MLB PrizePicks Predictions: Top Plays for Opening Day 2024
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great Fantasy Pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Opening Day
- Frankie Montas MORE Than 5.0 Strikeouts
- Miles Mikolas LESS Than 4.0 Strikeouts
- Shohei Ohtani MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases
- Will Benson MORE Than 0.5 Total Bases
- Josiah Gray MORE Than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Frankie Montas MORE Than 5.0 Strikeouts vs. Nationals
K projections are the go-to which will dominate many of my PrizePicks tickets. Ks are fairly simple to project, and there are always market inefficiencies in the PrizePicks projections relative to ours at RotoGrinders and those of THE BAT.
Montas is coming off shoulder surgery and a rough spring where he got tagged pretty hard, but he did strike out 16 hitters in 16.2 innings. The question for Montas isn’t whether he can get a K per inning (he can) but whether he can finish 5 innings to get there. Joey Gallo, Lane Thomas, and Jesse Winker all had K rates over 25% in 2023 and will likely be in the top five of the order, so maybe Montas doesn’t need 5 innings to get to 6 strikeouts.
We currently have him projected for 5.9 Ks. Nearly a full K above the PrizePicks projection is a strong pick to take.
Miles Mikolas LESS Than 4.0 Strikeouts at Dodgers
Taking less than a 4.0 K projection is risky, but the Dodgers should tag Mikolas for a ton of contact. Averaging only around two-thirds of a K per inning in 2023 (6.12 K/9), Mikolas is projected by us and THE BAT for less than 3.5 strikeouts on Opening Day, let alone 4.0. It would be shocking if Mikolas went 6 innings, which is the amount of innings he would need to get 4 strikeouts on average. The Dodgers aren’t average. This is a great lineup with too many skilled hitters.
Shohei Ohtani MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases vs. Cardinals
It’s Ohtani against one of the most extreme high-contact pitchers in MLB. Not only does Mikolas not strike anyone out, but he only had 1.74 BB/9 in 2023 for a — by far — league-leading contact rate of 85.2%. Factor in his 9.8% barrel rate allowed on that high frequency of contact against one of the best hitters in baseball, and we should feel comfortable being aggressive with Ohtani totaling two or more bases. Ohtani is coming off of a 2023 where he led all qualified MLB hitters with his 19.6% barrel rate.
We currently have Ohtani projected for 2.6 total bases — 73.3% above his PrizePicks projection of 1.5.
Will Benson MORE Than 0.5 Total Bases vs. Nationals
In Cincinnati, we wanna target hitting somewhere. Benson is a low-contact guy, striking out over 30% of the time and walking more than 10% in 2023. But Josiah Gray is coming off of a season where he surrendered a 9.4% barrel rate, and Benson hit for a rate of 10.3%. In a small ballpark, Benson is a threat for 4 bases every plate appearance against a low-strikeout pitcher who struggles to get ahead in counts.
Benson’s 1.5 total base projection here at RG is 200% above his 0.5 PrizePicks projection, making him one of the best plays on the board in any category.
Josiah Gray MORE Than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed at Reds
In Cincinnati, bad pitching should never have ER projections so low. Surprisingly, we only have Gray projected to allow 2 earned runs.
I don’t get it.
This is a guy with a 5.08 SIERA in 2023 and a high barrel rate in one of the best home run ballparks in MLB history. Our projection might curb my enthusiasm a bit, but we should definitely have some exposure to this play. Gray just gets in trouble too much, as reflected in his 4.53 BB/9 from 2023 and his career rate of pitches in the strike zone at under 39%.
This is simple. When guys struggle to throw strikes, they are forced to force strikes. This should lead to very hittable pitches being served up in a great ballpark for power. Yeah, I’m defying our projection here. If Gray goes the projected 5+ innings, there will be too much opportunity for the Reds to get 3 runs earned. If Gray can’t go 5 innings, it’s probably because he’s already given up 3 earned runs.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
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