NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/15/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-02-15 23:37:15

It’s the last big slate before the All-Star Break as we have 10 games today, and it’s shaping up to be a pretty wild one with a bunch of questionable tags, and what is about as fluid of a situation I can remember for the Celtics as far as who will be available today. Boston is the only team on a back-to-back today, and they had to travel after an OT game yesterday, so they’re already dealing with a lot of tired legs, but make sure to look for their first injury report later to see who will or might be available/out for them. There’s plenty of other big news and situations to monitor today, so let’s get in to this wild Wednesday slate.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Joel Embiid is questionable again, and if out James Harden would be a top play of the slate getting a big usage bump, while Tucker, Reed, and Harrell would all help cover the center minutes.

• LeBron James is questionable, so Troy Brown would likely start if he sits, and Anthony Davis would be a top spend up while Schroder and Hachimura would be more appealing value options.

• Jamal Murray & Aaron Gordon are questionable, so Bruce Brown and Vlatko Cancar would start for each respectively if out, while Porter and Jokic would be higher ceiling plays if both sit.

• CJ McCollum is questionable after sitting last game, and if out Jose Alvarado would likely start again and be a top value play, while Ingram would see a nice usage bump and have a higher ceiling. Larry Nance is also questionable now, so his minutes would go to mostly Naji Marshall if out.

• Myles Turner is questionable along with his top backup Daniel Theis, so if both are out we’d likely see Isaiah Jackson start at center and he’d be a top value play of the slate. If Turner sits and Theis is available then he and Jackson would split time at center. (Update: Turner is IN, Theis is OUT)

• Kyrie Irving is now questionable, so Doncic would be looking at a higher ceiling if he’s out, while Josh Green would be a much better value play looking at huge minutes.

• John Collins is questionable, and if out Saddiq Bey would likely start for him again, and Capela would be a more appealing play. Hunter, Griffin, and Johnson would all see bumps in forward minutes as well. (Update: Collins is IN)

• Tim Hardaway, Christian Wood, and Reggie Bullock are questionable for Dallas, so we could see a lot more minutes for guys like Hardy and Pinson if all three are out, while Josh Green would likely push for 40 minutes if any combo of them sat. Regardless of their statuses, this is Doncic and Irving’s team and they are the only Mavs I’d trust in cash games right now. (Update: Hardaway is OUT, Bullock is IN)

• Lauri Markkanen and Rudy Gay are questionable for Utah, so Horton-Tucker or Agbaji could see a start if Markkanen sits, while Gay’s minutes would be handled by Fontecchio, JTA, and all the available forwards. Jordan Clarkson sees a +4.3% usage bump with Markkanen off the floor this year and would be a much more appealing play if Lauri is out. (Update: Gay is OUT)

• Alex Caruso is questionable, which is important as DeRozan is out and Caruso would likely start for him if active, but if Caruso sits then Coby White would likely start in the backcourt with Dosunmu. Goran Dragic is now questionable too, so White could be looking at a big minutes bump if both Caruso/Dragic are out. (Update: Caruso is IN, Dragic is OUT)

• Doug McDermott is questionable, and if out his minutes would be handled by KBD, Sochan, and Barlow. (Update: McDermott is IN)

• Duncan Robinson is questionable to return from his finger injury, and if active he’d help at the SG/SF spots, but if he still out then Strus would be looking at huge minutes again. (Update: Duncan is IN)

• Ricky Rubio is questionable, and if out his 15-20 minutes would be handled by LeVert and Neto. Cedi Osman is questionable, so Stevens and Wade would see more minutes if he’s out. (Update: Osman and Rubio are OUT)

• Robert Williams is the only questionable Celtics player on their first injury, so we would likely see another Blake Griffin start if he ends up out. (Update: R. Williams is OUT)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Jones, Langford, Roby, and Birch are out for the Spurs, so look for Malaki Branham to continue to start at PG with Graham and Wesley as the top bench guards, while Keita Bates-Diop likely continues to start, and Barlow should keep seeing significant minutes off the bench especially with Roby now out.

• With DeRozan out, Zach LaVine & Nikola Vucevic become top plays of the slate getting nice usage bumps in a great matchup with Indiana, while either Alex Caruso or Coby White will likely start depending on Caruso’s status. Derrick Jones is also out for the Bulls, so Dalen Terry will see an uptick in bench minutes.

• With Lowry, Herro, and Oladipo still out for Miami, Gabe Vincent & Max Strus should remain the starting backcourt looking at huge minutes, while Butler and Adebayo both have big time ceilings in a projected close game with Brooklyn. Seth Curry will be available for the Nets in that game after sitting the last five games.

• We’ll see if the Pistons start James Wiseman right away either at PF or C or bring him off the bench in his first game, but either way I’m not super excited about using any Detroit PF/C until we see how they use Wiseman for a game or two.

• Jayson Tatum is apparently playing now, so only Jaylen Brown, Mike Muscala, and Mfiondu Kabengele are currently out for Boston tonight. Marcus Smart will return from his ankle injury, and Derrick White is probable with his ear issue, so we should see a pretty normal starting lineup for them with Smart/White in the backcourt, Horford & R. Williams (if active) in the frontcourt, and Tatum at SF.

• Terry Rozier is now out with a hand sprain, so Dennis Smith will start at SG, while Bryce McGowens and Svi Mykhailiuk will also help more there. LaMelo Ball becomes an even better play than he already was, while Gordon Hayward and PJ Washington get usage bumps and are much more appealing plays.

• The Pacers are making a starting lineup change and going with TJ McConnell over Andrew Nembhard.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Zach LaVine ($7,600) is my top play of the slate as he remains underpriced even if DeRozan was available, but with DeRozan out his salary is comically cheap for someone likely to see around 40 minutes looking at a team-high 29% usage rate with the available Bulls today, along with the pace up matchup with Indiana that is sitting at just a 2.5 point spread. With DeRozan and Jones off the floor, Nikola Vucevic ($8,600) sees a +3.4% usage bump and scores an additional .24 FPPM for a team high 1.42 FPPM rate, so he is also one of my favorite plays of the slate and will likely be my cash game center today.

• If you need the salary savings then Mark Williams ($5,700) would be my other consideration for center in cash games, as his matchup with San Antonio is sitting at the highest projected total of the slate, and the matchup is much easier than his last game with ATL in which he still put up over 30 FP, so if he can stay out of foul trouble 30 FP should be his floor today. Check out our No House Advantage promo code for new signups, where I like betting the over 12.5 points line for Williams today.

• Max Strus ($5,000) saw an $800 price increase from last game, but he’s still too cheap with three of the Heat’s top guards out today, and with him likely seeing 38+ minutes as a starter today, I can’t see myself fading him in cash games unless some other insane better value opens up today. Gabe Vincent ($5,300) will also see big minutes and only went up $300 from last game, but he’s at a price that I’m not considering him a must play like he was around $4k, although he should be good for around 5x value today.

• Bennedict Mathurin ($5,000) is another SG/SF that is at a great price for someone coming off three straight games of 27+ FP in 30+ minutes, so even before we learn the status of Turner I’m considering Mathurin as a cash game option. Also at $5,000 is Malaki Branham, who doesn’t have the greatest p/$ projection currently but he should still see around 30 minutes in a great matchup with Charlotte, so if you need another value SF with 5-7x value upside I’d definitely consider him.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Zach Collins ($5,100) comes at a $1,300 discount to FD, and draws one of the best center matchup against Charlotte, so he is my favorite p/$ center for cash games on DK currently, although Mark Williams ($5,300) is still at a pretty nice price even after seeing a $1,300 salary bump, so I don’t mind using both he and Collins in your main build.

• Zach LaVine ($8,500) remains a top play, while Ayo Dosunmu ($4,400) and Patrick Williams ($4,700) are my next favorite Bulls targets as Nikola Vucevic ($9,200) is a bit too pricey compared to FD, along with the value other centers provide on DK today.

• Devonte Graham ($4,000) has seen 36, 23, and 28 minutes since joining the Spurs, and has gone for 42.25, 26.5, and 29.75 FP in those three games. His price only went up $500 from last game and Jones/Langford both remain out, so Graham should be looking at 25+ minutes and is one of my favorite value plays on DK. Malaki Branham ($4,600) saw a $200 price decrease and is also in play for value, while Keita Bates-Diop ($4,300) can be considered for cash games if he starts and McDermott remains out.

• Max Strus ($5,000) and Bennedict Mathurin ($4,800) remain solid SG/SF targets, and I also want to add Cameron Johnson ($5,000) who comes at a slight discount to FD and should be a solid 5-6x value option at SF/PF.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Getty Images