RH pitching. Furthermore, Lohse has a 2.10 ERA at home this season with a 0.88 WHIP. As long as he pitches a decent game, he should be in line for the win tonight. Rating = 8

Salaries: $7100 FD, $15174 DS, $15250 DD, $8400 DK, $100300 FF, $21800 SS, $15250 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Ryan Howard – Howard is only in play thanks to his BvP numbers. I will likely be avoiding him in cash games, but may have exposure to him in GPP’s as he is 11/25 with 4 XBH’s off of Lohse in his career. It doesn’t hurt that Miller Park is a very HR-friendly ballpark either.

Additional Plays: None

Milwaukee

Carlos Gomez – The Brewers are my top stack tonight and I’ll be sprinkling them throughout my cash game lineups as well. Gomez has a .395 wOBA against RH pitching this season and is a nice source of speed (15 SB’s) and power (13 HR’s).

Additional Plays: Scooter Gennett, Aramis Ramirez, Jonathan Lucroy

Pittsburgh at St. Louis

Pittsburgh					St. Louis
Brandon Cumpton		Vegas Moneyline			Lance Lynn		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		STL (-135)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.310	0.759	0.345	17.7%	SP vs. Left	0.254	0.733	0.333	18.1%
SP vs. Right	0.252	0.572	0.267	13.5%	SP vs. Right	0.246	0.631	0.289	25.9%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Brandon Cumpton – Cumpton has been a decent fantasy option over his last 4 starts, but has really struggled on the road this season with an ERA over 4.00. He doesn’t have a high enough K-rate (averaging 5.5 per 9 innings) to make up for the runs that he’s likely going to give up tonight against the Cardinals. He’s cheap, but has very limited upside. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5500 FD, $10555 DS, $10900 DD, $5700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $10900 FTD

• Lance Lynn – Lynn has pitched 3 shutouts in his last 5 games. He’s been terrific at Busch Stadium this season with a 2.84 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a K/9 of 6.3. I don’t mind the matchup against the Pirates whose best hitters all hit from the right side of the plate. Lynn has held RH hitters to a .289 wOBA over the last 2 seasons. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7700 FD, $16003 DS, $15350 DD, $8900 DK, $88200 FF, $24000 SS, $15350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Neil Walker – As mentioned above, Lynn is very good at keeping RH hitters in check. If you are targeting any hitters on the Pirates, target the LHB’s. Walker is a nice salary cap relief option at 2B that should be batting clean-up again tonight.

Additional Plays: Pedro Alvarez

St. Louis

Matt Adams – Adams seems to be the only Cardinals’ hitter that has been producing this season. He’s batting .369 against RH pitching with a wOBA of .404. He’s under-priced across the industry for the level of production that he provides.

Additional Plays: Matt Carpenter

Minnesota at Seattle

Minnesota					Seattle
Kyle Gibson		Vegas Moneyline			Roenis Elias		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SEA (-150)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.296	0.755	0.339	9.1%	SP vs. Left	0.206	0.686	0.302	24.3%
SP vs. Right	0.230	0.638	0.290	17.9%	SP vs. Right	0.237	0.671	0.310	20.5%
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs L		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kyle Gibson – Gibson has struggled against LH hitters and he has struggled on the road. Two things that do not bode well for his matchup tonight against the Mariners in Safeco. He’s shown his ability to post huge fantasy outings, but I have a hard time seeing that happening tonight on the road. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8489 DS, $10650 DD, $5400 DK, $57600 FF, $15700 SS, $10650 FTD

• Roenis Elias – Elias is one of my favorite upside plays tonight at pitcher. He’s averaging 7.7 strikeouts per 9 innings and is facing a Twins’ offense that has a 21.8% strikeout rate against LH pitching. The Twins’ offense is zapped of power right now and Elias should be able to mow through this lineup. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $6300 FD, $13989 DS, $13300 DD, $8100 DK, $87400 FF, $21100 SS, $13300 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Despite an ERA over 4.00, Elias has held LH and RH hitters under a .315 wOBA since the start of last season. I like the Elias side of this matchup and will be avoiding the Twins’ hitters.

Seattle

Kyle Seager – I was tempted to put Cano here, but Seager has had better power numbers this season. He’s hit all 13 of his HR’s against RH pitching and draws a favorable matchup against Gibson who has given up a .339 wOBA to LH hitters since the start of 2013.

Additional Plays: Robinson Cano, Logan Morrison

Oakland at San Francisco

Oakland					San Francisco
Jason Hammel		Vegas Moneyline			Matt Cain		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		OAK (-105)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.279	0.806	0.357	15.7%	SP vs. Left	0.208	0.631	0.288	21.1%
SP vs. Right	0.241	0.639	0.290	22.1%	SP vs. Right	0.248	0.730	0.324	19.4%
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jason Hammel – Hammel has been terrific in the first half of the season, but that’s a trend that we’ve seen with him in the past. He seems to trail off after the All-Star Break. The good news is that he gets one more start before the break. Tonight he faces a Giants offense that has been pretty average against RH pitching and he is facing them in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. I’m not in love with his price though so I’ll likely be paying up for Darvish or I’ll take one of the cheaper pitchers mentioned earlier. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7400 FD, $19312 DS, $15350 DD, $9000 DK, $117600 FF, $25500 SS, $15350 FTD

• Matt Cain – Cain is having another pedestrian season going by the standards that he’s set in the past. He’s sporting a 4.26 ERA with a K/9 of 7.1. Even though this game features a low run total, I’m not a big fan of targeting pitchers against the A’s. Not only are they ranked 5th in wOBA against RH pitching, but they draw the most walks in baseball and Cain has walked 12 batters over his last 5 starts. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $13609 DS, $13650 DD, $7200 DK, $66900 FF, $20400 SS, $13650 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Coco Crisp – Crisp is a decent option in the OF tonight, although you could easily avoid all hitters in this game. Crisp has a .376 wOBA against RH pitching and has nice SB potential against Cain.

Additional Plays: Stephen Vogt

San Francisco

With the way Hammel is pitching, I’ll be avoiding the Giants’ bats tonight.