NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/12/22
We’re starting the week with a 7-game slate with just the Hawks on a back-to-back who are resting Bogdanovic tonight and have listed Young and Capela as questionable.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Trae Young and Clint Capela are both questionable for ATL so we’d likely see Aaron Holiday start at PG if Young sits while Onyeka Okongwu would start at C if Capela sits. Okongwu would be a top value play while Holiday would be a solid value play along with the other ATL starters.
- Ja Morant is questionable with thigh soreness and if out, we would see Tyus Jones draw the start and be a popular play, while all the starters would get usage bumps and be in play depending on your positional needs. Steven Adams is also questionable for Memphis, so we could see Clarke start for him, while Aldama and Tillman would also help at the PF/C spots if Adams sits.
- Donovan Mitchell is questionable with leg soreness, so Caris LeVert would likely start again if Mitchell sits and would be a top play for the price. While Garland hasn’t taken advantage of Mitchell’s last two missed games, he’s still a high upside play with a great matchup against the Spurs. Kevin Love is also Q and if available, he’ll help back up Mobley and Allen.
- Nic Claxton is questionable with hamstring tightness and if out, Ben Simmons would likely start at C with Curry or Warren joining the starting lineup.
- Monte Morris is questionable with groin soreness, and if he remains out Jordan Goodwin would continue to start and be a top value play coming off b2b games of 39+ FP as a starter.
- Jeremy Sochan is questionable to return from his quad contusion, and if he does play, he’d likely have a minutes restriction and there’s better value plays available today. Keldon Johnson is now questionable with an illness and if out Tre Jones and Devin Vassell would be looking at big usage bumps and both would be top plays today.
- Ivica Zubac is now questionable with groin soreness and if out we’d likely see Moses Brown start at C and be a strong value play while Morris and Covington would also have to help at C.
- Maxi Kleber is questionable with foot soreness, and Bertans is questionable with an illness, so Wood, Bullock, and the other Mavs forwards would absorb either of their minutes if out.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes, as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Bogdan Bogdanovic is out for rest on the b2b for ATL so Trent Forrest, AJ Griffin, and the other guards/wings will help absorb his minutes.
- The Spurs remain without Jakob Poeltl and Keita Bates-Diop so Collins and Bassey will handle the center minutes. Jeremy Sochan will return today and have a minutes limit playing off the bench.
- Al Horford is out for personal reasons, so Blake Griffin should continue to start at C and be a decent value play with Kornet backing him up.
- Royce ONeale remains out for personal reasons, so Joe Harris should continue to start at SG with Seth Curry and TJ Warren also benefiting with more minutes.
- Norman Powell remains out for LAC, so Kennard & Mann will continue to benefit, while Jordan McLaughlin is doubtful for MIN, so Nowell and Rivers are the top bench guards handling his minutes.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Kawhi Leonard ($6,300) is still underpriced for someone of his caliber seeing 30+ minutes now, especially coming off his best game of the year of 34+ FP. It should be a close game with Boston tonight, so Kawhi should push for 30+ minutes again and could smash his salary if more of his threes start falling or he starts picking up some steals and blocks.
- Deni Avdija ($5,500) is another forward that should be about $1k more expensive, as he’s been seeing almost 40 minutes in each of his last three games, going for over 29 FP in each, and should continue to see huge minutes with Beal out. He’s shown 35+ FP upside a few times this year and has a good shot at hitting that number again tonight, especially if Morris remains out.
- With Bogdanovic out for ATL AJ Griffin ($4,500) and Trent Forrest ($3,800) are solid value plays as likely starters while DeAndre Hunter ($5,300) is a bit pricier but still should hit value especially if Young or Capela end up out.
- Rudy Gobert ($7,600) only went up $100 from last game where he went for almost 52 FP and draws the same matchup with Portland tonight, so he’s still a value at that price, while Russell ($7,200), Edwards ($8,900), and Anderson ($5,600) are all strong plays for the price as well.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Trent Forrest ($3,100) is a very strong value play who should start and see 28+ minutes, while AJ Griffin ($4,700) and DeAndre Hunter ($4,600) remain other strong value plays for the Hawks. Onyeka Okongwu ($3,700) is also in play, as he’s shown a 16+ FP floor over his last six games and could see starters’ minutes if Capela ends up out.
- Deni Avdija ($4,900) remains underpriced and will definitely be in my main build along with Jordan Goodwin ($4,600) if Morris ends up out again.
- Brandon Clarke ($4,200) has gone for 30+ FP in three of his last four games and is in play for value regardless of the statuses of Morant (Q) and Adams (Q) but would be easily be a top value play on DK if Adams ends up out. Tyus Jones ($5,100) will be in most peoples’ cash game lineup if Morant ends up out.
- Rudy Gobert ($7,200) is still way too cheap for his upside with KAT out in the same matchup he just dominated 2 days ago, while Kyle Anderson ($5,200) and Jaden McDaniels ($4,200) are my next favorite MIN players for the price.
- Some more value guys I like for the price today include Tim Hardaway ($5,300), Aleksej Pokusevski ($4,400), Blake Griffin ($4,000), Lamar Stevens ($3,700), Joe Harris ($4,300), and Dorian Finney-Smith ($3,900).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn