NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 1
November is welcoming us with a massive 13-game slate and a huge injury report full of questionable statuses. The Cavs and Knicks will face each other again on a back-to-back, and the Clippers are also on a b2b, so we’ll see the statuses of George and Leonard later on their official report. In other Clippers news, Harden won’t make his debut tonight, while PJ Tucker is off the injury report and looks like he will.
DeAaron Fox is the biggest new injury as he’s out indefinitely with an ankle sprain, while the Nets continue to lose bodies as Dinwiddie is out joining Claxton and Johnson.
Let’s check out any other news and lineup notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, and Jalen Smith are all questionable for the Pacers, and as 11.5 point underdogs vs. Boston it’s looking like a decent chance at least a couple of them end up out. Haliburton sitting would likely give Andrew Nembhard the start at PG, Mathurin out would likely give Hield or Nesmith the start, and Smith out would give other bigs like Toppin and Jackson a bump in minutes.
- Jalen Duren is questionable with a left ankle sprain, and if out Marvin Bagley would be a top candidate to start for him. There’s already reports out that Bagley is wearing a blue practice jersey today which represents starters, so it’s looking like a good chance he starts for Duren today.
- Trae Young is questionable with achilles inflammation, and if out I’d consider Dejounte Murray a must play in a great matchup with Washington. Either Bogdanovic or Griffin would likely start at SG, with Murray sliding to PG if Young is out.
- Brandon Ingram is questionable with right knee soreness after sitting last game, so expect to see Jordan Hawkins draw another start if Ingram remains out, and I would consider Hawkins a strong value target as he went for over 27 FP in 35 minutes last game.
- Caris LeVert is questionable with the hamstring soreness that kept him out yesterday, and if he remains out we’d see Bates and Porter continue to see meaningful bench minutes. Guys like Strus and Okoro would also be more appealing plays with less competition for usage.
- RJ Barrett is questionable with left knee soreness, and if out we’d see either Quickley, Hart, or DiVincenzo draw the start, while all the other starters would get slight usage bumps.
- Daniel Gafford is questionable with a left ankle sprain that kept him out last game, so we could see Coulibaly draw another start with Kuzma moving to center if Gafford remains out.
- Jonathan Kuminga is questionable with a left knee contusion, and if out, we’d see more minutes for Wiggins, Green, and Saric.
- Dennis Smith is questionable with a left hip contusion, and with Dinwiddie already out, Smith sitting would leave them with just 11 players available.
- Kevin Love is now questionable while Butler and Highsmith have been upgraded from Q to P. If Love sits we could see Richardson or Jaquez start, while all of Butler/Jaquez/Jovic will help cover the PF minutes.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Nets remain without Claxton and Johnson, and will now be without Dinwiddie too. We should see either Lonnie Walker or Royce ONeale join the starting lineup for Dinwiddie, but regardless of who does start they are both looking at a lot of minutes at very cheap prices.
- Kyrie Irving is doubtful with the left foot sprain that kept him out last game, so I’d expect Josh Green to draw another start. Doncic is already a great play, but no Irving again would elevate him to easily the top play of the slate.
- Luke Kennard is back from his concussion for Memphis, but Derrick Rose is out with knee soreness, so Smart should see a slight bump in minutes.
- Davion Mitchell is expected to start for the injured Fox and is a decent value play that has shown a low floor in similar spots last year, so I’m more interested in the other cheap Kings and even Malik Monk, while Sabonis is a great spend up that will have to carry a lot more offense.
- Bones Hyland drew the start for LAC last night, so I’m expecting that to continue today. Hyland is still super cheap, and if he sees over 30 minutes like he did yesterday, he should easily pay off his price and does have big-time upside. Harden is out but Tucker should be available, so we’ll see where Tucker slots in the lineup as a starter or bench option.
- Rui Hachimura is still out with his eye injury, so Wood should be looking at 25+ minutes again and is a solid value option today. Gabe Vincent is also doubtful for the Lakers, so Russell and Reaves will see light bumps in minutes, while Reddish and the other available guards get slight bumps.
- Cleveland has the same starters out as yesterday so we should see the same starting lineup, while LeVert’s status is still up in the air.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- With Covington traded away and Harden unavailable, Bones Hyland drew the start yesterday and went for 23.5 FP in 32 minutes. With the same scenario in play at worst for Hyland today, he is an absolute steal at just $4,700, and is the first guy I’m locking in to cash games at one of the PG spots. There’s at least a chance either George or Leonard are limited on the back-to-back, which would elevate Hyland’s usage even more and give him a great shot at being the best p/$ play of the slate. Norman Powell ($5,300) and Russell Westbrook ($7,600) are also in play.
- The Nets are my favorite overall team to target in cash games, as their available players keep getting less and less with Dinwiddie out today. Cam Thomas ($7,800) is the same price as last game and has legit 50+ FP upside today with how thin the Nets are at guard now, making him an easy cash game play. Lonnie Walker ($4,600) or Royce ONeale ($4,300) should start for Dinwiddie, and both are clear top value targets regardless of their starting statuses as each should see 30+ minutes. Dorian Finney-Smith ($5,200) is another fantastic cash game target coming off a 37 FP game, while Bridges ($7,800) and Simmons ($7,100) are great GPP plays that should be lower-owned than Thomas and the three value guys.
- Scoot Henderson ($5,300) finally had a solid performance going for 28.3 FP in 34 minutes last game, and with his price only increasing $300, he makes for a very strong cash game value target to pair with Hyland at PG. If Duren sits and Marvin Bagley ($4,700) starts, I would definitely consider him in your main build at either PF/C.
- The Rockets offer some nice value options today in Jalen Green ($6,600), Jabari Smith ($5,800), and Dillon Brooks ($4,600), as each should see around 35 minutes in a projected close game with Charlotte. Green and Smith are my preferred targets from that trio, while Brooks is a low-upside guy that I’d only use if you absolutely need to fill a final SG/SF spot and there’s no one else you like at that price.
- With Fox out for the Kings, I’m considering Kevin Huerter ($4,800) or Malik Monk ($5,000) in my main build, as I think they have more upside than Davion Mitchell ($4,700). Huerter probably has the higher ceiling as the starter, but Monk has shown a higher floor this year even in fewer minutes, and those minutes should increase with no Fox.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Bones Hyland ($5,100) and Scoot Henderson ($5,800) remain solid p/$ PG targets, while Westbrook ($7,100) and Powell ($4,900) are even cheaper than FD and solid targets.
- Jalen Green ($6,100) is really standing out as a top play today, as his price didn’t change after dropping his second consecutive 34+ FP game, and if he can shoot better than 1 for 5 from three like last game, I’m expecting 40-50 FP from him today. Jabari Smith ($5,500) also remains a very strong PF value target.
- Cam Thomas ($6,600) remains a cash game lock as he’s about $1k underpriced, and each of Dorian Finney-Smith ($5,100), Lonnie Walker ($4,800) and Royce ONeale ($4,700) are top cash game value targets.
- Onyeka Okongwu ($3,900) is popping as a top p/$ play today, as he’s gone for 23+ FP in his last two games, yet remains under $4k in an excellent matchup with Washington. I think he makes a lot of sense in cash games today as he should have around a 15 FP floor with 25+ FP upside, and you’re going to need at least one guy in his price range if you plan on using Luka Doncic ($12,600) and at least one other $8k+ guy.
- More cheap guys that I’m liking today are Ausar Thompson ($5,800), Marvin Bagley ($4,000), DeAndre Hunter ($4,900), Jalen Johnson ($5,400), Isaac Okoro ($5,100), and Brandon Miller ($5,400).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!