MLB Picks For Today: Red Sox Massive Betting Favorites Against Yankees
The Red Sox spent the last three days reinserting themselves in the race for the American League East. Defeating the Yankees in the first three games — by a wide margin — the Sox place a cloud doubt on the Yankees’ runaway division victory and battery of starting pitchers. With the trade deadline approaching, the Red Sox look to complete the sweep tonight on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball in front of a home crowd. Here is a sports betting breakdown of tonight’s prime time affair.
The Sox won yesterday afternoon in decisive fashion — beating the Yankees 9-5 behind home runs from J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi. Eduardo Rodriguez worked 5 and 2/3 innings of three-run ball to earn the victory. CC Sabathia gave up five earned runs in the loss.
Today, the Yankees send Domingo German to the bump to hopefully right the ship for the visiting Bombers. The Red Sox send ace, Chris Sale, to the hill aiming to close out a sweep and move to six games behind the Yankees in the AL East.
MLB Picks for Today — Red Sox (-198) vs. Yankees (+170), Over/Under 10.5 Runs
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Stat of the Night
The Yankees and Brian Cashman may be getting more aggressive on the phone lines after a couple of weeks of terrible efforts from their starting pitching staff. Over the last 14 days, Yankees starters yielded 64 earned runs over the span of 62 innings. That is by far a league-worst mark and is 10 runs more than the Rockies yielded during the same time frame. The Rockies, however, gave up their 54 runs in 69 and 2/3 innings and pitch a portion of their games in Coors Field.
The Yankees will likely need to remedy this issue prior to the trade deadline by perhaps, adding a starting arm to the mix.
Prop Shop – Strikeout Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook already posted strikeout props by the time of this writing. The featured arm in Sunday’s contest is certainly Chris Sale. The line on Sale’s strikeouts is currently set at 8.5 with -130 on the over and +105 on the under. The RotoGrinders projected lineup for the Yankees owns a 23.1 K%. Chris Sale boasts a massive 35.5% K-rate that checks in for second in the MLB behind Gerrit Cole. In his two starts versus the Yankees this season, Sale struck out six and ten batters.
On the other side, Domingo German is tabbed with a 4.5-strikeout line with -124 on the over and +100 on the under. German compiled a 25.5 K% thus far in 2019 and struck out eight Red Sox in his only start against Boston this season.
Pitching Primer
Speaking of Domingo German, the 26-year-old hurler has pitched serviceably this season for the Yankees. His 4.03 ERA and his 4.01 xFIP are indicative that what you see with German is what you get. The aforementioned 25.5 K% is solid, especially when coupled with a respectable 6.2 BB%. The main concern for Domingo is hard-contact and fly balls. His 37.2 FB% and 38.7 Hard% reared its head in his previous start against the Twins when German got shellacked for eight earned runs on nine hits and three home runs. The Red Sox lineup is filled with patient powerful hitters from top to bottom. Even if he is pitching on a Sunday, Domingo could be in for a long night.
On the other side tonight we find the curious case of Chris Sale. Sale’s 4.00 ERA is ballooned by a .312 BABIP while his .292 xFIP indicates he could be in for some immense positive regression. All the while, Sale continues to strike out hitters at a massive rate (35.5%) but seems to be giving up more hard contact this season than usual. Coming off of two very good starts, Sale previously pitched three straight duds. The roller coaster ride is interesting and Sale’s inconsistencies certainly leave room for hope for a potent underdog offense.
The MLB Pick — Yankees +170 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds).
As with most efficient lines created by bookmakers, there exists a solid argument for either side of this game. One can certainly fathom a game where Chris Sale goes vintage and dominates the Yankees at home. Another can certainly envision the Yankees right-handed sluggers peppering the Green Monster repeatedly and Sale having another rough night.
Similar to last night’s game between the Brewers and the Cubs, the picks lies within the confines of the bullpens for both teams. The Yankees possess a decided advantage in the relievers category — pitching to a 4.09 xFIP and holding opposing hitters to a .241 batting average. Despite the recent drubbings, the Yankees quality relievers have not seen much action at all in the series and should be ready if called upon to protect any lead. Over the past 30 days, the Sox pen has struggled to the tune of a 4.76 xFIP — hampered by a less than stellar 11.4 BB%.
The line is moving towards the Red Sox as you read this column. The previous three games will certainly weigh on the minds of bettors throughout the course of the day — potentially tilting the line further in the Yankees favor. The Sox opened at -190 and already moved to -198 at the time of this writing. The price on a Yankees upset is pretty good and might improve. For the sake of this article, I will lock in the current +170 price. The Pick — Yankees +170 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Check back throughout the week as we provide more MLB picks.
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