NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/14/23
We’re in for another wild slate today as we have eight games that include eight important questionable starters currently, which could increase as we’re still waiting on the initial injury reports for Detroit, Milwaukee, and Phoenix who are all on back-to-backs. Khris Middleton will sit for rest on the b2b, while the Pistons will be with just eight or nine available players today so they will be a top target for value still.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jamal Murray is questionable for Denver, and if out I’d expect Reggie Jackson to start at PG and be a pretty strong value play as he sees a 4% usage bump and scores .28 more FPPM with Murray off the floor. Aaron Gordon sees the biggest usage bump of 4.3% with Murray off the floor and scores .18 more FPPM, so he would be a more appealing play with a higher ceiling. (Update: Murray is IN)
- Brandon Ingram is questionable for New Orleans, and if he remains out look for Naji Marshall to continue to start for him and be a decent value play, while CJ McCollum sees a 3.1% usage bump while scoring an additional .13 FPPM making him a top play in a nice home matchup with the Lakers.
- Damian Lillard and Jerami Grant are questionable for Portland, so we’d likely see Reddish start if Lillard sits, while Little or Watford would likely start at PF if Grant sits. With Lillard and Grant off the floor this season, Anfernee Simons sees a 10.3% usage bump while scoring .26 more FPPM, and Cam Reddish sees a 9.3% usage bump with a .11 bump in FPPM.
- Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan are questionable for San Antonio, and if both are out they’d be down to 11 available players with Bates-Diop starting and possibly Wesley too as he started the 2nd half of last game after Braham got hurt. Zach Collins sees a 6.7% usage bump while scoring .16 more FPPM with Keldon, Sochan, and all the other guys out for the Spurs off the floor this season, while Devonte Graham sees a 2.3% usage bump and scores a whopping .29 more FPPM. (Update: Sochan is IN)
- Kyle Kuzma is questionable for Washington, and if out Kispert would likely join the starting lineup with Avdija getting more SF minutes too, and Beal would have a much higher ceiling as he sees a 4.9% usage bump and scores .16 more FPPM with Kuzma off the floor this season. (Update: Kuzma is OUT)
- Franz Wagner is questionable for Orlando, and if out they could start Suggs with Harris moving to SF, or go with a more traditional SF and start Caleb Houstan. With Franz off the floor this season Banchero and Houstan lead the team with 4% usage bumps each. (Update: Wagner is IN)
- Cory Joseph is questionable for Detroit, and if out they would be down to just 8 players available, and RJ Hampton would be the top bench guard while Hayes and McGruder would get a ton of backcourt minutes. (Update: Joseph is IN)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Pistons will be without Ivey, Bogdanovic, Bagley, Stewart, Burks, and Diallo again today, and Isaiah Livers will also be out with hip soreness, so they will either have nine or eight players available depending on the status of Joseph. Eugene Omoruyi will almost certainly start again and is a top play looking at huge minutes, while RJ Hampton or Buddy Boeheim will likely start for Livers.
- Jarrett Allen and Mark Williams are both out in the CLE/CHA game, so Stevens will likely start at PF with Evan Mobley moving to center, while Nick Richards should continue to start at center for the Hornets. Donovan Mitchell is also out now so look for Caris LeVert to start for him and be a very strong play.
- Jones, Branham, and Langford are out for the Spurs, so Devonte Graham will likely start at PG and be a top value play, as the only other guard depth they have today are Vassell and Wesley.
- With Middleton out for rest on the b2b, Pat Connaughton should start at SF for the Bucks, and Ingles will be available to help there as well after resting yesterday. Grayson Allen and Goran Dragic are both out too, so Jevon Carter could start at SG, and he, Connaughton, Ingles, and Green will all see bumps in minutes.
- Brunson is likely out for the Knicks, so Immanuel Quickley should continue to start and be a high-upside play.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Devonte Graham ($5,600) is my favorite play of the slate as he’s one of three available guards for the Spurs today, will almost certainly start and see 30+ minutes, and is underpriced in the highest projected scoring game of the slate against Orlando. Graham has gone for over 20 FP in ten of his last eleven games and most of those had either Jones or Branham active, so with both of those guys out along with Langford, Graham could push for 40 minutes today and he’s just too cheap to fade in cash games at this low of a salary. Zach Collins ($7,100) would be my next top target for the Spurs especially if Keldon and Sochan end up out.
- I’m expecting Eugene Omoruyi ($5,000) to see a big spike in ownership after going for over 36 FP in 31 minutes yesterday even with his price going up $600 overnight, and now that Livers is also out for Detroit Omoruyi is a top play in cash games looking at big minutes. Rodney McGruder ($4,800) went for 29 FP in 31 minutes yesterday and could be forced in to 35+ minutes if Joseph can’t go, putting him squarely in play for cash games at that price.
- Evan Mobley ($8,200) didn’t see a price change after playing 39 minutes last game with Allen out and going for over 36 FP, and today he’s in the exact same situation against Charlotte with Allen out, so 36 FP should be his floor as he didn’t even attempt a three point shot last game and had under 10 rebounds. For someone with 50+ FP upside looking at 39+ potential minutes in a great matchup, Mobley should be closer to $9k and I won’t be fading him in cash games at either the PF or C spot today at this low of a salary. Check out our Boom Fantasy bonus offer for new signups, where I like betting the over on Mobley’s line of 34.5 pts+rebs+asts today.
- If Franz Wagner ends up out for Orlando I’ll be looking to get at least one of Paolo Banchero ($7,800) and/or Markelle Fultz ($7,000) in my main build in a great matchup with the Spurs, while CJ McCollum ($8,400) would be a cash game lock at that price if Ingram remains out for the Pelicans.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Devonte Graham ($5,000) remains way too cheap given his expected role today and lack of guard depth for the Spurs and is the first guy I’m locking in to cash games, and Eugene Omoruyi ($3,800) didn’t see a price change overnight and is pretty much a free square on DK today at that price with Livers out along with all the other Pistons still out. Killian Hayes ($6,200) and Rodney McGruder ($3,500) come at nice discounts to FD and are definitely in play for cash games too, especially of Joseph sits out.
- Nick Richards ($5,000) is someone I greatly prefer using on DK as he’s $1,200 cheaper than FD, and should have a 6x value floor at his DK price as he’s gone for 32+ in three straight games including a 42.5 game in this same matchup with Cleveland last game. Evan Mobley ($8,100) remains a solid play at that price even after going up $600 since last game.
- Wendell Carter ($6,300) is another center I like much more on DK as he comes at an $1,100 discount to FD, and he only went up $200 in salary after going for 47.75 FP against Miami last game. Paolo Banchero ($7,700) and Markelle Fultz ($6,500) remain solid plays for Orlando too, and I will likely use at least two of those three in cash games if Franz Wagner gets ruled out.
- Kristaps Porzingis ($8,700) dropped $300 in price from last game and Bradley Beal ($8,200) dropped $200, and both have huge upside against a Detroit team on a b2b, especially if Kuzma ends up out, so keep both on your cash game radars today.
- Caris LeVert ($5,000) is now a top value play with Mitchell out for rest, as he’s $1k cheaper than FD and should have an easy 5x value floor. Darius Garland ($7,900) is also now a top play as he should push for 40+ minutes in a matchup with Charlotte in which he put up over 45 FP last game with Mitchell active.
- Some other strong cash game targets that I think remain underpriced are CJ McCollum ($8,000), Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,800), DAngelo Russell ($7,100), Chris Paul ($7,500), Deandre Ayton ($7,400), and Zach Collins ($6,300).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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