MLB Player Props for Tuesday, 4/1: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Tuesday from Pavin Smith, Yordan Alvarez, and Brandon Lowe? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Tuesday, April 1st. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Happy Tuesday! For the first time this season, there was no day baseball on the slate, meaning that all 13 games on today’s slate have a scheduled first pitch of 6:40 p.m. ET or later. We are also back to the front end of a few rotations, which means we get to see some aces, like Sandy Alcantara, Logan Gilbert, and Chris Sale, on the bump tonight.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Since the beginning of the 2023 season, we are +51.02u on regular season MLB player props in this article. And below, you can find my 3 picks for Tuesday, April 1st!
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Best MLB Player Props for Tuesday, April 1st
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, April 1st:
- Pavin Smith Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Yordan Alvarez Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Brandon Lowe Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Pavin Smith OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+135, bet365)
Pavin Smith is likely one of the most talented players that very few people know about. Playing in a part-time role each of the last 3 seasons, he has hit 25 home runs and posted a 98 wRC+ across a span of 204 games. He has walked in 12.2% of his plate appearances (PA) in that stretch, which ranks 22nd out of 366 players who have logged 600+ PA since the beginning of 2021.
Even those aggregate numbers might be doing Smith a disservice. In 2024, he had his most productive season to date, posting a stellar 142 wRC+, with the majority of his trips to the plate coming against RHP. Among 549 players with at least 150 PA last season, Smith was 1 of only 28 hitters to post greater than a 10% walk rate while striking out in 20% of his PA — a list that includes names such as Kyle Tucker, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ketel Marte, Mookie Betts, and other MVP-caliber talent.
Will Warren is a young prospect with plenty of talent, but he’s still a very young player who will be making his first start of 2025 against a formidable Arizona lineup. The weather is colder than is ideal for betting overs on hitter props, but Smith should have his chances to do damage here, or get on base and let someone drive him home.
Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130, bet365)
Yordan Alvarez is off to a slow start at the plate in 2025, with only 1 hit in his first 16 plate appearances (PA). That being said, he’s still been on base 4 times due to his strong plate discipline and willingness to take first base when pitchers don’t want to give him anything to hit.
Logan Webb has had his troubles against LHB during his career. Alvarez presents one of the toughest matchups in baseball for Webb, who is extremely fastball-reliant across the platoon. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Alvarez break out of his mini slump this evening.
Brandon Lowe OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-118, BetMGM)
Brandon Lowe is one of the more underrated hitters in baseball, and tonight, he gets a favorable matchup against Thomas Harrington in what should be favorable hitting conditions in Tampa. Harrington is a quality prospect, but he lacks overpowering stuff, and more importantly, he’s not all that stretched out heading into his first regular season start of 2025.
This is particularly relevant, given how taxed Pittsburgh’s arm barn is behind Harrington. Lowe has finished 2024 with a 120 wRC+ against RHP and should have an opportunity to improve upon that number this summer, playing half of his games outside in the Florida heat. The math favors the over here.
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