NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/21/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-12-21 22:41:38

Eleven games on tap today with the Pistons, Bulls, Warriors, and Knicks on back-to-backs so we’ll get their official injury reports later today. It’s going to be another crazy day of injury news changing the optimal plays throughout the day as we have thirteen questionable players with an impact rating of eight or higher in the situation room but the good news is that 9 of the 11 games today tip off at 8PM or earlier so we should have a good amount of injury news before lock. The bad news is that the two 10PM/10:30PM games have 7 of the 13 questionable guys with impact ratings of eight or higher so it could be a big night of late swaps that push you over the cash line and up the GPP ranks.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Starting with the latest game, the Clippers have Paul George, Ivica Zubac, Reggie Jackson, and Norman Powell listed questionable and if all four end up out I’d have to consider Kawhi Leonard a top play of the slate in a great matchup with Charlotte. If George and/or Jackson sit then Wall and Mann would be more appealing plays while Zubac out would likely give Brown the start at C and also make Morris a more appealing play.

• In the other late game the Kings have Domantas Sabonis and Harrison Barnes questionable while Russell Westbrook is questionable for the Lakers. Sabonis out would have big DFS ramifications as DeAaron Fox would get a big time usage bump and have to carry a lot more offense along with Huerter and Murray while all the available big men would help cover the C minutes with the starter being the safest value play. Barnes being out would likely give Terence Davis the start and make Murray a more appealing play while Westbrook sitting for LAL would make Dennis Schroder a very strong value play again.

• Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson are questionable for Minnesota and if both sit again Naz Reid would be a top play coming off a 50+ FP game in this same matchup. Anthony Edwards has been on fire going for over 60 FP in his last two games and would remain a top play of the slate if Gobert remains out.

• Jusuf Nurkic is questionable for Portland and if out we’d see Drew Eubanks get another start and although his price went up almost $1k on DK it only went up $600 on FD and he’d be a top value play of the slate in the same matchup he just put up almost 30 FP in 32 minutes last game.

• Marcus Smart is questionable with an illness and if out Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon would handle most of the PG minutes with Brogdon being my preferred play even if he comes off the bench. Brown and Tatum would also get slight usage bumps and be higher-upside plays with no Smart.

• Killian Hayes is questionable for DET and if out Cory Joseph would likely start at PG while Ivey and Burks will also help there and get usage bumps.

• Kyrie Irving is questionable with calf tightness and if out Simmons and Durant would get nice usage bumps and be more appealing plays while Harris and Curry would get bumps as well.

• Franz Wagner is questionable for Orlando and if it out I’d expect either Ross or Houstan to draw the start with Ross being a decent value play while the other starters would all get slight usage bumps.

• The Thunder upgraded Josh Giddey and Darius Bazley to questionable so if they end up playing it will make guys like Dort, both Williams forwards, Wiggins, and Pokusevski less appealing plays.

• Alex Caruso is questionable now and if out Ayo Dosunmu would likely start while Coby White will get a boost as well especially with Dragic now out.

• James Wiseman is questionable now so the Warriors could be down to just 9 players if he ends up out.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• The Warriors stunk it up yesterday getting blown out by the Knicks and it doesn’t get easier for them today against the Nets as they’ll be without Curry, Klay, Wiggins, JaMychal Green, and DiVincenzo. There is serious blowout risk for them today but if it somehow stays close then Poole and Draymond could put up some crazy numbers as the top offensive options while Moses Moody will likely start again for Klay and is a great value option while Jonathan Kuminga should see 25+ minutes as well even off the bench. Ty Jerome is in play for value as well especially if he starts.

• Dorian Finney-Smith is out for Dallas joining Josh Green and Maxi Kleber so we should see either Wood, Bullock, or Bertans start at PF today with Wood being the obvious best play of the three.

• Khris Middleton and Lamar Stevens are likely out so MarJon Beauchamp could draw another start for MIL while Isaac Okoro will likely start for CLE.

• Terry Rozier will likely remain out for CHA so Kelly Oubre should start again and we’re treating Gary Trent as doubtful for TOR so Hernangomez could draw another start.

• The Bulls will be without Derrick Jones, Goran Dragic, and likely Javonte Green as well so Patrick Williams is a more appealing value play along with Dosunmu and White especially if Caruso (Q) ends up out.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Jordan Poole ($8,400) and Draymond Green ($6,500) are the obvious biggest beneficiaries with no Curry, Klay, Wiggins, and DiVincenzo so I can’t blame anyone for using them in cash games but just remember they come with serious blowout risk, are still on a b2b and could be tired/limited a bit, and it’s a big DFS slate with a lot of other options in likely more competitive games. Moses Moody ($3,700) and Jonathan Kuminga ($4,200) are where I’m likely going for Warriors exposure as both should be immune to a blowout as far as getting big minutes. Ty Jerome ($4,300) is also in play if he draws the start with DiVincenzo now out.

• Zach LaVine ($6,900) dropped $300 in salary after going for almost 40 FP last game and is someone that I’d expect to see in a lot of peoples’ cash game lineups today as CHI/ATL has one of the highest game totals of the slate and LaVine is at his cheapest price in almost a month and someone I will gladly use at a discount. Nikola Vucevic ($7,900) hasn’t been above $8k in over a month but with b2b games of 45+ FP I’d expect today to be the last game we can use him for under $8k and he’s a very solid option to get more exposure to this high game total with ATL.

• I hate repeating myself on picks but LaMelo Ball ($8,500) only went up $500 after going for 45 FP again last game in just 27 minutes and with Rozier likely still out Ball will have to create more offense as shown by his 12 assists last game with no Rozier and his ceiling is just too high at his current price especially if gets 35+ minutes.

• If Giddey and Bazley end up out again I like some OKC guys for value as Aaron Wiggins ($4,200) will likely start and should be a solid 20+ FP option while Kenrich Williams ($4,200) has seen 28 and 31 minutes off the bench the last two games averaging over 25 FPPG and would remain a solid value target at that price.

• Some other guys to consider at nice prices include Jaden Ivey ($5,700), Josh Hart ($5,900), Jalen Williams ($5,400), Tim Hardaway ($5,500), Jaden McDaniels ($5,200), Dennis Schroder ($5,600), and Marcus Morris ($5,100).

Looking at DraftKings:

• I’m starting my cash game lineup with Nikola Vucevic ($7,100) as he’s at his second lowest price of the season even after going for over 47 FP in b2b games and is just too cheap to fade for someone with 50+ FP upside. Zach LaVine ($7,200) also remains at an excellent price and is a fine cash game target to pair with Vuc.

• Jalen Duren ($4,700) went down $100 in salary after going for over 33 FP again which was his third time doing so in his last four games and even though he draws a tougher matchup against Embiid today he is still cheap enough to consider as a top cash game target on DK as he’s $1,500 cheaper than he is on FD. His teammate Jaden Ivey ($4,800) is at his cheapest salary of the season and coming off a 43 FP game I would also consider him a top cash game value play.

• Moses Moody ($3,300) should be extremely popular in cash games at almost minimum price as he should have an easy 5x value floor with 6-8x value upside as a starter. Jonathan Kuminga ($5,000) remains a solid play for the price while Draymond Green ($6,000) comes at a $500 discount to FD so I prefer using him in DK cash games if you want more GSW exposure. Ty Jerome ($3,500) would be a top value play if he draws the start with DiVincenzo now out.

• Markelle Fultz ($5,700) continues to be a strong DK play at a $900 discount to FD in a great matchup with Houston and could see a bump in usage if Franz Wagner ends up out. On the other side of that game Jabari Smith ($5,200) and Alperen Sengun ($5,700) are at some of their lowest prices of the season and are solid options if you want a mini-stack of this ORL/HOU game that is projected to be a very close game.

• More cheap plays I like on DK today include Alex Caruso ($3,800), Dennis Schroder ($4,700), Mitchell Robinson ($5,100), Jalen Williams ($4,600), Tim Hardaway ($5,300), and Jaden McDaniels ($4,600).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

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