NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 22
It’s the biggest slate of the year so far, as everyone except DET and NYK are playing today, and of the 28 teams in play, 10 of them are on a back-to-back. A lot could change throughout the day once these ten initial injury reports come out, but for now, there are actually quite a small amount of questionable players currently. As always, make sure to keep checking LineupHQ and the Situation Room for updated statuses and projection changes.
Let’s check out all the news and notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jayson Tatum is questionable with an illness, and if out Horford or Hauser could start, while the other starters would get big usage bumps, especially Holiday, Brown, and Porzingis.
- Dejounte Murray is questionable now, so Bogdanovic would likely start if he’s out, and Trae Young would get a nice usage bump.
- For now, I’m assuming LeBron James will be listed as questionable, but he only played 24 minutes last night, so I’m also expecting him to play today. If he for some reason sits, look for Hachimura to start and be a solid value play.
- Murray, Duarte, Vezenkov, and Lyles are all questionable for the Kings, so Duarte or Edwards could draw the start if Murray sits, while Duarte’s minutes would be taken by Monk and the other guards. Lyles has yet to play this year and could help at PF if active and Murray sits, while Vezenkov’s time would be taken by the available wings.
- LeVert missed his second game in a row yesterday, and can be considered questionable until we see the Cavs first injury report. If he remains out, it would put Craig Porter in play for value again after going for 30 FP over these last two games LeVert has missed.
- Avdija is questionable with an illness, and if out either Coulibaly or Kispert would likely start.
- Scoot Henderson is now questionable, and if active he’d likely be eased back in and split PG time with Brogdon.
- Other guys that are questionable include Nesmith, Nembhard, Nance, Payton, Seth Curry, and Griffin.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Joel Embiid will sit tonight, so Paul Reed should start at center and is a top value play of the slate.
- Cam Reddish exited early with a groin injury yesterday and is out today. Either Austin Reaves or Max Christie will likely start for him.
- Nick Richards and the usual group of Hornets guys remain out, so Mark Williams keeps his higher ceiling after going for 50+ FP last game, and Bridges should continue to start with Washington off the bench.
- Brooklyn remains without Thomas, Simmons, and Smith, so O’Neale and Walker will keep their sizeable bench roles.
- The Pacers changed up their starting lineup yesterday, going with Buddy Hield and Aaron Nesmith over Mathurin and Toppin, so I’d expect that to continue today.
- Donovan Mitchell remains out and Dean Wade is doubtful, so we could see either Merrill or Niang start at SF.
- Jalen Williams remains out for OKC, so Cason Wallace will likely draw another start, and the other starters get usage bumps.
- Memphis still has seven guys listed out, so look for Konchar and Aldama to continue to start, with Williams/Roddy/Rose/Gilyard as the top bench options.
- Jaden McDaniels is out indefinitely with an ankle sprain, so Alexander-Walker will likely start for him and is a very strong value play on both sites.
- Draymond Green is still suspended, so Golden State will likely keep Paul in the starting lineup, and Beal remains out for Phoenix.
- Vassell is back for the Spurs so Champagnie goes back to his bench role
- Malcolm Brogdon returned yesterday pushing Mays back to the bench.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- With Embiid out now, Paul Reed ($4,500) is the top value play of the slate and Tyrese Maxey ($9,100) is a top spend up. Harris ($6,700) and Melton ($6,100) also get big usage bumps and are both cash game viable too.
- The Pacers continue to have huge team totals and today they’re the second highest at 121.25 currently. Assuming they stick with the same lineup as yesterday, Buddy Hield ($4,800) and Aaron Nesmith ($4,400) are looking like top value options after both went for over 25 FP as starters yesterday.
- The Hornets have the highest team total at 123.25, and Mark Williams ($6,800) only saw a $300 price increase after going for 51.2 FP last game against Boston. Today he gets a better matchup with Washington and still has less competition with Richards out again, so he is easily my favorite cash game center under $7k. Gordon Hayward ($6,400) is also a great mid-range target after dropping $400 in price.
- If Reddish is out with his groin injury, I think Austin Reaves ($6,000) and Max Christie ($3,600) will be cash game viable, with whoever starts being the safer play.
- Grayson Allen ($4,900) is still under $5k and is one of the safest cash game SG/SF targets, as he’s seen 35+ minutes in two straight games going for 27+ FP in each. With a likely 5x value floor, keep using him until Beal returns or his price gets closer to $6k.
- If Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,200) gets the start for McDaniels, I think he’d have to be in consideration for cash game value, as he saw 33 minutes last game and would likely see at least 30 minutes again today. He probably won’t win you a GPP, but his likely 20-25 FP should be plenty to help a cash game lineup for his cheap price.
- Santi Aldama ($6,200) is coming off a monster 56.4 FP game in 39 minutes, and he’s now gone for 36+ FP in three straight. With all the Grizzlies’ injuries, he should be a regular starter today and indefinitely, and he’s my favorite p/$ play from them.
- If Mitchell and LeVert remain out, then Max Strus ($6,100) will be on my cash game radar. He’s gone for 42+ FP in two of his last three, is seeing huge minutes, and will be out for a little revenge against his former Miami team.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Reed ($5,000) and Maxey ($9,000) remain top cash game plays, while Harris ($7,500) is a bit pricey and prefer him for GPPs.
- I still love Mark Williams ($6,500) for cash games, but on the other side of that game, I can’t ignore Daniel Gafford ($4,200), as he saw a 1.1k price drop and is at his cheapest price of the season. Gafford has gone for 20+ FP in all but four games he’s played this year, so even though he’ll see around 25-28 minutes, he should easily have a 5x value floor in the highest projected scoring game of the slate. I’ll likely go with both centers in this WSH/CHA game in my main build.
- Alexander-Walker ($3,700) is $500 cheaper than FanDuel and is easily one of the best extreme value targets on DraftKings today, assuming he starts. Hield ($5,200) and Nesmith ($4,200) remain top targets from the Pacers, assuming both start again, and I still love Santi Aldama ($6,100), assuming he too remains a starter.
- Other guys I like for the price in cash games include Alex Caruso ($4,800), Deni Avdija ($5,600), Gordon Hayward ($6,400), Jalen Johnson ($6,400), Herbert Jones ($6,300), Dillon Brooks ($5,000), and either Austin Reaves ($5,400) or Max Christie ($3,000) if one of them ends up starting for Reddish.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!