NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/30/23
We’re starting the week with a big eight game slate and there are no teams on a back-to-back so we have everyone’s first injury reports. The biggest news of the day is the Lakers being without LeBron and AD, so we’ll likely see Hachimura’s first start while Russell Westbrook will be a very popular play at his current salaries. Another big headline is the return of Porzingis for Washington and potentially Doncic for the Mavericks as he’s been upgraded to questionable after sitting last game. There’s plenty of other news and injuries to monitor today so let’s get to it.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Joel Embiid is questionable for Philly, and if out we’d likely see Harrell draw the start at center while Tucker and Reed would see bumps in time at center as well. With Embiid off the floor this year James Harden sees a team high +5.9% usage bump and scores an additional .17 FPPM, while Melton and Harris see usage bumps around +4.5%.
- Luka Doncic is questionable for Dallas, and if he remains out Spencer Dinwiddie would remain a top play of the slate after going for 50+ FP in b2b games without Doncic. Finney-Smith and Green would be very strong value plays while Hardaway disappointed last game but would still be a high-upside play.
- Trae Young is questionable for Atlanta, and if out we’d likely see Bogdanovic start with Dejounte Murray sliding to PG. With Young off the floor, Murray sees a team-high 28% usage rate this season, while DeAndre Hunter gets a team-high +5.4% usage bump.
- Ben Simmons is questionable for the Nets, and if out I would consider Kyrie Irving and Nicolas Claxton top plays of the slate as they see an additional .39 and .20 FPPM respectively with Durant, Simmons, and Warren off the floor this season. Seth Curry would likely start and be a solid GPP play with high upside if he gets hot from three.
- Rudy Gobert and Taurean Prince are questionable for Minnesota, so we’d likely see Naz Reid start if Gobert sits while all the available forwards would absorb Prince’s time if out.
- Jusuf Nurkic and Josh Hart are questionable for Portland, so Little would likely start if Hart sits while Eubanks should start if Nurkic sits. If both end up out again then Damian Lillard would be an even better play and top spend up of the slate, as he sees a +8.9% usage bump and scores an additional .15 FPPM with Nurkic and Hart off the floor this season.
- Daniel Gafford is questionable with an illness, and if out we would see either Porzingis or Gibson start at C, with the former scenario likely keeping Kispert in the starting lineup.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- With LBJ and AD out, there’s a good chance Rui Hachimura starts at PF and he’s a solid play, especially for $4,100 on DK. They could also go with Walker or Gabriel as a starter but I’d still consider Hachimura a strong play even off the bench, while Westbrook is by far the highest-upside Lakers player today.
- Kristaps Porzingis is back so Kispert goes back to the bench, and all the Wizards starters take usage hits and will be harder to trust for ceiling games.
- OKC went with Jaylin Williams at center last game so that’s the best guess for today, while Aaron Wiggins will likely start again for Dort who remains out with a hamstring injury. Wiggins had around 25 FP in 30 minutes as a starter last game and is a solid value play on all sites today.
- The Pistons started Alec Burks over Hayes again last game so it seems like that’s what they’ll go with going forward with Jaden Ivey at PG. Isaiah Stewart was starting at PF but Saddiq Bey has now started the last two games over him so safe to assume that will continue as well.
- OG Anunoby remains out for Toronto, so look for Precious Achiuwa to start again, and even though his price went up on both sites after going for around 50 FP last game he’s still cheap enough to consider for cash games. Check out the Boom Fantasy app today, where I like taking the over 15.5 points and 8.5 rebounds for Achiuwa, and make sure to use RG’s Boom Fantasy promo code to get great bonuses when you sign up.
- Romeo Langford remains out for the Spurs, so Keita Bates-Diop likely starts again and is a solid value play, while Richardson and Branham continue to benefit a bit more.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- The Lakers have one of the lowest team totals today, but I still like targeting 2-3 of them for cash games as there is just too much extra usage to go around with LBJ and AD out. Russell Westbrook ($7,800) is the first guy I’m locking in as he’s at his lowest price in almost a month, and with LBJ & AD (plus Reaves & Nunn) off the floor this season he sees a team-high 34.5% usage rate while scoring 1.40 FPPM. Dennis Schroder ($6,800) sees a 9.4% usage bump with the available Lakers today and scores an additional .21 FPPM, so he’s still cheap enough for someone with a 40+ FP ceiling. Thomas Bryant ($5,800), Patrick Beverley ($4,600) and Rui Hachimura ($5,300) are my next favorite LAL targets depending on your positional needs.
- Alec Burks ($5,000) is the same price as last game in which he went for over 25 FP in 27 minutes as a starter, and he is just too cheap for someone with 35+ FP upside likely to get 30+ minutes assuming he remains a starter. I also really like Jaden Ivey ($6,400) who is the same price as last game and has gone for over 31 FP in four of his last five games.
- If Aaron Wiggins ($4,200) draws the start for Dort again I’d consider him a top value option as he went for over 6x value last game and his price only went up $100. He did that against CLE last game and today gets a better matchup with GSW who play faster, and this game is sitting at the highest projected total of the slate. Wiggins should have a 20 FP floor if he starts and if he can drain a few threes (went 0-2 last game) he has legit 30+ FP upside at a great price.
- More guys in cash game consideration today include Nic Claxton ($8,400), DAngelo Russell ($7,200), Precious Achiuwa ($6,100), Jeremy Sochan ($5,600), Tim Hardaway ($5,300), Dorian Finney-Smith ($5,300), and Keita Bates-Diop ($4,700).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Precious Achiuwa ($5,100) is just too cheap for a starter coming off a 50+ FP game whose salary only went up $700, and will be the first guy I lock in to my main build on DK. Aaron Wiggins ($3,400) only went up $300 in salary from the last game and is also at a price that will be hard to fade in cash games if he draws the start again for Dort.
- Like FD, Russell Westbrook ($7,500) is at his cheapest price in almost a month on DK, and I’d expect most cash game lineups to have him today so fade his 50+ FP upside at your own risk. Dennis Schroder ($5,400) comes at a $1,400 discount to FD so he should also be a very popular play, while Thomas Bryant ($5,000), Patrick Beverley ($4,000), and Rui Hachimura ($4,100) all remain great value options depending on your positional needs.
- Alec Burks ($4,900) went up $400 in salary from last game but remains a top value play if he continues to start for DET, while Jaden Ivey ($6,600) only went up $100 and is a solid target if you need a guard under $7k.
- Even if Doncic plays I still like Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,600) as he’s $700 cheaper than FD and only went up $200 on DK after another great game of around 8x value. If Doncic ends up out then I’d consider him a top value play of the slate along with Josh Green ($3,800) who saw 37 minutes last game and is also $700 cheaper than FD.
- With Langford still out for the Spurs, Keita Bates-Diop ($3,600) is a great value target as he should see 25-32 minutes as a starter, and with three straight games of 23+ FP he has another great chance to smash his DK salary today.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn