NBA Daily Grind Down: Friday 3/1

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-03-01 19:00:49

The RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down article is going to give you an in-depth analysis on every game each night (3 games minimum). This article will give you defense vs. position rankings and make notes on where you can exploit these matchups.

We are officially into March and what better way to kick it off than to have it be a Friday full of NBA games. Nights like tonight when there are a lot of games make research more important than ever. Luckily for you Grinders, we have done a lot of the research for you and have found the best matchups on the board tonight that are headlined by one Josh Smith.

NOTES:

1) Defense vs. Position rankings are how well a team defends against a certain position. The ranking is for the team that it is listed under, NOT the opponent.
2) Rankings are as follows: 30 is the worst defense against a position, 1 is the best.
3) Last 10 Game Data is collected at the start of each week. It will be updated each Sunday for the upcoming week.

Houston @ Orlando – 7:00 pm EST

• First up we have one of the worst defenses in the league. Houston struggles to defend every position on the floor so that leaves us with plenty of good on the Magic tonight. Starting at PG, E’Twaun Moore and Beno Udrih both are playing around 30 minutes per game and both make good value plays. Aaron Afflalo also is a strong play as he has really been playing well for the Magic. Outside of the guards, the Magic have been very inconsistent lately so take them with caution.
• The Magic have been terrible against Centers all season long and Omer Asik is coming off of a career high 22 rebound game against Milwaukee. He has an excellent matchup in this one as long as he is not overpriced on the site you play on. I also like Jeremy Lin going up against the combo of Moore and Udrih. Last but not least, don’t forget about young Donatas Motiejunas, he is coming off of a strong 26 fantasy point performance and is worth a look if he is still cheap.

New York @ Washington – 7:00 pm EST

• The Knicks have been struggling a little bit lately and you can see from their rankings that it’s probably because of their defense. Giving up 54 to Stephen Curry also might hurt your ranking. That being said, it’s hard to trust anyone on the Wizards. John Wall is really in a slump, Brad Beal seems to be overpriced, and Nene Hilario is dealing with a shoulder injury. Not a ton to love here.
• The Wizards rankings in the last ten games seem to be opposite of their season long rankings so it’s hard to judge which positions to use matchup wise. They have been average against PG’s all season and I expect Raymond Felton to have a solid game. Carmelo Anthony is another good option if his price is right.

Indiana @ Toronto – 7:00 pm EST

• Indiana has a great defense and even though CP3 and Griffin had good games against them last night, that just happens in the NBA sometimes. I would stay away from Rudy Gay tonight as he has an extremely tough matchup against Paul George and Danny Granger. With so many options tonight, it might be smart to stay away from the Raptors.
• Toronto has been very solid defensively lately and only have one ranking below 11th in their last 10 games. That is against PF’s and that ranking is 24th. While that may seem like a good matchup to exploit, David West is really expensive on most sites and Amir Johnson isn’t a bad defender at all. I would rather take my chances with Roy Hibbert as he will be well rested after his suspension.

Golden State @ Boston – 7:30 pm EST

• You have to love this matchup for Boston. Golden State ranks near the bottom of the league at defending every single position. The hard part is being able to determine which of those positions to take. My money is going to be spent on Paul Pierce, he has really stepped up his game since Rondo went down and Harrison Barnes will be no match for him. I expect a 20-7-7 line from him tonight. Avery Bradley and Kevin Garnett also get a bump in value.
• The Celtics have a pretty strong defense. It will be interesting to see how Stephen Curry will do tonight coming off of his 54 point performance. Avery Bradley is head over heels a better defender than Raymond Felton but good offense always beats good defense. That being said, Curry is probably too expensive to take tonight. I like David Lee value and could see him having a big night.

L.A.Clippers @ Cleveland – 7:30 pm EST

• The Clippers have a good defense and the Cavs have a bad offense, especially without Kyrie. If Kyrie is out again tonight, then I think there is value for both Shaun Livingston and Dion Waiters. But if Kyrie is in the lineup, it’s hard to trust any Cavs tonight.
• This could be a good spot for the Clippers players. They are playing the second half of a back to back so they will likely come out a little flat. This game will probably be closer than you would think which means you don’t have to worry about it turning into a blowout. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin both make great plays tonight and if DeAndre Jordan is out, Lamar Odom could be worth a look at as well.

Memphis @ Miami – 7:30 pm EST

• Both of these teams have some impressive defensive numbers. The over/under on this game is the second lowest of the day so don’t expect a ton of offense in this one. In my eyes, Lebron James is worth taking on sites like FD where they cap their salaries, but if you have to pay a ton for Lebron, I would take my chances elsewhere.
• On to the Grizzlies. Marc Gasol makes an interesting play tonight against a Miami team that isn’t particularly very good at rebounding the ball. Marc has scored 35+ fantasy points in each of his last 3 games and could be a major factor in this one. I still like other options better than Marc, but he is not a bad play.

Detroit @ New Orleans – 8:00 pm EST

• I always like it when two bad teams face each other. For whatever reason, the games are usually pretty close and there are always great fantasy options in these types of games. Detroit struggles against every position, but the two matchups that I like tonight are for Greivis Vasquez and Ryan Anderson (if Davis is still out). Greivis puts up 30 fantasy points like it’s nothing and if Anderson gets the start, he will have a big advantage over Maxiell.
• On the other side of the ball, there are also matchups to like for the Pistons. Greg Monroe has been playing some great basketball and has a juicy matchup against the Hornets who are ranked 20th against Centers. I also like the way Jose Calderon has been playing so he is worth a look. I wouldn’t be sold on Brandon Knight big game the other night though, he is very inconsistent.

Dallas @ Brooklyn – 8:00 pm EST

• Dallas really struggles to defend SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s, the problem is that the best two players for the Nets happen to play PG and Center. This is one of those tricky situations. Even though the matchup numbers are there, I don’t trust the likes of Joe Johnson, Gerald Wallace, or Reggie Evans. I do however, like the way Deron Williams has been playing.
• The Nets haven’t been very good defensively over their last 10 games. They are still solid at the PF position thanks to Reggie Evans, but have struggled in other areas. Dallas is one of those teams that you never know which players will do good on a certain night. Collison, Mayo, Marion, and Carter all can have good games one night and then stink it up the next. No thanks.

Sacramento @ San Antonio – 8:30 pm EST

• The line on this game is only -15 for the Spurs. Did I say only? The Kings have put together two good games in a row, but they are the Kings and it’s only a matter of time before they lose by 30. I think tonight is that night. It’s always hard to trust anyone from San Antonio or against San Antonio so why take the risk in a game that should be a blowout anyway?

Atlanta @ Phoenix – 9:00 pm EST

• Atlanta has some holes in their defense, particularly when it comes to defending PG’s. They are ranked 27th against PG’s on the season and this could mean big things for one Goran Dragic. He has at least 30 FP’s in 4 of his last 6 and I think he reaches that mark again tonight. Outside of Dragic, the rest of the Suns are as inconsistent as you can get.
• Can you believe the way Al Horford is playing right now? While I would love to take him against PHO, his price is just monstrous on some sites. He is the second most expensive player on the board tonight on a lot of sites. With Horford’s salary taking him out of the picture, look no further than Josh Smith. The Suns are ranked dead last against PF’s and Josh Smith is playing some great basketball. Matchups like these need to be taken advantage of.

Charlotte @ Utah – 9:00 pm EST

• Charlotte is bad. Bad, bad, bad, bad. While this game could easily turn into a blowout, the Jazz might be without Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap tonight. Jefferson is doubtful and Millsap is questionable. This leaves us with some great value plays in both Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter. I absolutely love their value and think that taking both of them is a good move.
• The Jazz aren’t a great defensive team, but this is the Bobcats we are talking about here. It’s hard to trust their best player Kemba Walker on the road. The only guy worth a shot is Byron Mullens. He is really cheap and has big upside. He makes a great GPP candidate.

Oklahoma City @ Denver – 10:30 pm EST

• Final game of the night should be a doozy. Vegas has this game at basically a pick em with the over/under at 220. All of us Grinders have to love the opportunities in this one. The two positions OKC struggles against are SG and SF. We still aren’t sure if Danilo Gallinari is going to play, so stay away from him. But don’t be afraid to take Andre Iguodala. He has been playing lights out lately and has averaged over 40 FP’s per game in his last 3.
• For OKC, stick with the studs. Nothing wrong with either Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant matchup tonight and the scoring should be high enough that I could see them both having monster games. While I don’t recommend taking them both, taking either of them looks like it could pay off.