MLB Playoffs: White Sox vs. Astros Odds, Picks and Prediction for Game 2
White Sox vs. Astros Odds
| White Sox Odds | +104 |
| Astros Odds | -122 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 8 |
| Time | 2:07 p.m. |
| TV | MLB Network |
On Friday afternoon, the Chicago White Sox and the Houston Astros will battle in the American League Division Series at Minute Maid Park. Entering play, Chicago has won six of their last eight games. Houston has won five of their last seven contests. In Game 2, the White Sox will send Lucas Giolito to the hill. He will be opposed by Framber Valdez. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Astros securing a commanding 2-0 series lead, pricing Houston as -122 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 2.
Chicago White Sox (+104)
In 31 starts this year for Chicago, Giolito posted a 3.53 ERA, 3.29 xERA, and a 3.79 FIP. He ranked in the 71st percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout percentage, and whiff-rate. Giolito was at his best when pitching on the road, delivering a 3.05 FIP and a 1.11 WHIP in 91.1 innings of work away from Guaranteed Rate Field. After a brief trip to the injured list at the beginning of September, Giolito returned to make four starts before the end of the regular season, during which he had a 2.21 ERA and a 3.12 FIP.
Chicago is a far better offense against left-handed pitching than they are against right-handed pitching. They also happen to be one of the best offenses in the league against sinkers—a pitch that Valdez uses over 50 percent of the time. The White Sox disappointed in Game 1, totaling only one run on seven hits, but a lineup featuring Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, Luis Robert, and Eloy Jimenez is unlikely to be held to one run in back to back games. Expect Chicago to have a much better showing at the plate on Friday.
The trade deadline acquisition of Craig Kimbrel immediately put this relief unit into the conversation for the best bullpen in Major League Baseball. Since the beginning of September this group ranked first in the league by a wide margin in bullpen FIP at 2.99. Yesterday, this group used Reynaldo Lopez, Garrett Crochet, and Jose Ruiz in relief. All of Chicago’s best high-leverage options are rested and available for Game 2.
Houston Astros (-122)
Valdez missed the beginning of the campaign due to injury, but was fantastic for the Astros once he made his way back to the big-leagues. Across 134.2 innings of work, he posted a 3.14 ERA, 3.78 xERA, and a 4.01 FIP. Still, he surrendered an abundance of hard-contact—ranking in the 11th percentile or worse in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. His 21.9 strikeout percentage ranked in only the 37th percentile and he also walked an alarmingly-high 10.1 percent of opposing batters. Valdez could be in for a rough day against a Chicago lineup that owned the sixth-best OPS, seventh-best ISO, and ninth-best walk-rate against southpaws in 2021.
Houston is well-equipped offensively against almost any opposing pitcher. They annihilate fastballs, but they are also a top-10 offense, per Brad Cunningham, against both changeups and sliders. Over 97 percent of the pitches that Giolito threw during the regular season were a fastball, changeup, or a slider. Jose Altuve, Michael Brantely, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa, and Kyle Tucker should be able to generate quite a few run-scoring opportunities for the second day in a row, at least until Chicago goes to their extremely talented bullpen.
If there are any concerns surrounding the Astros in October, they center on their ability to close-out games. Since September 1, Houston’s relief corps ranks only 20th in bullpen FIP. They have walked an alarmingly-high 12.4 percent of opposing hitters during this stretch, which is the second-worst mark in the league. Interestingly, Manager Dusty Baker opted to use two of his best relief options, Kendall Graveman and Ryan Pressly, in yesterday’s blowout victory. Neither pitcher had thrown since the weekend, so their availability for Game 2 is not in question. However, fatigue is always a concern for pitchers who see action on back-to-back days.
White Sox vs. Astros Picks
Since the beginning of the 2019 campaign, Minute Maid Park has produced the fifth-most offensive of any ballpark in Major League Baseball in day games. Typically in the postseason, when good offense and good pitching collide, the smart wager is on the pitching to prevail. However, in this contest, neither starting pitcher has a particularly favorable matchup. Both Giolito and Valdez could struggle in this one. The first five innings, over 3.5 runs cashed for bettors yesterday. Expect another hot start to the contest at the plate in Game 2. Take the over on the first half of this affair.
PICK: Over 3.5 runs, First 5 innings (-138)
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