NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/1/22
Hope everyone had a fun and safe Halloween yesterday as it was a frightening DFS slate if you had Fox (injured), Haliburton, Turner, or Trae but it was a treat to have Paul George who dropped over 75 FP (ok I’m done with halloween stuff I promise). Today we have a small four game slate to begin November with a few questionable guys and the Nets are the only team on a back-to-back.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Zach LaVine was questionable overnight but will now be available to play today on the front end of the Bulls b2b and then sit tomorrow while Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White are still questionable for today. If Dosunmu sits we should see Alex Caruso start and he could be looking at solid minutes if White ends up out as well. (Update: Dosunmu WILL PLAY, White is OUT)
- Jalen Suggs has a chance to return with his questionable tag today and if he ends up playing he could start right away and really make it hard to trust any Magic guards to hit their ceilings. If Suggs needs more time and ends up out then all of the Magic starters would be in DFS consideration depending on your positional needs in a nice matchup with OKC. (Update: Suggs WILL PLAY)
- Kyle Anderson and Jordan McLaughlin are questionable for Minnesota and their absences would give more minutes to Jaylen Nowell, Taurean Prince, and Bryn Forbes off the bench.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- DeAndre Ayton remains out for the Suns so Bismack Biyombo should continue to start but he’s a risky DFS play as he likely won’t see over 25 minutes and Jock Landale got more minutes and outproduced him off the bench last game so we’re likely looking at a split in minutes between them. If Landale ever starts he would be on my DFS radar as he could see closer to 30 minutes than Biyombo ever will.
- Ben Simmons and Seth Curry are out for the Nets so Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant have massive ceilings today and are top plays of the slate while Royce ONeale and Nicolas Claxton will have to carry more offense and are solid cheaper options.
- Josh Giddey remains out for OKC so Tre Mann should continue to start while Aleksej Pokusevski likely starts at C again although he likely won’t see over 27 minutes. SGA and Dort remain the biggest beneficiaries of no Giddey and have the highest ceilings of any OKC players. (Update: Giddey was upgraded to Q at 5:30pm and he now WILL PLAY today)
- The Bulls remain without Andre Drummond which gives Nikola Vucevic a much higher ceiling as shown by him seeing his most minutes of the season last game with Drummond out since the Bulls don’t seem to want to give Tony Bradley any minutes at C.
- On smaller slates like today no team is off the table as far as targeting players from but my favorite game stack is CHI/BKN and I definitely want exposure to ORL/OKC as there won’t be much defense in that game.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Jalen Williams ($4,200) is a top projected p/$ play as we’re projecting him to see the similar 26 minutes he got last game in his first game back from his face injury. With his ability to fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways he should easily pay off that salary if he gets 25+ minutes and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him eventually become a starter in which he’d be a smash play at that price.
- A lot of Suns starters are projecting as top p/$ plays as it should be a high scoring competitive matchup with Minnesota. I won’t be on Biyombo for $5k but Cameron Johnson ($4,800) is starting to pick it up offensively going for over 28 FP in each of his last two games and is still at a solid price while Chris Paul ($7,400) and Mikal Bridges ($6,100) are still very affordable with big upside today.
- With Simmons and Curry out for BKN I’m considering Royce ONeale ($4,800) for value along with Alex Caruso ($5,000) if both Dosunmu and White end up out for CHI.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Nikola Vucevic ($7,800) and Bam Adebayo ($7,400) are both $500 cheaper than they are on FD and I like starting cash game builds with both of them.
- Jalen Williams ($3,900) is even cheaper than he is on FD and should be the top value play of the slate as far as ownership and upside goes making him a very risky fade in cash games. Lu Dort ($5,600) also has a nice salary discount compared to FD and I’d consider him a top mid-range target today.
- For the Suns Biyombo remains a bit too expensive while Johnson is still in play at $5,400 but not as appealing as his price on FD. Chris Paul ($7,700) and Mikal Bridges ($6,200) are where I’m looking for Suns exposure while Royce ONeale ($4,800) and Alex Caruso ($4,300) remain in play for value with Simmons out and potentially Dosunmu/White.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn