NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/11/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-01-11 23:37:33

We have eight games on today’s main slate with six games tipping at 8PM or earlier so we should have most of the injury news before lock. The Suns are on a back-to-back and tip at 10PM EST so hopefully we learn the status of Ayton and Shamet early as we saw how much value Phoenix has when those two sat yesterday. The Pistons are also on a back-to-back and are full of injuries as well, with Duren, Stewart, Bogdanovic, and Livers all likely questionable or worse but we’ll find out for sure when we get their first injury report later.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• The Wizards have three starters questionable in Kristaps Porzingis, Corey Kispert, and Daniel Gafford so Kyle Kuzma could be looking at a huge usage bump if Porzingis and any of the other two end up out. I’d expect Deni Avdija to start if any of those three are out while guys like Hachimura and Barton could find their way in to the starting lineup if all three are out. (Update: Porzingis and Gafford are OUT, Kispert is IN)

• On the other side of that game DeMar DeRozan is questionable with a quad strain, and if out I would consider Zach LaVine a top play of the slate along with Nikola Vucevic. Patrick Williams would be a more appealing value play as well and we’d likely see either Caruso, White, or Jones join the starting lineup if DDR sits. (Update: DeRozan is OUT)

• We’ll see the Piston’s official injury report later but for now I’d consider Stewart, Bogdanovic, Duren, and Livers at minimum questionable so we could be looking at another Nerlens Noel or Kevin Knox spot start like yesterday if all four are out. (Update: Duren and Stewart are OUT, Bogdanovic and Livers are IN)

• We can also consider Deandre Ayton and Landry Shamet questionable at best for now as both sat yesterday, and if they remain out look for Duane Washington to start at PG and Biyombo to start at C and spilt time with Landale again. (Update: Ayton, Shamet, and Paul remain OUT)

• Anthony Edwards is questionable with hip soreness and if out I’d expect Austin Rivers to start while Russell and Gobert would get nice usage bumps and be much more appealing plays. Kyle Anderson is also now questionable with an illness. (Update: Edwards is IN, Anderson is OUT)

• RJ Barrett is questionable to return from his finger laceration that has kept him out the last six games, but if he remains out look for Quickley to continue to start for him. If Barrett plays then Brunson and Randle would take the biggest usage and ceiling hits. (Update: Barrett is IN)

• Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are questionable for Boston so White and Brogdon would be looking at more PG time if Smart is out again while Horford would be a more appealing play at C if Williams sits. (Update: Smart and Williams are OUT)

• Keldon Johnson is questionable with his hamstring tightness along with his likely replacement starter Keita Bates-Diop who is dealing with an ankle sprain. If both are out we’d likely see Josh Richardson, Stanley Johnson or Malaki Branham start at SF with Richardson being the highest upside play.

• Aaron Nesmith is questionable with an illness so Jalen Smith would likely start at PF if he’s out, and TJ McConnell is questionable with shoulder soreness and if out all the available guards would absorb his time. (Update: Nesmith is OUT, McConnell is IN)

• Trae Young was downgraded to questionable with an illness around 1PM, and if out I would consider Dejounte Murray a top play of the slate getting a huge usage bump while the other starters would be more appealing plays too. (Update: Trae is OUT)

• Kevin Huerter is questionable with an illness so Terence Davis and Malik Monk would get minutes bumps if he’s out.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Trae Young is out so Dejounte Murray will slide to PG and get a big usage bump while Aaron Holiday or Bogdan Bogdanovic likely join the starting lineup at SG.

• Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart are out for DET so Nerlens Noel should start again at C, while Bojan Bogdanovic is likely back to start at the forward spots with Bey. Isaiah Livers is also on track to return and help at the wing positions.

• DeMar DeRozan is likely out so LaVine and Vucevic become top plays now while Alex Caruso is a strong candidate to join the starting lineup.

• Herb Jones is likely out after taking a hard fall on his back last game, so we should see either Dyson Daniels or Jose Alvarado join the starting lineup with Alvarado being the much more appealing value play if he starts. McCollum, Valanciunas, and Marshall remain the highest upside plays for the Pelicans with Zion and Ingram still out.

• Ja Morant is off the injury report and will return today, while Brandon Clarke remains out so Aldama and Tillman will continue to get his minutes.

• With Ayton and Shamet out again look for Duane Washington to start at PG and Bismack Biyombo to start at C today.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Mikal Bridges ($6,100) saw 40 minutes yesterday and went for over 55 FP and his salary actually went down $100, and he could be in a similar spot today if Ayton and Shamet are both out again. Even if both Ayton and Shamet play, Bridges is still at a great price and is one of the few guys in the league we can count on huge minutes when he starts, even on a back-to-back, and will likely be in my cash game lineup regardless of the status of the other Suns players today.

• Duane Washington ($5,700) saw a $1k price jump overnight and would only be in play for me at that price if Ayton and Shamet are both out. Dario Saric ($3,800) is still pretty much minimum price and would be a top value play of the slate if Ayton is out again as he should see 26-30 minutes and we saw his upside yesterday as he went for over 37 FP. Torrey Craig ($5,000) and Damion Lee ($4,500) would also be very strong value plays if Ayton and Shamet are both out again, so we will likely see a lot of cash games lineups with 2-3 Suns in them if they have the same available players as yesterday.

• With Trae out I will absolutely be using Dejounte Murray ($8,200) in my cash game lineup, as he’s at his cheapest salary of the season and has a 50+ FP ceiling as the top PG for ATL now.

• Minnesota is also looking like a team we want exposure to as they get a banged up DET team on a b2b and could be without Edwards. Rudy Gobert ($7,500) is averaging over 40 FPPG over his last three games and is definitely looking at a potential ceiling game today if Duren and Stewart remain out for the Pistons.

• Kyle Kuzma ($7,400) is at his cheapest price since mid-November and should be in cash game consideration even before we learn the status of the Porzingis, Kispert, and Gafford. If Porzingis or any combo of the three Q guys sit then I’d consider Kuzma a must-play with 7-9x value upside.

• Al Horford ($5,000) is someone worth mentioning as a potential top value play if Robert Williams rests on the front end of Boston’s b2b tomorrow, as he’s still at his cheapest salary of the season and should have a 5-6x value floor if Williams ends up out. Nerlens Noel ($3,700) is also in play as a top value center who should see closer to 30 minutes if the game can stay closer than yesterday’s blowout with PHI.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Mikal Bridges ($6,300) remains at an excellent price and will definitely be in my cash game lineup if Ayton or Shamet remain out. Dario Saric ($3,500) is also someone that I’m considering for cash games regardless of Ayton’s status, but would be my top value play of the slate if Ayton sits again. Duane Washington ($4,700) is a different story on DK compared to FD as his price only went up $400 overnight and would be a very solid play if Shamet sits again. Torrey Craig ($4,500) and Damion Lee ($3,700) remain solid value plays if Shamet and Ayton sit again so depending on positional needs and how other news breaks today I’d expect a lot of Suns in peoples’ main builds today.

• Dejounte Murray ($8,200) is still way too cheap for the usage bump he gets with Trae out and I would expect him to be one of the highest owned players in cash games so fade him at your own risk today. DeAndre Hunter ($5,000) is also a much more appealing play now and comes at a $1.1k discount to FD.

• Rudy Gobert ($7,100) and Jaden McDaniels ($4,800) are my favorite MIN plays for the price, with McDaniels being $1,100 cheaper than FD and he’s gone for over 30 FP in b2b games. If Edwards ends up out I will almost certainly have at least two of those three players in my main lineup, and even if he plays they are all still at great prices to consider using them depending on your positional needs.

• Pat Connaughton ($3,500) is someone to consider for extreme value on DK today as he’s seen over 30 minutes in three of his last four games and in a projected close, high scoring matchup with ATL today, he should see normal starters’ minutes and has a great chance to crush his price tag.

• Al Horford ($4,600) is at his cheapest salary of the season and would be hard to pass up in cash games at that price if Williams ends up out. Nerlens Noel ($3,000) is now in play with Duren and Stewart out again, and he still went for 7x value yesterday even playing just 20 minutes in a blowout so if today’s game with MIN stays closer he should smash his salary.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn