MLB Pitching Primer: Thursday, May 17th
Everything in the sport of baseball comes down to the hitter-versus-pitcher matchup – which makes pitching the most important element of MLB DFS play. Without an understanding of the best pitching plays on the day, your DFS efforts will be sunk! Each day, the Pitching Primer will provide you with some of the top pitching plays on the day – taking a close look at the “why” behind these picks, and helping you to identify pitchers others might overlook.
Thursday, May 17th
Main Slate
I don’t normally put too much personal stuff in here, but I’m making an exception today – feel free to skip down to the Arms to Trust section if you’re short on time.
Today is a difficult anniversary for me – one year ago today, at the start of a Wednesday afternoon slate where I distinctly remember I was way more overweight Bradley Zimmer than I intended, my wife came home from a doctor’s appointment. Her doctor had told her that the pain she felt in her breast wasn’t normal and had set up an emergency imaging appointment for later that day. My wife was nervous about the appointment, so being the person that I am, I looked for some statistical evidence to comfort her. It was two days before her 35th birthday, so according to the stats I could find online, the chances she would develop breast cancer – over the next five years – were about 250-1. With no family history of breast cancer, the odds were even lower.
I went to the waiting room of the next appointment with my wife, and she went back into the patients-only area. I late swapped inactive players from a Giants lineup which had annoyingly come in after lock for the afternoon slate, as other patients went back for testing and then emerged like clockwork about 45 minutes later. Bradley Zimmer hit a home run. Soon it was 5 PM, and the receptionist asked why I was still waiting there. I told her that my wife was still in the patients-only area, and the receptionist replied that there must be some mistake, because all of the patients had gone home. She checked in the back, came back to the waiting room, and without making eye contact informed me that she had made a mistake – my wife was indeed still in the back area getting tested, and was very upset. They were going to make an “exception” and allow me into the back area. I concluded that my wife was having such an irrational meltdown before the tests, that the receptionist couldn’t even make eye contact with me.
A few minutes later, I found out the obvious truth, that my wife had breast cancer. A month later after surgery, the news got worse, as we found out that the cancer was at best case Stage 3. It would require chemotherapy for the rest of the year, radiation treatment after that, medication for the next decade, and after all of that, an uncertain prognosis.
It’s a year later – my wife has been through it all, and is feeling better every day. Of all things, she’s proud that she got back up to five miles on her run yesterday, and she is busy re-growing hair and chasing after our two-year old daughter. When my daughter is old enough to understand what has happened, her Mom will become her hero, as she is mine. We know that the long-term prognosis is still uncertain, but we live each day thankful just to have that day, as healthy and happy as we can be.
I write all of this in the Pitching Primer to bring up a few points. One, statistics aren’t everything. Life is full of uncertainty. We can take as good a look as possible at the past and try to predict future outcomes, but sometimes the best statistics aren’t going to indicate what is about to happen. It doesn’t matter if Max Scherzer has a 13.96 K/9 – that may indicate that he has the highest strikeout potential on a given slate, but on that night he may strike out 21 batters, or he may get scratched right before game time. We don’t care what the averages say across all cases, we care about what the actual results will be in the particular case that we care about at the moment.
Second, and there is no great DFS analogy for this, but go to the doctor and get things checked if they are bothering you. There are some legitimate questions in cancer treatment over whether early regular scanning is more beneficial, but it’s not debatable in my wife’s case – delaying getting things checked would have been catastrophic. If you or anyone you care about thinks something could be wrong, take things seriously and get to the doctor.
Finally, life is short. Put your phone down and be present with the people that you love. Winning six figures in a DFS tournament would be great – but it won’t be as important to you as the company of the people that matter to you. I’ve been in both places in a short amount of time – winning my biggest ever DFS prize a few weeks before the life of someone I love was threatened – and there is no question which incident impacted my life more and stuck with me more strongly to this day.
Now that I’ve said all of that – man, what an awful night for pitching.
Arms To Trust
Tyler Skaggs vs Tampa Bay Rays
Skaggs isn’t normally the quality of pitcher that gets listed in this category, but he is probably the safest play on the board today. He has the fourth-highest K/9 on the slate with a decent 9.41 mark, the second-lowest ERA (3.07) and SIERA (3.54), and over his last three starts he’s allowed only six earned runs in 16.2 innings with 22 strikeouts. He’s not the highest favorite on the board, but he is a strong -150 favorite taking on the Rays at home in Anaheim, and Tampa Bay has the lowest projected run total on the board. The Rays rank 14th in K% against left-handers this season and are 17th overall in runs scored per game, so the potential is there for a decent strikeout total with limited runs allowed. Skaggs is the highest-priced pitcher on the board on FanDuel at $9,000 and is second on DraftKings ($10,400) and FantasyDraft ($20,700), but most pitchers are clustered together pretty closely in pricing today. Skaggs is a top option in cash games for me today, and although this seems like a great night to scatter your pitching options if you are doing multiple tournaments entries, I’ll own a decent share of him in tournaments as well.
Marco Gonzales vs Detroit Tigers
I realize I am stretching the limits of this category by listing Marco Gonzales as a trustworthy arm, but it is worth noting that he has a number of things working in his favor tonight. He is the strongest favorite on the board as a -180 favorite, and the Tigers have the second-lowest implied run total on the slate. Gonzales has pitched better than you may have realized this season, with the lowest SIERA on the slate at 3.47, and over his last five starts he has 30 strikeouts over 28.2 innings with a 4.08 ERA. Tonight he is taking on a Tigers team that is listed as having the lowest K% in the league against left-handed pitching and ranks fifth in wOBA versus lefties, numbers that are sure to scare people off today, but this lineup has been depleted by injuries and will be without Miguel Cabrera, Leonys Martin, and Jeimer Candelario tonight. Gonzales is priced as the 13th-most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, 15th on DraftKings, and 14th on FantasyDraft, which is a bargain rate for the strongest favorite on the board.
Upside Arms
David Price vs Baltimore Orioles
There is no question that Price has some upside tonight, but that statement comes with a number of caveats. Price has shown that he is not the same pitcher that he has been in years past, with his ERA up to 4.89 on the season and his K/9 down to 8.08. His swinging strike rate was 11.9% in 2015, 11.9% in 2016, 11.7% in 2017, and is 8.8% this season. Price acknowledged feeling some numbness in his pitching hand a couple of weeks ago; it was diagnosed as carpal tunnel syndrome and after a few days extra rest he was able to come back and racked up six strikeouts in 5.1 innings with two earned runs allowed against Toronto last start. He is one of the stronger favorites on the board at -160, and the Orioles do rank 8th in K% this season, although that mark drops to 14th in K% against left-handed pitchers. Priced at $7,400 on FanDuel (11th), David is worth definite tournament consideration on that site; on DraftKings ($8,400, 3rd) and FantasyDraft ($16,400, 3rd) he is relatively more expensive and the upside starts to get outweighed by the combination of risk and salary.
Chris Archer at Los Angeles Angels
Archer has a strange combination of factors working tonight, as the pitcher with the highest swinging strike percentage on the slate and a nice-looking 3.88 SIERA that ranks fifth, but a 5.64 ERA, a K/9 that is down to 8.89 after putting up a 11.15 mark last season, and a 1.41 WHIP. Tonight he is taking on an Angles team that ranks 25th in K% against right-handed pitching and 7th in wOBA, and he is a solid underdog in the matchup against Tyler Skaggs. Having said all of that, he is in a nice pitcher’s park tonight and the Angels have a low implied run total around 4.0 runs, and Archer seems priced fairly on FanDuel ($8,600, 3rd) and more than fairly on DraftKings ($6,900, 12th) and FantasyDraft ($13,900, 11th). If you are playing multiple sites tonight, it seems like an ideal night to take whatever each site gives you with pitchers being priced all over the place, and for Archer I will own some tournament shares on the two-pitcher sites tonight.
Overlooked Difference-Makers
Jeff Samardzija vs Colorado Rockies
I have a nice streak going with Samardzija this season, where I notice that his numbers (6.94 ERA, 1.71 WHIP) and velocity (average 92.5 MPH on his fastball) are both down and think that something is seriously wrong, then I notice that Vegas has him favored, the opposing team has a sub-4.0 implied run total, and I end up with some tournaments shares. Then I watch him get shelled as soon as he takes the mound. With Samardzija priced as the cheapest pitcher on FanDuel tonight at $5,900, I will likely keep that streak going this evening, although it is worth noting he is more expensive on DraftKings ($7,000) and FantasyDraft ($13,700).
Chad Bettis at San Francisco Giants
This is not an official recommendation, but I wanted to call attention to the fact that Chad Bettis is taking the hill for the Rockies tonight in their game in San Francisco. Bettis led the Rockies in innings in 2016, only to be diagnosed with testicular cancer at age 27 over the offseason, underwent surgery and chemotherapy, and still made it back to pitch in the majors in August last year. He is by far a much better real-life pitcher than fantasy arm, with a 3.12 ERA this season but a 5.51 K/9, and he’s a slight underdog on the road tonight, although he is taking on a Giants team that ranks 22nd in runs scored per game and he is priced fairly across the sites. Tonight I’ll be taking at least one low-priced tournament share of Bettis, remembering that all of these players are real people that have a real story, thinking about the entertainment and inspiration that can come from sports, and hoping for the best.
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