NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/6/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-02-06 23:11:34

We’re starting the week with eight games and some big news as a huge trade went down yesterday along with a couple new big injuries over the weekend. Kyrie Irving (and Markieff Morris) we’re traded to Dallas for Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith (plus three draft picks), so both teams are going to have some nice value and high-upside plays today, especially with Durant and Doncic still out for each team. Stephen Curry is out indefinitely with a leg injury, so Jordan Poole goes right back to being a top play, and Kyle Kuzma is out with an ankle sprain so Kristaps Porzingis is one of the highest upside plays of the slate, especially if Beal is also out. The Cavaliers and Kings are on a back-to-back, so look for their first injury reports later.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Bradley Beal is questionable with his foot soreness, and if he remains out Deni Avdija would likely start for him, and Kristaps Porzingis would be an even better play with a higher ceiling as Kuzma is already out. (Update: Beal is OUT)

• Keldon Johnson & Tre Jones are questionable for the Spurs, and if either end up out I’d consider Malaki Branham a top value play of the slate while Josh Richardson would also be a solid play. (Update: Jones is OUT)

• Jaylen Brown is questionable with an illness, and if out I’d expect either Brogdon or Pritchard to join the starting lineup, while Tatum and the other starters would be more appealing plays getting nice usage bumps. (Update: Brown is OUT)

• Isaiah Stewart is questionable with hip soreness, so Saddiq Bey would likely start if he’s out and be a very solid play for the price. (Update: Stewart is IN)

• Ben Simmons is questionable to return from his knee soreness, but regardless if he plays or not there is enough extra usage with Irving out that I’d consider the other Nets starters all great plays depending on your salary and positional needs. If Simmons sits I’d expect either Thomas, Watanabe, or Warren to join the starting lineup. (Update: Simmons is OUT)

• Frank Ntilikina is questionable with an illness, so either Jaden Hardy or McKinley Wright would likely start at PG if he’s out.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• With Curry out indefinitely, Jordan Poole will be the regular starting PG and is a top play on all sites, but especially on DK for just $6,200. Kevon Looney is also confirmed to start at center today after Kerr experimented with a smaller starting lineup for a few games.

• The Mavericks lineup could go a couple different ways with three starters out today, but I’d expect Green, Hardaway, and Powell to definitely start, while Wood likely also starts at PF. Frank Ntilikina is a likely candidate to start at PG, while Jaden Hardy and McKinley Wright are also options, but all three will see some time there with the starter being the safest DFS value option.

• Edmond Sumner will likely start at PG for Irving, and is a solid play in all formats, while Simmons likely starts if active, but if out we could see either Thomas, Watanabe, or Warren start for him.

• With Sochan, Langford, and Vassell out for the Spurs I’d expect Branham and Bates-Diop to continue to start, while Richardson would likely start if Jones ends up out, and either Doug McDermott or Stanley would likely start if Keldon Johnson is also out with Jones.

• DeAaron Fox is off the injury report and will be back for the Kings, moving Mitchell back to the bench and out of DFS consideration.

• Wiggins and Muscala started the last game for OKC, but it could be any of the Williams at center today or Joe instead of Wiggins, so it’s best to avoid any OKC player not named SGA, Giddey, or Jalen Williams for now.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• The Nets and Mavericks are going to be top teams to target, with Edmond Sumner ($5,300) the first guy I’m locking in to cash games as he should start at PG for Brooklyn and is coming off a 40 FP game in 39 minutes. I’m not expecting as big of a game as his last one, but for that price and the likelihood he sees 35+ minutes, I don’t want to fade the 7-8x value upside he brings today. Nic Claxton ($8,400) and Royce ONeale ($5,800) are my next favorite BKN plays, while Cam Thomas ($6,000) saw a big price increase after going for over 50 FP last game, and is only a GPP play for me at that salary if Simmons is active. If Simmons ends up out and Thomas starts, I would then consider him in play for cash games.

• For Dallas, Tim Hardaway ($5,200) is looking like a free square in cash games as his salary actually dropped $100 since last game, and now he’s going to have to carry even more offense with Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith joining Doncic as out. Josh Green ($4,600) is also a top value play who should easily see 30+ minutes, while Dwight Powell ($4,800) is still super cheap but would be a riskier value play if Christian Wood ($7,900) is active.

• MIL/POR is the highest projected total of the slate with just a four point spread, so I like getting exposure to both sides of this game in your main build. Giannis and Lillard are the obvious top plays from this game if you can afford one or both, while Jrue Holiday ($7,500) is at his cheapest price in almost a month and is a great way to get cheaper exposure to MIL. Anfernee Simons ($6,400) and Josh Hart ($5,600) are my favorite ways to get cheaper exposure to Portland as Grant has a tough matchup with Giannis, and Eubanks/Watford look to be in a timeshare at center limiting the ceilings of either.

• Jordan Poole ($7,400) is going to be popular today as he is now the Warriors top PG with Curry out, and Golden State has one of the higher projected team totals of the slate sitting around 120 in a nice home matchup with OKC. This is probably the cheapest we’ll be able to play Poole for a while so I will likely be on him in cash games, but if you want lower-owned exposure to GSW then I’d look at Klay Thompson ($7,600) or Draymond Green ($7,400). Check out our No House Advantage bonus offer for new sign ups, and I like betting the over 25.5 points line for Poole there today.

• SAS/CHI is currently the second highest projected scoring game, and Zach LaVine ($7,600) remains underpriced after going for over 50 FP last game and only seeing a $200 price bump. Ayo Dosunmu ($4,400) has picked it up offensively the last couple games going for 24 and 30 FP in each and is in play for value today, while Malaki Branham ($4,800) is already in play for value before we learn the status of Tre and Keldon, and if either end up out then he would be a cash game lock for me.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Jordan Poole ($6,200) dropped $600 after a terrible last game, and is now at his cheapest salary in over two months, and should be one of the highest-owned players in cash game lineups on DK. Edmond Sumner ($4,500) should also be one of the highest owned players today, as he’s still way too cheap even after seeing a $1,500 price jump from last game, as his upside is just way too high today and he should be closer to $6k. Cameron Thomas ($5,000) is $1k cheaper than FD and a much more appealing play on DK even if he doesn’t start, but if Simmons sits and Thomas starts he will be a cash game lock for me at that low of a salary.

• Frank Ntilikina ($3,000) and Jaden Hardy ($3,400) are popping as top p/$ plays, and it wouldn’t be shocking if they end up being strong plays as there are plenty of available backcourt minutes for DAL, but I think there’s enough safer value out there where they aren’t must plays for me. McKinley Wright and Theo Pinson are still there to help at the guard and wing spots, and I think I’d rather go with guys like Josh Green ($4,700), Dwight Powell ($4,600), or Tim Hardaway ($6,400) for Dallas exposure today.

• Jrue Holiday ($7,600) and Josh Hart ($5,800) are my favorite p/$ plays for cheap MIL/POR exposure, while Malaki Branham ($4,500) and Ayo Dosunmu ($4,500) are where I’d go for value from SAS/CHI.

• Some other value plays to consider today include Isaac Okoro ($3,800), Corey Kispert ($3,500), Terance Mann ($3,900), and Kelly Olynyk ($4,100).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn