NBA Daily Punts: Friday, April 11th
Happy Friday everyone! The NBA regular season is winding down quickly, which has certainly cooled the interest and thus the prize pools/number of guaranteed tournaments offered have both fallen off as baseball season is getting underway. However, the end of the regular season might actually be a good thing, because the playoffs should not only be much more fun to watch, but it should be a little more predictable with every team in the field actually playing for something.
It’s a busy night on the hardwood with 13 games on the schedule, so I’m sure we’ll be pretty busy reporting injury news tonight. This time of year can be brutal with at least half of the teams in the league not going 100% to avoid injury and to try to get a look at some of their younger/fringe players to see who is worth keeping around, which leads to unpredictability with the starters. In cash games, I value the teams still playing for something a bit more since the starters should see the floor unless the game becomes too lopsided late. You can make an argument for almost anyone in a GPP, so I don’t have a big issue with targeting teams with highly volatile rotations in tournaments, but I’ll try to limit my exposure in my H2H/50-50 games.
In order to be considered a punt, a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
FanDuel
Trey Burke – $5,300 – FanDuel isn’t the site I’ll be targeting him on the most, but I think the $5,300 price tag is reasonable as a contrarian play in a tournament. Burke has a bunch of 21-27 FP games in his last 10, but he also has a 6.5 FP game in there to go along with a 50 point night against the Warriors. I’m expecting him to fall somewhere around the 25 FP range but he’s capable 40+ and he won’t be a popular play.
Avery Bradley – $4,900 – Bradley returned from a three game absence on Wednesday and posted 24 points, 4 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 assists, good for 36.8 FP’s in the loss to Atlanta. I’m not expecting him to match that output as the scoring is obviously not something he can maintain, but he only needs about 25 FP’s at this price and it’s certainly within reach, especially if Rondo ends up sitting out the first half of a back-to-back tonight. In that case, he’s a very nice play at this price.
Patty Mills – $4,000 – Mills was moved into the starting lineup last night somewhat randomly against the Mavericks, and he took advantage of his chance with 26 points and 6 assists. Tony Parker is considered doubtful for tonight’s game (per DonBest), and if Mills draws another start there isn’t a cheap PG I’d rather play in a GPP. He’d be a cash game option as a starter as well.
Lance Stephenson – $5,600 – Lance is $100 over the BBB cutoff, but who would have expected him to be priced this low a few months ago? He went from a nightly triple-double threat to a guy struggling to consistently cross the 22-25 FP mark, and it seems like his demise has coincided with the Pacers collapse. He hasn’t been handling the ball as much as he was earlier in the season which has caused his assist totals to take a dip, but you can also attribute that to the Pacers inability to score for stretches of time. Paul George has started to pick it up which is eating into Stephenson’s value, but he’s an option at this price in a game that means a lot to both teams (Indiana and Miami are separated by just 1/2 game in the standings).
Courtney Lee – $3,800 – The Grizzlies are in must-win mode and which team will travel to Memphis to face them tomorrow night? The Philadelphia 76ers! The Griz have to be pleased with this and it should mean good things for their starters if the Sixers can keep this from becoming more then a 20-25 point deficit late. Lee will benefit from Tayshaun Prince absence as it helps to secure his playing time, but even with Tony Allen now healthy, Lee has still been getting a heavy dose of minutes lately (at least 34 in 4 of his last 5, the other game being a blowout). At $3,800 against Philly, he’s a prime punt play at the SG spot.
Al-Farouq Aminu – $5,200 – Anthony Davis has been ruled out for the season (along with Eric Gordon), which clearly opens up a big hole in the New Orleans front-court. Aminu can’t fill the void offensively, but he drew the start on Wednesday with Davis out and the Pelicans will probably use Aminu on Durant as much as possible, so if he can avoid foul trouble he should be able to stay on the court for 30 or more minutes. He can easily approach a double-double with that kind of playing time, even in a pretty tough match-up.
Draymond Green – $5,100 – David Lee did not play on Thursday night and it would not be at all surprising to see him sit out tonight against the Lakers. Green would be in a great spot if he can draw the start at PF, a position the Lakers have been absolutely awful against all season long (LA is ranked dead last in the NBA against PF’s on the season as well as over the last 15 days. He can produce across the board when he’s getting 30+ minutes and the pace of this game will only help his cause. Green would definitely lose some of his appeal if Lee were to start, but Lee is not likely to play more then 25 minutes even if he does by chance return to game action, and Green could potentially see some extra garbage time minutes in that situation if this one gets out of hand.
Corey Brewer – $5,100 – Brewer’s minutes seem safe with the multitude of injuries Minnesota is currently dealing with. Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Martin, J.J. Barea, Chase Budinger and Shabazz Muhammed all sat out the last game, and it doesn’t look like any of them will return as of late Thursday. Budinger and Muhammed are out for the season, Pekovic and Martin are considered doubtful and J.J. Barea is listed as questionable (per DonBest). Safe minutes can be hard to come by at this point in the year and Brewer’s price is still fairly low, and the match-up with Houston could potentially go down as the night’s highest scoring game. Brewer should have a few more chances in transition with the way the Rockets turn the ball over (2nd most turnovers in the league, ahead of only the Sixers) and his steals numbers have been impressive lately (13 steals in his last three games), so I like him in all formats and I doubt he’ll be a very popular play.
Ryan Kelly – $4,800 – Pau Gasol is out for the year and Chris Kaman is doubtful for tonight as of late Thursday, so Jordan Hill and Ryan Kelly should eat up most of the minutes in the front-court along with some help from Robert Sacre. I don’t love the upside for Kelly compared to the other options in this price range, but I think he’s a cash game option if he gets the start.
Wesley Johnson – $4,500 – With Kent Bazemore and Xavier Henry out, Wes has re-entered the starting lineup and saw 39 minutes on Tuesday (Bazemore’s first full game out of the lineup). He didn’t play very well (23.3 FP’s) but he actually didn’t fare all that badly considering the $4,400 price tag and the fact that he got off to a brutal start. I like him a bit more then Kelly since I think he has a better chance of exceeding 35 minutes, and he’s a bargain at this price if he can cross that mark.
James Johnson – $3,800 – Most of you probably remember Johnson from a few months ago when he was a nightly GPP option for a short time, but he seemed to fall out of favor and wasn’t getting much run before Tayshaun Prince started missing time. He’s played 24 and 32 minutes in the last two games without Prince in the lineup, putting up at least 20.3 FP’s in both contests. If he can fall somewhere between 24 and 32 in this game, he’ll have no trouble paying off this price tag against the team that leads the league in both pace and turnovers.
Mirza Teletovic – $3,600 – I’d only consider him if a regular or two ends up sitting out. He started on Wednesday and went for 17 and 9 in 32 minutes, and he’d be a steal at this price tag if he can come close to those totals tonight. Livingston’s absence might lead to a slight bump in playing time but that’s not enough for me to consider him as more then a GPP play.
Elton Brand – $4,200 – Pero Antic went through morning shoot-around today but his status for tonight’s game is still up in the air. Brand drew the start with Antic out of Wednesday’s lineup and posted 38.1 FP’s in 33 minutes, and the Hawks are still playing for something so he’d be a safe bet for around 30 minutes if Antic is out. He’s always a double-double threat with that kind of playing time and he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on as news starts to come out later this afternoon.
Kyle O’Quinn – $5,100 – Nikola Vucevic will not play tonight, so O’Quinn will continue to see extended run in the short-handed Orlando front-court. He’s a threat to post a fantasy point per minute or better with his ability to rack up boards and post healthy steal/block totals, so I don’t mind him at all as a cash game play at $5,100.
Jeff Withey – $3,600 – The Brow has been ruled out for the season, and Withey seems to be the next big man in line for New Orleans. Alexis Ajinca didn’t see the floor in Wednesday’s game while Withey posted 26 FP’s in 24 minutes, and that total is certainly attainable again tonight. He should be able to pay off this price tag pretty easily if he can cross the 25 minute mark.
DraftKings
Patty Mills – $4,400 – Parker is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game against the Suns, and if Mills draws another start he’s a steal at this price, especially in GPP’s. He put up 26 and 6 in 36 minutes last night, with Cory Joseph relegated to bench duties (he played just 8 minutes). You’re playing with fire rostering Spurs at this time of the year but Mills would be the best bet as a starter.
Avery Bradley – $3,500 – Bradley is under-priced on a few sites tonight after missing a few games, but he was back to playing regular minutes in his first game back and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t able to pay off this number with 30+ minutes of playing time. It’s possible Rondo sits tonight with the Celtics on the front-end of a B2B as well, but I think Bradley is playable regardless.
Austin Rivers – $3,200 – I don’t like the match-up for him against OKC, but it’s hard to argue with this price if he’s going to play 30 minutes (with some of that time coming at PG). He actually was handling the ball more against Phoenix on Wednesday, including late in the game when Tyreke Evans seemed fine with just standing in the corner and letting Rivers run the pick and roll with one of the bigs. It’s hard to consider him in cash games but the price is right if you want to throw him in a few GPP lineups.
Al-Farouq Aminu – $4,200 – Davis has been ruled out for the season and Aminu has put up a few big games with him out of the lineup, and the Pelicans will need his length against a team like the Thunder. Aminu has much more success on the boards without The Brow around and a double-double with some peripheral stats is certainly within reason for him tonight.
Elton Brand – $3,300 – Brand is an absolute steal at this price if Antic sits out tonight. He’s a great play in any format and we should have word on Antic’s status before 7 EST. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up as one of the top dollar per point plays of the night as a starter.
James Johnson – $3,000 – Tayshaun Prince will miss tonight’s game which will open up about 25 minutes or so for Johnson to roam, which is more then enough for him to pay off his minimum price tag against the Sixers. The Grizzlies need a win tonight so they won’t take it easy unless things get way out of hand.
DraftStreet
Trey Burke – $4,213 – I had to look a few times to make sure I was actually looking at Trey Burke at this price, because this has to be some kind of mistake. He’s about as close to a must-play as you can find tonight since he only needs about 13-15 FP’s to pay off this price tag, and in this match-up he has the upside to exceed 30 FP’s. Get him in your lineups and use the extra cap space to load up elsewhere.
Patty Mills – $8,561 – If Parker sits out tonight and Mills gets another start, he’s a steal at this price in all formats. You’re always running into risk playing a member of the Spurs in mid-April, but it’s not like Mills is in need of rest and he doesn’t need the kind of playing time he had last night to pay off this number.
Courtney Lee – $7,819 – Anytime you can get a starter against Philly at this price, it’s hard to pass up. Lee doesn’t have big upside but he’ll almost certainly cross the 30 minute mark with Prince out of the lineup and 20 FP’s would be a solid total for a player priced at $7,819.
Luol Deng – $8,968 – I’m not big on any of the Cavs tonight but this price just seems too low on Deng. He hasn’t been consistently producing and I’d be a little wary of him in a cash game, but he hasn’t been this cheap all season.
Elton Brand – $8,631 – If Pero Antic sits out, Brand becomes one of the top forward punt plays of the day. He’s a great option in any format with the Hawks still playing for something, but you’ll have to monitor the news on Antic if you want to roster him.
Al-Farouq Aminu – $7,152 – His price has actually gone down from where it’s been recently and Monty Williams will need his length against the Thunder, and he doesn’t even need to crack 20 FP’s to pay off this salary. He’s an option in any format.
James Johnson – $6,157 – There is no shortage of value on DraftStreet tonight, something I can’t say all that often. Johnson has big-time upside at this price with Prince out of the lineup and the Sixers coming to town, but he’s probably a better target in tournaments as opposed to cash games.