NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 6
With no games scheduled for tomorrow, the NBA has loaded up this Monday slate with 12 games, and it should be another wild one with plenty of big names already out and a few more currently questionable.
The PG position has been decimated with injuries, as Fox and Fultz remain out, Jamal Murray and CJ McCollum are both out indefinitely, and Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable. In other guard news, James Harden will make his Clippers debut likely on some kind of minutes limit as he gets his conditioning up to speed.
Let’s check out any other news and lineup notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- (Update: Duren is OUT) – Jalen Duren is questionable with bilateral ankle soreness now. Marvin Bagley is already starting at center so it’s looking bleak for Duren playing today.
- (Update: Doncic and Irving are IN, Kleber is OUT) – Doncic, Irving, and Kleber are all questionable for Dallas, and if either of the former two end up out we should see Josh Green start. Kleber sitting would give more minutes to Williams, Lively, and Powell.
- (Update: All three are IN) – The Wizards have three guys questionable in Deni Avdija, Daniel Gafford, and Corey Kispert, so we could be looking at huge minutes for Kyle Kuzma if two of those three end up out. Bilal Coulibaly would likely start if Avdija sits, while he and Shamet would benefit the most if Kispert were to sit. Gafford out would mean more time for Kuzma, Muscala, and Gallinari.
- (Update: KJ is IN) – Keldon Johnson is questionable with left wrist soreness, and if out, we should see either Osman, Champagnie, or McDermott start at SF, while all the other starters would be more appealing targets, especially Branham for cheap.
- (Update: RJ is IN) – RJ Barrett is questionable with the left knee injury that kept him out the last two games, and if he remains out we should see Josh Hart continue to start and be a solid value play.
- (Update: KP is IN) – Kristaps Porzingis is questionable with a “right eye sty”, and if out I’d be more inclined to play Holiday/Brown/Tatum as they’d see nice usage bumps, and Al Horford would be a much more appealing value play getting most of the center minutes.
- (Update: SGA is IN) – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was upgraded from out to questionable at 11:30 AM ET, so if he plays, I’d be much less likely to target any other Thunder plays. If SGA ends up out though, then Cason Wallace likely starts again and is a solid value target.
- (Update: Ivey is OUT) – Jaden Ivey is questionable with the illness that kept him out yesterday, and with Burks likely still out, we could see Marcus Sasser continue to see solid minutes and would be in play for value if Ivey sits as he’s gone for 30+ FP in three straight games.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Devin Vassell is out again with his groin injury, so look for Malaki Branham to continue to start for him and be a decent value play.
- Goga Bitadze drew the start at center for the injured Carter last game, and I’d expect that to continue after he had a double-double with five blocks. Fultz remains out, so we should see Anthony Black draw another start at PG after a solid performance last game in 30 minutes.
- Haywood Highsmith started at PF for the Heat last game, so they may opt to keep starting him or go back to Love, who was a DNP-CD last game. Even with Love not seeing the floor, Highsmith only saw 22 minutes, so he’s a risky play in all formats.
- James Harden will debut for the Clippers likely on a minutes limit as he ramps up conditioning, but even if he only sees 20-25 minutes, that is enough for me not to be interested in any Clippers players today, as their usage rates are going to take a big hit with Harden involved. Mann remains out, so Powell and Hyland will be the top bench guards.
- Alec Burks is likely still out and Joe Harris is out with a shoulder sprain, so Detroit is getting really thin at guard especially if Ivey joins them. Marcus Sasser is looking at another 25+ minutes tonight, and could see closer to 30 if Ivey is out.
- Derrick White remains out for personal reasons, so Al Horford should start again and is a solid value option on both sites.
- In the final game of the night both PGs are out, so some combination of Daniels, Hawkins, and Lewis will get the minutes for New Orleans, with one likely starting. Reggie Jackson will almost certainly start for Murray and is a strong value play on FanDuel for $4,200.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- At center you could definitely spend up on Jokic ($11,800) or save a bit of salary and use someone in the $8k price range like Wembanyama ($8,500) or Sengun ($8,100), but my preference for cash games is to just eat the chalk and go with Goga Bitadze ($4,800). Playing at home against Dallas in a game with just a 1.5 point spread should allow Bitadze to reach his 26 minutes projection, and if he can even produce half of what he did last game (10 pts, 10 rebs, 2 asts, 5 blks), he will pay off his salary easily and be a top p/$ play of the slate. Al Horford ($4,900) is now in play as well, likely to start again with White still out.
- At point guard, I think the combination of Reggie Jackson ($4,200) and Tyrese Haliburton ($9,800) makes a ton of sense, as Jackson should easily see 30+ minutes as Murray’s replacement and is way too cheap, while Haliburton showed his 65+ FP upside last game when put in the right matchup. Against a Spurs team that is bad defensively and plays at a fast pace is another great game environment for Haliburton to have a ceiling game, and the salary savings of Jackson will make it much easier to fit him in comfortably.
- If SGA ends up out and Cason Wallace ($4,200) starts again, then I’d definitely consider him for cash games, as he saw 36 minutes as a starter last game and his price didn’t change. He did only put up 15.9 FP last game, but I would consider that his floor today if SGA sits, as he’s playing in the second-highest projected scoring game of the slate with just a 2.5-point spread.
- Ausar Thompson ($6,600) continues to produce every game and is coming off his best performance of 53.8 FP. His price remains the same as last game, and this is almost certainly the last chance we’ll be able to play him for under $7k for a long time, so keep taking advantage of his affordable price in cash games, especially if Burks and/or Ivey remain out.
- Jordan Clarkson ($6,200) is another guard that continues to be too cheap and is a solid cash game target. He is a stat sheet stuffer, which gives him a great floor every night, and even on poor shooting nights, he still can put up 30+ FP, so the ceiling game is coming once his shot starts falling, and he too will be a $7k+ guy for most of the season.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Bitadze ($4,700) remains a top p/$ cash game play, and I’d find a spot for him at center or flex in cash games. Anthony Black ($4,300) only went up $200 after going for 22 FP in 30 minutes last game, and he should be looking at a similar range of minutes and production today so he’s in play for value.
- Reggie Jackson ($5,500) is just a bit pricier than I was hoping for, so I prefer using him on FanDuel for cash games. Ausar Thompson ($6,600) and Jordan Clarkson ($6,000) remain at excellent prices and I would use at least one if not both in your main build.
- Malaki Branham ($4,100) only saw 25 minutes as a starter yesterday, but did go for 26 FP and his price only went up $400. Playing on a back-to-back, we could see some minutes management for regular Spurs starters, so given the chance that Branham approaches 30+ minutes, it puts him squarely in play for cash games, as I would gladly take 25 minutes at minimum for 26 FP again at his price.
- Killian Hayes ($4,800) is another guard at a great price that should be on your cash game radar, as he’s seen 38 and 34 minutes the last two games going for 32.75 and 25.5 FP, yet his price has only gone up $200. The absence of Burks has been a big boost to him, so if either he and/or Ivey remain out, then I’d strongly consider Hayes as a salary saver.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!