NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/28/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-12-28 23:35:51

Eight games on tap today with eight of the sixteen teams on a b2b so we’ll get the Suns, Wizards, Hawks, Lakers, Nuggets, Kings, and Warriors injury reports later today (Magic came out early). Klay Thompson will almost certainly sit on the b2b while LeBron said he’ll see how he feels this morning before deciding if he’ll play today while Devin Booker is already ruled out.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Domantas Sabonis was in “good spirits” after missing his first game of the season yesterday and will be re-evaluated today so for now consider him questionable at best. Yesterday we moved him to doubtful after he missed shootaround and Alex Len was seen working with the starters so if we see something similar like that at today’s shootaround I wouldn’t be planning on using Sabonis especially since he’s in the last game of the night again. If he does end up out look for Len and Holmes to handle most of the center minutes while the other four starters get nice usage bumps in a rematch with Denver.

• Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, and Udonis Haslem are questionable for Miami with Vincent and Haslem not being important for DFS. If Butler ends up out look for Max Strus to start for him while Lowry and Herro would be much better plays. If Adebayo sits, Orlando Robinson becomes a strong play at center even if he doesn’t start as he’ll almost certainly get the most minutes there while Lowry and Herro move up the priority ranks and both would be top plays of the slate if both Butler and Adebayo sit, especially on FD where they come at a nice price discount to DK. (Update: Lowry is OUT, Butler and Adebayo are IN)

• I think LeBron would have to be feeling pretty dang sore to not play in this game today as he’s back in Miami but for now consider him questionable until we get the Lakers’ injury report. If LBJ ends up out then Russell Westbrook moves in to cash game consideration and all the other starters become much better value plays. (Update: LBJ is IN)

• Trae Young hurt his calf yesterday so consider him questionable for now but if he ends up out then Dejounte Murray would be a top play of the slate for me especially at his currently salaries under $9k on both sites. Collins and Bogdanovic would also be much more appealing plays with no Young as they’d have to carry more offense and both are still at very reasonable prices. DeAndre Hunter can also be considered questionable after sitting yesterday and if out Bogdanovic would start for him again. At 1PM EST we learned Bogdanovic and Johnson are Q along with Trae and Hunter so it could be a big Murray and Collins game if a couple of those guys end up out. (Update: Trae and Hunter are OUT)

• Bradley Beal is questionable after hurting his hamstring last night and if out Kuzma and Porzingis would get big usage bumps while Avdija and Kispert would handle most of Beal’s minutes.

• Aaron Gordon missed yesterday with a shoulder strain so he can be considered questionable while Bruce Brown sprained his ankle early and is also questionable today. Zeke Nnaji drew the start for Gordon yesterday but only saw 15 minutes while Vlatko Cancar saw 29 minutes and would be the preferred value play if Gordon sits again. Michael Porter also had his best game of the season yesterday and is still under $6k on both sites and would be a great play again today if Gordon (and Brown) both end up out. Jamal Murray can also be considered Q on the b2b but we’ll find out for sure when see DEN’s injury report.

• Draymond Green and Donte DiVincenzo are now questionable so Jordan Poole could be looking at an insane usage rate if both end up out while Jonathan Kuminga would likely start for Green with Ty Jerome likely starting for Donte if out.

• Alex Caruso and Javonte Green are questionable for the Bulls so look for Ayo Dosunmu to continue to start at PG if Caruso remains out while Patrick Williams will continue to see higher minutes if Green is still out.

• Kelly Olynyk is questionable to return from his ankle sprain and if does I’d expect him to start at C, otherwise Kessler should continue to start there if he remains out.

• Herb Jones is questionable to return from health and safety protocols but if he remains out look for Naji Marshall to start and be a solid value play but his upside will be limited a bit with Zion, Murphy, and Daniels all back in the mix. (Update: Jones is OUT)

• Kyle Anderson is questionable with back spasms and if he remains out look for Austin Rivers to start while Russell, Edwards and Gobert will continue to handle most of the offense.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Devin Booker remains out today so we’ll see if the Suns stick with Jock Landale in the starting lineup as they did yesterday. They could go back to Damion Lee or try Okogie or Saric too but at least they play in the first game of the night so we’ll know before lock. Landry Shamet remains out as well.

• Clint Capela is likely still out with his calf injury so Onyeka Okongwu should continue to start while John Collins keeps his higher ceiling.

• Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy will be back for the Pelicans today so Marshall (unless Herb is out) and Hayes go back to the bench while McCollum/Valanciunas take ceiling hits.

• With Khris Middleton still out look for Pat Connaughton to start again after going for almost 30 FP in 29 minutes as a starter last game and he is a top value play of the slate. Jrue Holiday was also ruled out at 1:30PM so Giannis becomes the top play of the slate having to carry even more offense while Connaughton becomes an even better value play now.

• With Klay likely sitting on the b2b we could see Moody, Kuminga, or Jerome draw the start for GSW today and whoever does will be a very strong value play while Poole, Green, and DiVincenzo will continue to carry most of the offense.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• I’m starting my cash game lineup with Pat Connaughton ($3,900) as he should start again for Middleton and brings 6-8x value upside at his current salary and is too cheap to fade for someone likely to see around 30 minutes and can produce fantasy points in a variety of ways.

• Thomas Bryant ($5,700) and Onyeka Okongwu ($5,900) are projecting as top p/$ center options today and I think I’m leaning towards Bryant as my preferred play as he’s been more consistent as far as minutes and production the last few games and the return of Collins has hurt the ceiling of Okongwu. The Lakers could also be without LeBron today which would cement Bryant as the clear best center play of the slate.

• At PG Kyrie Irving ($8,600) is standing out as a great p/$ play today as he’s at his cheapest price in over two weeks and is averaging over 40 FPPG in that span. He’s also playing in the second highest projected game total of the slate and the Nets currently have the highest team total of the slate so take advantage of this price for Kyrie in a potential blow up spot for him today.

• Jordan Poole ($7,600) hasn’t had a ceiling game in about 10 days and his price has dipped to it’s lowest number in two weeks so it’s a great spot to target him again, as his ownership should continue to lower as his production hasn’t met his salaries the last few games and with Klay likely out joining Curry and Wiggins I think Poole breaks out at home in a nice matchup with Utah today. Depending on who starts for Klay today between Moses Moody ($3,900), Jonathan Kuminga ($4,500), or Ty Jerome ($4,400) whoever does I’d consider to be a top value play of the slate.

• Keep Kyle Lowry ($6,400) and Tyler Herro ($7,900) on your cash game radar in case Butler and/or Adebayo end up out today as both come at nice discounts to DK and have a great matchup with the Lakers. The same can be said for Dejounte Murray ($8,400) in case Trae sits as he’s way too cheap for the usage bump he’d get in a likely high scoring game with Brooklyn.

• The Suns disappointed yesterday but have a nice bounce back spot today against the Wizards so I don’t mind going back to Chris Paul ($8,100) and/or Deandre Ayton ($8,000) especially in GPPs while Damion Lee ($4,400) remains a nice value play even if he comes off the bench again.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Kyrie Irving ($8,400) is at his cheapest DK price in over three weeks and is one of the first guys I’m locking in to cash games while Pat Connaughton ($4,000) remains my favorite value play of the slate.

• There’s some other solid PG value plays today starting with Monte Morris ($4,800) who is at his cheapest price in over three weeks and will get a nice usage bump if Beal does end up out with his hamstring injury. Also in that game is Duane Washington ($3,200) who went off for over 45 FP yesterday in just 24 bench minutes and should continue to see his role increase until Booker returns. I wouldn’t expect 15x value from him again but he has a great shot at 7-10x value if you need a dirt cheap guard to complete your favorite build. Mike Conley ($4,900) and Alec Burks ($3,800) are other cheap guard options to consider today.

• I have to keep mentioning Jamal Murray ($7,200) as a top cash game play as his price only went up $100 after going for over 46 FP again yesterday and he draws the same matchup tonight against SAC, and Denver could possibly be without Gordon and/or Brown giving Murray an elite ceiling again. Murray hasn’t played a b2b this year but could be needed with Brown likely out so check DEN’s injury report later.

• Jalen Duren ($5,100) had a couple down games but bounced back big last game going for almost 40 FP in 38 minutes so if he can stay out of foul trouble and get it going early against the Magic he should easily pay off his salary and is a nice pivot off Okongwu or Bryant in cash games.

• Moses Moody ($3,700) or Ty Jerome ($3,500) would be top value plays if either start for Klay while Draymond Green ($6,000) is my favorite Warriors play for the price as Jordan Poole ($8,600) remains a bit to expensive and I prefer using him on FD.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn