NBA DFS Grind Down: Top FanDuel and DraftKings Picks (10/26)

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2023-10-26 16:56:42

On the heels of Wednesday’s 12-game bonanza, we’re back to just 2 games in the NBA DFS streets on Thursday night. It should be a fun one, though, as we’ve got no shortage of star power. The Bucks will play host to the 76ers in the first game of the double-dip, while the Suns will visit the Lakers in the nightcap.

We’ve still got some situations to monitor, though. James Harden won’t suit up for Philly in the midst of his latest trade demand, while both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are listed as doubtful for Phoenix. We’ll also get our first look at Damian Lillard in a Bucks uniform for a regular-season game, while the Lakers will attempt to bounce back from their opening-night setback in Denver.

Below, you’ll find a deep dive into each of the 4 teams in action on Thursday’s NBA DFS slate.

NBA DFS Preview for Thursday, October 26

Philadelphia 76ers

Note: All team stats are from the 2022-23 season.

• Pace of Play: 98.5 (27th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.5 (3rd)
• Defensive Efficiency: 110.4 (8th)

Notable Injuries

• James Harden – OUT

The Sixers are fresh off of yet another disappointingly early playoff exit, and this season feels like a big one for the team’s current core. James Harden has already made it known that he’d like to play his next game for the Clippers, though the two teams don’t seem to be anywhere close to striking a deal. In the meantime, he’ll be ramping up his physical conditioning away from the team over the next few days.

Philly was top-8 in both offensive and defensive rating a season ago, but the offense figures to take a hit without Harden in the mix for the time being. De’Anthony Melton figures to take Harden’s starting spot for tonight’s game, which leaves Tyrese Maxey to man the point guard role. Last season, Maxey’s 6% usage hike with Harden off the floor was actually the highest on the team, followed by Tobias Harris (+4.4%) and Melton (+3.1%). The issue from a DFS standpoint is that Harden’s trade demand came so long ago that DraftKings ($7,500) and FanDuel ($7,700) had more than enough time to price Maxey accordingly for the role he’ll play. Given the way the salaries shake out at the guard spots, I think Maxey is easier to fit into an FD build.

Melton (0.98 FP/min) has always been a solid per-minute contributor, and he projects well at his sub-$6,000 price points in 31 projected minutes tonight. Noted pest Patrick Beverley is here now, but I’m not sure he’ll play enough to be relevant on this slate. Even without Harden, I view Harris as more of a lineup filler than a lineup starter. He has enough of a ceiling to crack the GPP player pool, but it’s hard to prioritize him. Kelly Oubre ($5,700 DK, $5,300) looks a little pricey for a guy projected to log 23 minutes.

I’m burying the lede, though, and that would be Joel Embiid. He posted a usage rate a shade under 40% with Harden off the floor last season, which really wasn’t a huge leap from his season-long 38% clip. He’ll get his regardless of who’s on the floor next to him, though tonight’s matchup against a defensive-minded Bucks frontcourt is a tough one. I’m still inclined to make the reigning MVP my highest-owned expensive player in all formats, especially on DK where we’re getting him at a relative discount ($10,300).

The Suns figure to be the value team du jour, but Paul Reed ($3,600) and PJ Tucker ($3,600) are worth considering in larger-field contests. You won’t find many players that cheap that produced as well as Reed did a season ago (1.11 FP/min). Even in limited minutes, the slate is tiny enough for him to grade out decently enough for the dollar. Tucker, conversely, is a pure dart throw. He averaged a paltry 0.34 FP/min with Harden off the floor a year ago, which is so bad that it looks like a misprint. Still, 26 projected minutes is 26 projected minutes.

Milwaukee Bucks

• Pace of Play: 102.2 (11th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 112.8 (11th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 109.3 (4th)

Speaking of early playoff exits, the Bucks were humiliated last spring in their first-round upset loss to the Heat. Milwaukee became just the fifth No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 8 seed in the first round. Rather than running it back, the Bucks swung for the fences by making a shocking trade for Damian Lillard just a few weeks ago. Out went Jrue Holiday and Grayson Allen, while Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton were re-signed over the summer. Cameron Payne is also here as Lillard’s new backup.

Needless to say, Dame is a much higher-usage point guard than Holiday was, which adds a new wrinkle to what should be an extremely potent offense. Of course, Lillard has also never teamed up with someone quite like Giannis Antetokounmpo, so there may be a learning curve for both superstars early on. It’s safe to assume Giannis will continue to lead the Bucks in usage after posting a 38% rate a season ago. He’s appropriately $12,000 on FanDuel, but only $10,200 on DraftKings. It’s extremely easy to pay up for the Embiid + Giannis pairing on DK tonight, though I’ll side with Embiid if I’m only playing one lineup on FD. Giannis averaged 1.78 FP/min last year, and I doubt the addition of Lillard will tank that number too much.

As for Lillard, he checks in at $9,000 on DraftKings and $9,500 on FanDuel. You’d have to think his usage comes down from where it was in Portland, but he’s also in a tier of his own at point guard tonight, assuming Booker sits out. I’m willing to look his way in tournaments at what should be an ownership discount with most paying down at the position.

Middleton battled injuries last season, but he still mustered a 27% usage rate in 2022-23. You’d have to think Lillard’s arrival impacts his role considerably. He’s also still dealing with some lingering knee soreness, which is why we only have him projected to log 28 minutes in this one. I’ll plant my flag with the Middleton fade, especially at $7,300 on FD. Pat Connaughton and Malik Beasley figure to have decent roles off the bench. On this slate, they’re really just lower-owned GPP pivots away from the obvious Phoenix value plays.

Brook Lopez (1.07 FP/min) is fresh off of one of the best seasons of his career, and he should walk into plenty of wide-open looks with defenses focusing on stopping Giannis and Lillard. The issue with Lopez is that we can get Jusuf Nurkic at a similar cost, and Nurk should have a bigger offensive role for his team tonight. Bobby Portis ($5,400 DK, $5,000 FD) is worth a look in his usual backup role as a GPP-only flier.

Phoenix Suns

• Pace of Play: 100.2 (18th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 112.1 (17th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 110.1 (7th)

Notable Injuries

• Bradley Beal – DOUBTFUL
• Devin Booker – DOUBTFUL
• Damion Lee – OUT

The Suns picked up a nice win in San Francisco on opening night, but it looks like they’ll be even more shorthanded tonight. Devin Booker – who looked no worse for the wear on Tuesday – is doubtful to play tonight in LA with a toe injury. Bradley Beal is also expected to miss his second straight game with a sore back, while Damion Lee remains sidelined. Phoenix is a 5.5-point ‘dog on the road in this one as a result.

With 2 high-usage stars unlikely to play, it’s safe to assume that the masses will flock to the third star, Kevin Durant. KD’s usage spiked to nearly 36% in the minutes he played without Booker on the floor last season. Frank Vogel wasn’t shy about relying on him heavily in the opener, either, as he logged 37 minutes in that close victory. $8,900 on DK is clearly too cheap for Durant in the role he’ll play tonight, while $9,800 is more appropriate. He’s not a must-play on another star-studded slate, but you’re certainly not doing it wrong if you make Durant a priority tonight, either.

The Suns don’t have a true point guard on the roster, but it’s fair to assume Jordan Goodwin and Eric Gordon will see heavy minutes if Booker is a no-go. Grayson Allen, meanwhile, started and logged 26 minutes with Beal out the other night. At just $3,900 on FD, Allen looks like an elite value. Goodwin ($3,200 DK, $3,600 FD) is tonight’s free square, and I don’t plan to get cute with the fade in any format. Gordon ($4,400 DK, $4,700 FD) still looks great. Josh Okogie (0.97 FP/min) enjoyed a breakout season with Phoenix a year ago, and he was terrific in 32 minutes in the opener. It’s worth noting, though, that he shot 7-9 and supplied 17 points in that one, which we obviously can’t expect from him on a nightly basis. Given the starting role, I’ll still look Okogie’s way even at what should be significant ownership tonight.

Jusuf Nurkic soaked up 28 minutes in the opener, while Drew Eubanks played 19 off the bench. Nurk should see a little usage uptick if Booker is out, and he’s yet another Sun that looks attractive at just $6,100 on DK. $7,900 on FD is a tougher sell, especially with Embiid being such an obvious priority at the same position. You can make a similar argument for Eubanks ($3,900 DK) as I did for Paul Reed as a value flier in large-field DK GPPs, but it’s admittedly thin. Yuta Watanabe ($3,300) is another dart-throw cheapie worth a look after he played 18 minutes on opening night.

Los Angeles Lakers

• Pace of Play: 103 (5th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 111.8 (19th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.5 (13th)

Notable Injuries

• Jarred Vanderbilt – OUT
• Jalen Hood-Schifino – OUT

The Lakers failed to dethrone the champs on ring night on Tuesday, but they’ll return home to take on the Suns tonight. There were a couple of notable developments on opening night. The first was that LeBron James played just 29 minutes, and that is reportedly going to be the regular-season plan, for the most part. The second was that Anthony Davis – who shot just 6-for-17 and didn’t score in the second half – decided not to show up.

LeBron was still the best player on the floor for the Lakers in the minutes he did play. Him being capped at around 30 minutes puts his fantasy ceiling into question, but I’d be reluctant to draw too many conclusions after one game. We have James projected for 32 minutes tonight, which is enough to make him grade out nicely for the dollar on DraftKings ($8,700). $10,000 on FanDuel is a tougher pill to swallow.

We can say the same of AD, who checks in at $1,500 less on DK than he is on FD tonight. The usage should still be there for him, and we know what he’s capable of contributing in terms of ancillary stats. Tonight’s matchup against Phoenix is also considerably more advantageous, so I’m willing to buy low on Davis in GPPs.

D’Angelo Russell wasn’t particularly efficient in the opener, but he did get up to 36 minutes. He’s even cheaper than he was the other night ($5,500 DK, $6,000 FD), so he grades out as one of the night’s better midrange value plays. D-Lo was outplayed by Austin Reaves, who is also clearly underpriced on DK ($5,600) compared to FanDuel ($6,900) tonight. I’ll gladly take that discount in all formats given the crucial role he’ll be playing for this team all year.

Taurean Prince impressed in 30 opening-night minutes, while Rui Hachimura was essentially a non-factor in just 15 minutes off the bench. I wouldn’t expect the minutes gulf between the two to be that wide every night, but Prince is still playable at his sub-$5,000 salaries around the industry. He’s clearly behind several Suns in the same range, however.

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