NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/28/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-11-28 23:06:46

We’re starting the week with a nice ten game slate full of a bunch of new questionable players and almost half of the 20 teams playing today are on a back-to-back. ATL, PHI, MIN, WSH, BOS, CLE, BKN, ORL, and IND are the b2b teams so make sure to check back here and with all of RGs resources listed in this article for updates once we get those 9 teams’ injury reports later.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Joel Embiid is questionable with his foot sprain and if he returns it would be hard to trust any other Philly starter to hit their ceilings. If Embiid remains out then Harrell should continue to start while Milton, Melton, and Harris would remain excellent plays.

• Clint Capela has missed the last two games with soreness from a dental procedure and is Q today and if he remains out look for Onyeka Okongwu to continue to start and be a solid value play. Hunter and Johnson are also questionable so we could see AJ Griffin start if Hunter sits.

• Jaylen Brown is questionable on the b2b and if out I’d consider Tatum a top play of the slate while Smart and White would be more appealing plays too.

• The Raptors list Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes, Dalano Banton, and Justin Champagnie questionable with the latter two names not being that important for DFS purposes. Siakam’s return would really hurt the upside of the other starters and if Barnes is also available then Young would go back to the bench and it would be hard to trust any TOR players to hit value at their current prices. If Siakam and Barnes remain out then FVV, Trent, and Anunoby would be much more appealing plays along with Young and Boucher.

• Mo Bamba and Chuma Okeke are questionable for the Magic and if both are out then Moe Wagner could join the starting five and would be a solid value play.

• Lauri Markkanen is questionable with a knee contusion and if out we’d likely see Malik Beasley or Talen Horton-Tucker start for him while all the other starters would get nice usage bumps.

• Larry Nance, Rui Hachimura, Alex Caruso, Matisse Thybulle, and Naji Marshall are other questionable bench guys today.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Terry Rozier is out with an illness so the Hornets are extremely thin at guard with Theo Maledon likely starting and he’s a top value play of the slate while Jalen McDaniels should continue to start with Heyward out.

• Harden and Maxey remain out so Milton and Melton should continue to start and get most of the guard minutes.

• Al Horford will sit on the b2b so Griffin or Kornet will likely start for him.

• Wendell Carter, Jalen Suggs, and Terrence Ross are all out for the Magic so Mo Bamba will likely start if he plays through his Q tag while Gary Harris should remain a starter at SG with Franz Wagner sliding over to PG.

• Allen, Love, and Stevens are all out for CLE so Dean Wade will almost certainly start while Caris LeVert (on track to return today) is the likely 5th starter unless they go with Isaac Okoro or Cedi Osman or even Robin Lopez at C.

• Barnes and Siakam would start if both return otherwise we could see Young and Hernangomez draw the start if both remain out.

• CJ McCollum is out and Brandon Ingram is likely out so Jose Alvarado and Trey Murphy should join the starting five and both are very strong value plays against OKC.

• Michael Porter is likely out for DEN so Bruce Brown should draw the start again while Jeff Green remains out as well giving more minutes to Cancar, Reed, and Nnaji. Bones Hyland is also trending out after missing shootaround so Ish Smith and the other bench guards will get more minutes.

• McDaniels, McLaughlin, and Prince are all out for MIN so Austin Rivers could draw another start while Kyle Anderson, Jaylen Nowell, and Bryn Forbes will be busy off the bench.

• Collin Sexton should continue to start with Conley out along with Cameron Payne with Paul out and Dennis Schroder for the Lakers with Beverley still suspended.

• The last three games of the night are my favorite ones to stack and target with CHI/UTA, PHO/SAC, and IND/LAL all sitting at game totals over 232 with spreads at -3 or closer.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Make sure to keep checking LineupHQ throughout the day as we’re still missing a bunch of teams’ first injury reports and the best p/$ plays right now might not be as optimal once we have a complete picture of everyone’s injury statuses and I will be editing this section with each b2b teams’ injury report release so these initial picks are based on what we know early in the day.

• Trey Murphy ($4,300) is projecting as a top p/$ value play as he should start for Ingram today and could be looking at huge minutes if Nance and Marshall both end up out as well. Regardless Murphy is way too cheap for a starter looking at 30+ minutes in a nice matchup with OKC. Jose Alvarado ($4,700) is also a solid value play likely starting alongside Murphy while Herbert Jones ($4,600) is also in play for value especially if Nance or Marshall are out.

• Theo Maledon ($4,100) is a top value play with Terry Rozier being ruled out as he saw 25 minutes and scored almost 30 FP last game and now could see 35-40 minutes tonight.

• DeAnthony Melton ($6,200) saw a $1,700 salary decrease overnight and is an excellent play at that price especially if Embiid remains out while Shake Milton ($6,500) is also $500 cheaper than last game even after going for over 47 FP and remains a top PG target at that price. Tobias Harris ($6,800) is also $1,600 cheaper than last game and would be a top play if Embiid remains out.

• Kelly Olynyk ($5,300) has been at this price for 7 of his last 9 games and all he’s done over that stretch is average over 30 FPPG making him one of the most solid plays in that price range. Olynyk is a strong play regardless of the status of Markkanen (Q) but if Lauri sits this one out then Olynyk would get a nice usage bump and become close to a must play. Collin Sexton ($5,100) and Jordan Clarkson ($6,200) are also both very strong value plays for UTA especially if Markkanen is out.

• Evan Mobley ($7,200), DAngelo Russell ($6,200), Aaron Gordon ($6,300), Jabari Smith ($5,900), Nic Claxton ($5,600), John Collins ($5,400), Jalen McDaniels ($4,500), Deni Avdija ($4,400), Dennis Schroder ($4,800), Gary Harris ($3,600), and Patrick Williams ($4,100) are more of my favorite p/$ plays today.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Trey Murphy ($4,600), Jose Alvarado ($4,300), and Herb Jones ($4,500) remain top value targets while Shake Milton ($6,500) is my favorite Philly play for the price.

• Theo Maledon ($3,600) is a top value play of the slate with Rozier ruled out as he could see massive minutes with only 9 Hornets available.

• Jalen McDaniels ($4,000) saw 31 minutes as the starter for Hayward last game and at a $500 discount to FD he’s one of my favorite SF/PF value plays on DK as he should easily pay off that price especially if his 3-point shot starts to fall more.

• Evan Mobley ($6,800) saw 39 minutes with Allen and Love out last game and is in the same position tonight looking at big minutes and a higher usage rate and he’s $700 cheaper than he was on DK yesterday making him one of the best p/$ plays of the slate.

• Kelly Olynyk ($5,700) and Collin Sexton ($5,500) remain at nice prices and if Markkanen sits then one if not both will almost certainly both make my cash game lineup.

• Dennis Schroder ($4,500) has seen 29 and 30 minutes as the starter for Beverley the last two games and is still at a price that makes him one of the best p/$ targets in a great matchup with the Pacers. Schroder has averaged over 25 FP the last two games and is a great cash game play at PG or SG.

• More guys I like for the price on DK include John Collins ($5,500), Deni Avdija ($4,800), Mason Plumlee ($5,400), Nic Claxton ($5,500), Dean Wade ($4,200), Jalen Williams ($4,400), Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,000), Keegan Murray ($4,000), Gary Harris ($3,900), and Jalen Smith ($4,700).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn