NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/10/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-02-10 23:30:47

It’s the first day after the trade deadline, and wow that was a whirlwind of moves yesterday, with some interesting names getting moved and second-round picks being passed around like hot potatoes. The 11 games today are already full of great value plays, as it’s unlikely anyone who was traded yesterday will be available for their new teams today, while the teams they left will be more shorthanded than usual. A few guys who were traded two days ago are questionable today with “trade pending” statuses, so keep an eye out for their official statuses later. There’s plenty of injuries to monitor along with the traded players’ statuses, so let’s start breaking down what these teams will look like today, and brace ourselves for what is going to be a wild day of news and likely high scores in DFS.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Joel Embiid is questionable again with foot soreness, and if out Harrell would likely start while James Harden would get a big usage bump and be a top play, while Maxey, Melton, and Harris would be more appealing plays too. (Update: Embiid is IN)

• The Spurs could get back some starters today, as Jeremy Sochan and Tre Jones are questionable, while Keldon Johnson and Romeo Langford are also questionable. If Jones remains out I’d expect Langford (if active) to start with Branham in the backcourt, while Bates-Diop would likely start if Sochan remains out. Keldon sitting would give a nice usage bump to the other starters, while KBD, McDermott, and S. Johnson would all see more forward minutes. The Spurs already have a couple solid value plays in Branham and Collins, but if 2-3 of the questionable guys end up out I’d consider both must plays, especially with Richardson traded away. (Update: Keldon, Sochan, Tre, and Langford are all OUT)

• Jayson Tatum is questionable with an illness, and if out Boston would be a popular team to target in cash games in a great matchup with Charlotte, especially with Brown already ruled out. Grant Williams would likely start for Tatum and be a solid value play coming off a 35+ FP game in 39 minutes, while Derrick White and Robert Williams would carry a lot more of the offense and be very high upside plays. Al Horford is now questionable so Robert Williams would see a slight usage bump if he sits and Grant Williams would likely start for him. (Update: Tatum is IN, Horford is OUT)

• Luka Doncic is questionable to return from his heel contusion, but if he does play then we’ll get to see he and Irving together for the first time in a projected high scoring and competitive game with the Kings. It’s going to be interesting just how much Irving’s presence will lower Doncic’s usage, but it’s likely enough that I’m not excited about using either guys at their current salaries with so many other great spend ups today. (Update: Doncic is OUT)

• Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson are questionable along with Conley and Alexander-Walker, so we could potentially be looking at another Jaylen Nowell start if Conley isn’t available. Taurean Prince & Naz Reid would likely start again for Anderson and Gobert if they’re both out, although they could go with Austin Rivers (back from suspension) and move McDaniels to PF for Anderson.

• Jordan Clarkson is questionable with an illness, and if out Collin Sexton would be even more of a smash play, while Agbaji or Horton-Tucker would likely start at SG, and the other starters would get usage bumps. (Update: Clarkson is OUT)

• Jakob Poeltl is questionable but seems on track to play for Toronto, as the Spurs played there in his last game with them so he was able to just stay in town and get a head start on the trade process. He’ll play off the bench today. (Update: Poeltl is IN)

• Until we get official confirmation I’d treat Josh Hart as questionable to debut for the Knicks, but if available he should start right away and move Grimes to the bench. Brunson and Randle are still my favorite Knicks plays for the price, but Hart will take some usage from both. (Update: Hart is OUT)

• Lu Dort is questionable to return from his hamstring injury that cost him six games, and if available he should start right away, and we may actually start seeing some consistent OKC starting lineups assuming Jaylin Williams can string together a few starts at C with Muscala and Bazley out of the picture.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Devin Booker will be back after sitting the front of the Suns b2b yesterday, so I’m not as excited about any Suns players as I was yesterday, along with the chance TJ Warren could be available for them after being traded from Brooklyn. The only question mark on their starting lineup is at PF, as they could go with Landale like yesterday, or go with Okogie or Wainright who both had huge games yesterday.

• With Poeltl traded away, Zach Collins should be the starting center for the Spurs now and is a top play of the slate at his current salaries. Around 1PM we learned that Keldon, Tre, Sochan, and Langford are all out, so the Spurs will have 10 players available. Branham, Bates-Diop, and Collins should be locks to start, while Blake Wesley or newly added Devonte Graham will likely start at SG, and either Stanley Johnson or Doug McDermott will likely start at SF. Gorgui Dieng was signed around 1:30PM giving them a bit more depth at center today.

• The Pistons traded away Bey and Knox, and Noel is out as well as he’s “not with team” on the injury report. This is going to leave them extremely thin at the PF/C spots today, so Stewart and Duren should be very busy in a nice matchup with the Spurs, as only Livers is their big man depth, while Bogdanovic can also help some at PF.

• Charlotte traded away Mason Plumlee and Jalen McDaniels, so if they don’t recall any G-League guys they will have just 9 players available today. Nick Richards or Mark Williams will start at center, with Williams being my preferred target if he starts or not, as he’s seen much more consistent minutes than Richards lately, and has been a steady 20+ FP guy even in less than 20 MPPG this season, so he should smash value as he’ll likely have a 25+ minute floor today.

• With Brown and Smart out for Boston, we’ll likely get another Sam Hauser start at SG, while White and Brogdon should both be looking at 30-35 minutes and be heavily involved on offense.

• Westbrook won’t be available for his Jazz debut today along with Toscano-Anderson or Jones, so Collin Sexton should start at PG and is a top value play at his current salaries with Conley and NAW out of the picture and not much guard depth behind him.

• The Rockets traded away Gordon, Mathews, and Fernando, so Daishen Nix will likely start in the backcourt with Jalen Green, while Usman Garuba will likely take over as the main backup center.

• The Heat remain without Oladipo and Lowry, so Gabe Vincent should continue to start and be a solid value play at his current salaries, and even though Miami should have 11 available today, they’ll likely go with just an 8-man rotation like they did last game.

• OKC traded away Muscala and Bazley, so all three of the Williams’ should have safer minutes at the PF/C spots, as their only depth there after those three is Omoruyi today.

• Portland traded away Hart and Payton, so Nassir Little is a likely candidate to start at SF, while Watford, Sharpe, and Walker will all help cover Hart and Payton’s minutes.

• The Bucks traded away Hill and Nwora which doesn’t have an impact on their rotation, and Middleton will sit for rest on the b2b, so guys like Ingles and Matthews will see minutes bumps today.

• The Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard who is out for rest, so either Batum or Powell will likely start for him, and Paul George will see a nice usage bump and be a very high upside play today. LAC also traded away Jackson and Kennard, so Terance Mann could push for 35+ minutes with less PG depth behind him, and should be a solid value play especially for $4k on DK.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Zach Collins ($5,000) is popping as a 6x+ p/$ value play even at just a 27 minute projection, as he draws a plus matchup with Detroit, will almost certainly start with Poeltl gone, and could be looking at even more usage and minutes if Keldon or Sochan end up out. Overall his salary just doesn’t match the role he should have today even if all the questionable Spurs players end up available, and I’d expect him to be one of the higher owned PF/Cs in cash games. With Jones and Langford out along with Richardson traded away, Malaki Branham ($5,000) should get a ton of minutes today and is one of my favorite value plays of the day.

• Derrick White ($6,100) is also projecting as a top p/$ play, as he’s seen 38 and 37 minutes the last two games going for 35.7 and 40.9 FP, and should be looking at similar minutes today with Brown and Smart out. Boston currently has one of the highest team totals of the slate at home in a great matchup with Charlotte, so White should be a big factor on offense for them and is currently in serious consideration for cash games until we learn more news on other guys later.

• We’ll see who starts at center for Charlotte, but if it’s Mark Williams ($4,800) then I will be locking him in my cash game lineup regardless of how other news breaks today, as he’d likely be looking at 28+ minutes and a 25+ FP floor with a monster ceiling. Even if they start Richards, I’d still consider Williams at that price, as he should see 20+ minutes regardless and would likely be lower-owned if he came off the bench instead of started.

• Paul George ($8,200) is at his cheapest salary of the season, and with Kawhi, Jackson, and Kennard out he should have a 35%+ usage rate in a home matchup with a Bucks team on a b2b. It’s hard to draw up a better scenario for George as far as usage rate and salary, so take advantage of this price and situation as this is the thinnest the Clippers will be for a while once Gordon, Hyland, and Plumlee are available next game. Terance Mann ($5,100) is also in play coming off b2b games of around 30 FP, and should be looking at an even higher usage rate with less guard depth behind him today.

• With Conley and NAW traded away and Westbrook unavailable today, Collin Sexton ($5,200) should draw another start at PG for Utah, and is just too cheap for the 35+ FP upside he showed last game. He does have a tougher matchup against TOR compared to MIN last game, but with so little PG depth behind him today, it’s going to be hard to fade him in cash games at that price with the 7x value upside he brings unless we get some crazy better SG value later today.

• With the Pistons being so thin at PF/C today I like using Isaiah Stewart ($5,300) at PF on FD today, as I prefer Collins or Williams at center for the price over Duren. Stewart should push for 35+ minutes in a projected high scoring and close matchup with the Spurs, and with a likely 5x value floor he is a great cash game value play that brings a nice floor/ceiling combination today. Check out our No House Advantage bonus offer for new signups, where I like betting the over 8.5 rebounds line for Stewart there today.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Zach Collins ($4,000) and Collin Sexton ($4,000) are my cash game locks on DK as they are just way too cheap given their roles as projected starters today. Terance Mann ($4,000) is also at a salary that is going to be hard to fade, while Mark Williams ($3,200) is looking like a free square as well even if he doesn’t start. I’m also including Malaki Branham ($4,900) as a top value play with the Spurs only having 10 available now.

• The Heat are looking like better value on DK compared to FD, especially Caleb Martin ($4,800) who is $800 cheaper than FD, and should be looking at 35+ minutes again and is coming off his third output of 32+ FP in his last four games. Gabe Vincent ($4,500) comes at a slight discount to FD and is another super solid cash game play that should see 36+ minutes in a pace up matchup with Houston.

• Derrick White ($6,100) and Isaiah Stewart ($5,100) remain excellent cash game targets for the price, especially with their dual position eligibility, while Jalen Duren ($5,000) is $700 cheaper than FD and the decision between he and guys like Collins and Williams at center is much closer than it is on FD.

• More guys I like for the price on DK include Walker Kessler ($5,700), Jalen Williams ($5,500), Killian Hayes ($4,700), DeAnthony Melton ($4,400), Jaden McDaniels ($4,400), and Marcus Morris ($4,300).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

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Good luck today!

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