MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Thursday, May 9th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks tool makes the process even simpler.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Thursday, May 9th
- Logan Gilbert MORE Than 34.5 Fantasy Points
- Cal Quantrill LESS Than 17.5 Outs
- Ronel Blanco MORE Than 2.5 Walks
- Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Logan Gilbert MORE Than 34.5 Fantasy Points
Gilbert is projected for 96 pitches. He’s got a 20.4% K-BB rate and has gone at least 6.1 IP in 5 consecutive starts — 8, 6.1, 6.2, 6.2, 7.2, 5.2, and 7 in his starts this season. The Twins are a fine lineup but nothing that should scare us, given the volume. Gilbert isn’t in the best spot for a win in a virtual pick’em, but he is in a fantastic spot for a quality start that has a ceiling into the 8th inning, putting that ceiling in the range of 6-8 Ks. We have Gilbert projected for 34.9 fantasy points, which doesn’t look like much edge, but there isn’t much edge on this slate. And the range of outcomes is pretty tight, so our MLB PrizePicks tool has this as one of eight plays with a 57%+ win rate.
Cal Quantrill LESS Than 17.5 Outs
Our MLB PrizePicks tool has the Quantrill LESS than 17.5 outs as the 2nd-best play on the board behind Pablo Lopez’ LESS than 42.5 fantasy points. I think Quantrill is the safer play. Quantrill’s been eating innings this season, with at least 6 IP in 4 of 7 starts, but this is in Coors Field against a Giants squad that should put good wood on him. If Quantrill has strikeout stuff, we’d stay away from this, but we’re picking against a guy (in Coors) with a 13.6% K rate on an 8.1% swinging-strike rate who has allowed an 8.3% barrel rate to go less than 6 innings. Hardly risky.
Ronel Blanco MORE Than 2.5 Walks
Only a few games being played today, so we should attack the low-command spot pretty hard on Blanco. He comes in with an 11.6% BB rate — 14.4% against lefties — and will face a Yankees projected lineup with a 10.6% BB rate. Blanco’s gone at least 90 pitches in all 6 of his starts — 94, 102, and 98 in his last 3 — so the leash is very long, giving us a lot of opportunities to compile walks.
Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
With all of the traffic that Blanco should allow on the basepaths, the heart of the Yankees order should get a lot of great pitches to hit from a guy who’s been really lucky on contact to start the season. Blanco’s 4.1% barrel rate this season is in spite of a 34.7% fly-ball rate, and his .181 BABIP makes him the definition of a regression candidate. Last season, Blanco allowed an 11.8% barrel rate with a .280 BABIP, despite the same 34.7% fly-ball rate. He’s added a great changeup that really helps, but no changeup is this great.
Rizzo and Stanton both have hard-hit rates over 50% against RHP — Stanton a 15.2% barrel rate, and Rizzo a 33.1% fly-ball rate with the Yankee Stadium short porch — that work highly in our favor. Could Blanco walk them too? Sure, but Blanco should get knocked around, and these two are the most likely beneficiaries of getting great pitches to smash. We have Stanton projected for 2 total bases and Rizzo for 1.6. Add in the DEMON boost, and these are the hitting plays I want to sprinkle around the most.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
All of that said, we wanna have low volume on a small slate, simply because there isn’t that much edge to spread around. We should like all of the Yankees for different reasons. Anthony Volpe, Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto for fantasy points at the top of the order with Rizzo/Stanton in the middle, especially. Pablo Lopez has some fine projections to attack because the Mariners just strike out so damn much, but the PrizePicks projections are pretty high on him. Keaton Winn just popped up with a DEMON boost on MORE than 15.5 outs; we have him projected for 15.3, so he’s fine too.
Image Credit: Getty Images