NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/8/22
Small three-game slate today starting at 7:30PM with a couple big questionable players as well as a two more Spurs starters likely out. The Clippers are on a back-to-back so we’ll get their official injury report but I wouldn’t expect Kawhi Leonard to play but Paul George has already said he will play today while Wall, Morris, and Kennard are all expected back after sitting yesterday.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG. Feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jimmy Butler is questionable for Miami so look for Max Strus to start if he’s out while Tyler Herro would keep his higher ceiling along with Adebayo. Dewayne Dedmon is also questionable and his minutes would be absorbed by Adebayo, Highsmith, and Jovic.
- Kevin Porter is questionable for Houston and if out I would consider Jalen Green a must play as he sees a team-high 34.2% usage rate with Porter off the floor while scoring an additional .20 FPPM. Eric Gordon would also be a top value play as he sees a 10.1% usage increase with Porter off the floor while scoring an additional .38 FPPM and the matchup against the Spurs is a great one for Green and Gordon.
- Bruno Fernando and Josh Christopher are also Q for Houston so Garuba would handle most of Fernando’s time if out while Christopher’s minutes would be handled by all the available guards/wings.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Kyle Lowry will be out for rest today so we should see Max Strus join the starting lineup with Tyler Herro sliding over to PG and all the starters get usage bumps with Herro and Adebayo being even higher upside plays now.
- The Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard, Norman Powell, and Terance Mann tonight so Paul George will have to carry most of the offense while Luke Kennard or Amir Coffey will likely start for Leonard. Marcus Morris and John Wall will also be available after sitting yesterday.
- The Spurs remain without Poeltl and Sochan and will also be without Keita Bates-Diop and likely Devin Vassell as well. Doug McDermott and Josh Richardson will be back though with one or both likely starting or they could go with Langford or Branham at SG or even Roby or Johnson at PF. Tre Jones and Keldon Johnson are by far the safest Spurs players tonight as far as usage and minutes go in a great matchup with Houston.
- Michael Porter remains out for DEN so Bruce Brown should continue to start and be a very strong play for the price.
- Other minor news includes Gabe Vincent still out for MIA, JaeSean Tate still out for HOU, and Keon Johnson back for POR.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- I have to start with Bruce Brown ($5,600) as he’s the same price as last game after going for over 31 FP and that feels like his floor tonight in a projected close matchup with Portland. He’s only had one game under 20 FP in his last thirteen games and has shown 40-50 FP upside so he’s the first guy I’m locking into cash games until his price reflects his production.
- Next I definitely want some Spurs exposure starting with Keldon Johnson ($7,500) and Tre Jones ($6,400) who will both have to carry a ton of offense with Poeltl, Sochan, Bates-Diop, and Vassell all out or likely out. The center spot seems to be in a time share with Collins, Bassey, Roby, Johnson, and Dieng so I will get my Spurs exposure elsewhere. We’ll see who starts at SG and PF today but whoever does can be considered a strong value play in Langford ($4,000), Branham ($3,500), Richardson ($4,700), McDermott ($3,600), or Roby ($4,600) as the likely pool of potential starters.
- The Rockets are the next team I want exposure to starting with Jalen Green ($6,700) who apparently will never be over $7k on FD this season and could in for a monster workload today if Kevin Porter ends up out. Even if Porter plays Green is in a great spot to go for 40+ FP and I’d expect him to be in most cash game lineups today. Eric Gordon ($4,400) will also be a popular play today as his cheap price won’t kill you if he has a 10-20 FP performance but not having him at that price if he goes for 25+ FP could be the difference in cashing or not cashing today. In order to fit in Jokic and a couple of other high-upside expensive plays, I think Gordon is a top value option to get the needed salary elsewhere.
- A few other cheap plays I like today include Max Strus ($5,300), Jabari Smith ($5,800), Marcus Morris ($4,900), Victor Oladipo ($4,000), Caleb Martin ($4,600), Bones Hyland ($5,000), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,600).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Keldon Johnson ($7,600) and Tre Jones ($6,400) remain too cheap for their expected roles today in a great matchup while Bruce Brown ($6,200) is a bit more expensive than FD but still a solid mid-range target.
- Jalen Green ($6,900) and Eric Gordon ($3,900) remain excellent targets for Houston while Alperen Sengun ($5,800) and Jabari Smith ($5,000) come at nice discounts to FD if you want more HOU exposure.
- Aaron Gordon ($6,300) also comes at a $600 discount to FD and is one of my favorite mid-range targets with 40+ FP upside while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,200) is a low-upside decent value option if you really need more savings.
- With Lowry out I’d consider Tyler Herro ($7,700) and Bam Adebayo ($8.400) top plays coming at nice price discounts to FD while Max Strus ($5,400) and Cody Martin ($5,000) are much more appealing value plays especially if Butler ends up out too.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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