NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/14/22
Seven games on today’s main slate with the Thunder and Warriors on back-to-backs so we’ll see their first injury reports later which will likely include Tre Mann as a new addition for OKC and confirmation that Klay Thompson will sit on the b2b for GSW.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Paolo Banchero has missed the last two games with his ankle sprain and is questionable today and if out Chuma Okeke would likely start for him again and the other four starters would get nice usage bumps.
- Chris Paul has also missed the last two games with heel soreness and is questionable today and if he remains out Cameron Payne would start and be a solid DFS target as his price is still pretty reasonable on both sites.
- Tyler Herro is Q with his ankle sprain and Max Strus would likely start for him if he remains out while Lowry, Butler, and Adebayo get usage bumps having to carry most of the offense.
- Jalen Green is Q with shoulder soreness and if out I would consider Kevin Porter a top play of the slate as he is already pretty cheap for his upside and no Green would force him to do a lot more on offense. Martin, Nix, or Christopher would likely join the starting five if Green sits with the starter being a decent value option.
- Cory Joseph is Q with hip soreness and if out Killian Hayes would be an even better play as he’s already a top value play while Burks and Diallo would handle Joseph’s bench minutes.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Siakam, VanVleet, Trent, and Achiuwa are all out for TOR so we should see Otto Porter and Thaddeus Young start again while Dalano Banton and Malachi Flynn will get nice bumps in minutes as well.
- Cade Cunningham remains out for DET so Killian Hayes will continue to start to start and be a top value play and Jaden Ivey will have to carry more offense as well.
- LaMelo Ball returned for CHA over the weekend and with Dennis Smith likely out today he and Rozier will get most of the guard minutes.
- Tre Jones is out for the spurs so they are extremely thin at guard with Vassell, Richardson, and Hall the only guards available. Vassell, Johnson, and Poeltl will have to carry most of the offense tonight and Richardson is now a solid value option.
- Kawhi and Wall are out for LAC so Paul George keeps his higher ceiling while Jackson, Kennard, Powell, and Mann will continue to benefit.
- Jrue Holiday remains out for MIL so Jevon Carter should continue to start at PG while MarJon Beauchamp should keep starting for Middleton.
- Jordan Poole will likely start for Klay Thompson (rest on the b2b) and is a pretty appealing play as other Warriors starters could see minutes monitored on the b2b and it’s a great matchup with the Spurs.
- Tre Mann and Darius Bazley are out for OKC so Jalen Williams, Kenrich Williams, and Aaron Wiggins will see minutes boosts off the bench.
- TOR and MIL are my current favorite teams to target but if Paul, Herro, or Green are ruled out I will be looking to target PHO, MIA, and HOU players getting usage bumps.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Otto Porter ($4,800) and Thaddeus Young ($5,100) are fine cheap options for TOR but Scottie Barnes ($7,500) is my favorite Raptor to target as he saw 39 minutes last game and should see similar minutes today in a nice matchup with Detroit and he’s too cheap for a guy who can fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways. Dalano Banton ($4,000) or Malachi Flynn ($3,800) are solid value options as well.
- Assuming Giannis plays he’s the clear top spend-up option for me today while Jevon Carter ($5,400) will still have a big role with Holiday out and is at a very reasonable price although I wouldn’t expect 40+ FP with Giannis in. Allen, Beauchamp, and Portis remain solid cheap options as well for MIL.
- Killian Hayes ($5,100) is one of my favorite targets today as he’s starting for the injured Cunningham and has seen 35 and 34 minutes in his last two games and should easily see similar minutes today especially if Cory Joseph (Q) ends up out. He was much more appealing at $4k two days ago but he’s still a bit too cheap for 30+ FP upside.
- With Tre Jones out Josh Richardson ($4,700) will likely start and is a top value play now while Vassell, Keldon, and Poeltl are all in play having to each carry even more of the offense.
- With CP3 out Cameron Payne ($5,700) is another guy that is just too cheap for his likely 35+ minutes and should be easy to fit in your cash game lineup with his PG/SG eligibility.
- Clint Capela ($6,100), Chris Boucher ($5,900), Al Horford ($5,200), Draymond Green ($5,700), and Jabari Smith ($5,600) are my favorite cheap PF/Cs to target.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Thaddeus Young ($3,900) is the first guy I’m locking in as he’s way too cheap for someone likely to start and see 30+ minutes and comes at a great discount to his $5.1k price on FD. Otto Porter ($4,000) is also a lot cheaper than FD and should see 25+ minutes as a starter putting him in play for value as well. OG Anunoby ($7,400) is my preferred target over Barnes as he’s $900 cheaper than FD compared to Barnes who is $500 more expensive while Banton or Flynn are top value options if one starts.
- Killian Hayes ($4,400) is the next guy I’m locking in while Jaden Ivey ($6,200) keeps getting more expensive each game so this might be the cheapest we see him for a while on DK and he’s a solid target today.
- Josh Richardson ($3,900) is another guy I’m locking in with Tre Jones out as he’ll likely start and is just way too cheap for how thin the Spurs are at guard now.
- Jevon Carter ($6,000) is at a price where he’s definitely not a must-play but still has 30+ FP upside while Grayson Allen ($5,200) and MarJon Beauchamp ($4,600) remain solid value options for MIL.
- If Jordan Poole ($5,800) starts for Klay I’d consider him a top DFS target at a great price in a great matchup while Draymond Green ($5,800) is also a top target for me at that price.
- Clint Capela ($6,300), Chris Boucher ($5,600), Jabari Smith ($5,700), Al Horford ($5,400), Lu Dort ($5,100), and Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,600) are other plays that I like for the price on DK.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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