MLB Betting Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, April 6th
With opening weekend of the 2021 MLB season in the books, baseball bettors have some added intel to go by when picking MLB moneylines and spreads. Some teams have exploded out of the gate offensively, others have dazzled on the mound, and a few clubs look like early forces at every level of the game.
At RotoGrinders, we want you to be a force on the sportsbooks. Yours truly will be providing baseball bets of the day at least twice a week throughout the season, and even including my favorite MLB parlays.
To hold myself accountable, I’ll be keeping track of how many bets of the day I get correct. On Opening Day, I went a lukewarm 1-1 (with my favorite pick of the day getting postponed due to COVID-19). On Friday, I started to heat up and went 2-0. That brings my record on the season to 3-1. Let’s keep the wins coming, and keep the cash coming in!
MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, April 6
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Pitching Matchup: J.A. Happ vs. Casey Mize
MLB Pick: Twins -150 ML (PointsBet)
As Tigers manager AJ Hinch noted on Sunday, Mize will be the last player on Detroit’s active roster to see the field season. Perhaps that’s less of a coincidence, and more of an indication that Hinch doesn’t think the 23-year-old is ready. The No. 1 overall pick in 2018, Mize had an 0-3 record, 6.99 ERA, and 1.482 WHIP in seven starts last season (28.1 IP). He looked even rougher in Spring Training. In six Grapefruit League games, he went 1-3 with a 7.23 ERA and 1.768 WHIP. He does have good swing-and-miss stuff when he’s on—he punched out 15 batters in his final 8.2 spring innings—but his command seems far too inconsistent to trust him early on.
Mize will be up against a seasoned veteran in J.A. Happ, who will also be making his 2021 regular-season debut Tuesday afternoon. Happ enjoyed a bounce-back year in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, putting up a 2-2 record with the Yankees. He had a 3.47 ERA and 1.054 WHIP, both dramatic improvements from his age-36 season two years ago. The 15-year journeyman got knocked around for nine runs in 8.2 Spring Training innings, after a positive COVID test delayed his arrival (he was asymptomatic).
I like the crafty veteran Happ over the young flamethrower Mize, and I very much like the Twins lineup over the Tigers. I wouldn’t touch the spread with a 10-foot pole, but I’m all about the moneyline in this one.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Pitching Matchup: Gerrit Cole vs. Dean Kremer
MLB Pick: Yankees -2.5 (-110) (BetMGM)
The Yankees lost their season-opening series to the Toronto Blue Jays three-games-to-two, and they already look like they are taking their pent-up aggressions out on the hapless Orioles. The Bronx Bombers eviscerated Baltimore 7-0 Monday, a mauling that included a Giancarlo Stanton grand slam.
There’s no rest for the weary in this series, as New York ace Gerrit Cole will get the start in Game 2 against unproven rookie Dean Kremer. Betting a -2.5-run spread may seem like a gutty move, but the Yankees winning this game convincingly seems like the lock of the early season. Don’t overthink it—oddsmakers made the moneyline -300 and the spread -2.5 because they don’t want you taking the low-hanging fruit. Risk it for the biscuit!
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
Pitching Matchup: Wade Miley vs. Trevor Cahill
MLB Pick: Reds -1.5 (+125) (BetMGM)
It will be the battle of two thirty-somethings in Cincy Tuesday, and I expect Miley and the home squad to prevail. The Reds have been red-hot, scoring a whopping 32 runs in their first four games. Slugging spark plug Nick Castellanos is appealing his ludicrous two-game suspension for getting excited and flexing after a big run, so he’ll be out there again Tuesday with his league-leading two homers, six runs, and 1.364 OPS.
Cincinnati’s momentum seems untouchable right now, so much so that I actually feel bad for the pitiful Pirates going into this series—especially after Pittsburgh had to place third base rookie sensation Ke’Bryan Hayes on IL with a wrist injury.
While Cahill had a fine 25-inning campaign last season, he has battled injuries and inconsistency for many years (and for eight different teams). Miley, who has played for one less ballclub but has lived for one year longer, has always loved early-spring action. In 37 career regular-season games in the months of March or April, Miley has a 3.90 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, and .236 batting average against (the latter two are better marks than he has maintained in any other month). Cahill’s stats in March/April: 4.60 ERA, 1.376 WHIP, .249 BAA. I’m very confident in the Reds today. Fire up your Cincy bets, and toss a #FreeCastellanos hashtag onto your Twitter feed.
PointsBet Spread Parlay of the Day:
Washington Nationals -1.5 (+155) vs. Atlanta Braves (Max Scherzer vs. Drew Smyly) – At last, the Nationals get to begin their season, and they will be raring to go. Smyly draws the tough-luck start against three-time Cy Young winner Scherzer. Smyly has looked good, but he won’t be good enough to contain the Nats today.
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-160) vs. Houston Astros (Griffin Canning vs. Zack Greinke) – I love Greinke this year—and I wouldn’t be surprised if the 4-0 Astros won this game—but I can’t get away from the Halos +1.5 here. LA showed in its season-opening series against the ChiSox that it can win close games—all three of the Angels’ victories were by three runs or less.
San Diego Padres -1.5 (-110) vs. San Francisco Giants (Yu Darvish vs. Aaron Sanchez) – Sanchez has not pitched a regular-season game since 2019, and now he gets the hard-hitting Padres and the 2020 NL Cy Young runner-up? Goodnight, gentle Giants.
Total Parlay Odds: +693
Bet: $100 | To Win: $693 | Payout: $793
BetMGM Moneyline Parlay of the Day:
Minnesota Twins (-135) at Detroit Tigers (J.A. Happ vs. Casey Mize) – see above. All-in on the better squad with the more experienced pitcher here.
New York Yankees (-300) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Gerrit Cole vs. Dean Kremer) – see above. It’s the lock of the day, and I can’t stay away. Cole wins his first game of the season in front of the home fans in convincing fashion.
Cincinnati Reds (-155) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Wade Miley vs. Trevor Cahill) – see above. Cincy is Red-hot, with an average of eight runs per game in its first four games. Bad news for an already bad Pirates team that just lost its most promising young hitter to the IL.
Total Parlay Odds: +281
Bet: $100 | To Win: $281 | Payout: $381
MLB Odds for Today
Image Credit: Imagn