MLB Player Props Today: Gausman, Giolito, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (September 20)
What kind of performances can we expect on Wednesday from Kevin Gausman, Lucas Giolito, and Nolan Arenado? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Wednesday, September 20, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Wednesday! There are 15 MLB games on tap for today’s slate, beginning with a matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves at 12:20 p.m. EST. Eight other contests have an afternoon start time as well, with the remaining six contests scheduled for first pitch at 6:40 p.m. EST or later.
Across the last two months, we are 94-58-5 (63.3%) in this article. Since May 1, we are 189-139-11 on non-Home Run props and 2-6 on Home Run recommendations. We are now 113-60-5 (66.9%) on pitcher prop recommendations for the season. There is plenty of opportunity once again on the player prop market today – below are three prop leans for September 20!
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MLB Player Props Today
- Kevin Gausman o17.5 Outs Recorded
- Lucas Giolito u6.5 Strikeouts
- Nolan Arenado Less Than 0.5 Strikeouts
Kevin Gausman o17.5 Outs Recorded (-145), BetMGM
Since September 1, the New York Yankees rank 29th in OPS and 26th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Even more alarming, the Yankees have posted these numbers against a motley of underwhelming opposing pitchers – Colin Selby, Luis Ortiz, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta, Colin Rea, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, and Cristian Javier all included in that stretch. Kevin Gausman has not been his elite self since the beginning of August, only covering this market number three times in eight starts. However, this is a great bounce-back opportunity for him in an extremely favorable matchup. Take the over.
Lucas Giolito u6.5 Strikeouts (-160), PointsBet
In his last two starts for the Cleveland Guardians, Lucas Giolito has struck out 21 batters across 14.0 innings of work. His 43.8% strikeout rate in that span is 18.9% higher than his strikeout rate across his first 28 starts in 2023. Though there is something to be said about his recent uptick in changeup usage, it is also worth noting that his last two starts have come against the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels – both of which rank 18th or worse in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in September. Facing a more contact-oriented Kansas City Royals offense today, this market number is likely too high.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Nolan Arenado Less Than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts, PrizePicks
Entering play on Wednesday, Adrian Houser has struck out only 17.9% of right-handed batters that he has faced in 2023. Nolan Arenado has struck out in only 17.3% of his plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season. Arenado ranks in the 75th percentile in whiff rate and the 84th percentile in strikeout percentage this year, with his main risk factor being a tendency to chase bad pitches out of the zone. Fortunately for Arenado, Houser ranks in only the 32nd percentile in chase rate this year. Arenado has a good chance to avoid a punchout in this one.
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MLB Props Results – Wager Type
HITTER PROPS
Dinger Tuesday: 4-11-1
Hitter: 121-111-6
Stolen Base: 1-2
PITCHER PROPS
Hits Allowed: 3-2
Outs Recorded: 35-22
Strikeout: 74-34-3
Walk: 1-0
Earned Runs Allowed: 0-0-1
MISCELLANEOUS PROPS
1st Inning: 0-4