NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/9/22
Hopefully you used yesterday’s off day to get out and vote as well as recharge the NBA DFS batteries since we have a big main slate today. DAL/ORL was moved to a 5:30PM EST tipoff due to tropical storm Nicole and FanDuel decided to still include it in their main slate. They are going with 13 games starting at 5:30 so just be wary if you’re playing on FD as this is a big change from the usual 7PM locks we’re used to. DraftKings will not include DAL/ORL and are going with a 12 game main slate starting at the usual 7PM.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- On FanDuel, we have Paolo Banchero questionable with an ankle sprain and if out I’d expect Chuma Okeke to start for him while all the other starters would get usage bumps. (Update: Banchero is OUT)
- Trae Young is questionable with shin soreness and if out Dejounte Murray will be a top target of the slate while Aaron Holiday will likely start again and split PG time with Murray and Griffin. AJ Griffin is worth mentioning as a value option if Young is out as he saw 31 minutes last game putting up almost 40 FP. (Update: Young WILL PLAY)
- Jusuf Nurkic and Jerami Grant were downgraded to questionable at 12:30PM EST which could be huge for the slate as Drew Eubanks would likely start if Nurkic sits and either Justise Winslow or Nassir Little would likely start for Grant if he sits. Portland has a great matchup with Charlotte so Eubanks would be a top value target with no Nurkic while Winslow or Little would be solid cheap plays with the starter being the safer value option if Grant is out. Lillard, Simons, and Hart would get usage bumps if either Nurkic and/or Grant sit. (Update: Nurkic and Grant are both OUT)
- Steven Adams is questionable with ankle soreness and if out we’d likely see Brandon Clarke draw another start and he would be a top value target as he saw 30 minutes as the starter last game and is still super cheap. (Update: Adams WILL PLAY)
- In the last games of the night Lonnie Walker is questionable with an illness but with Beverley and LeBron back Walker sitting wouldn’t affect to much besides Westbrook, Reaves, and Nunn getting a few more guard minutes each. (Update: Walker is OUT)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The biggest lineup change is with the Bucks as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday are both out leaving a ton of usage for the starters which will likely include George Hill and Bobby Portis. I’m also very high on Jevon Carter as he will also help run some point and he has been a very consistent fantasy producer as a starter this year including three of his last four games with 24+ FP.
- Chris Paul has been ruled out for the Suns so Cameron Payne should draw the start and is a top value play of the slate. Booker, Bridges, and Ayton all get usage bumps and are more appealing plays now as well.
- There isn’t too much other starting lineup news outside of who starts for the Pacers between Nesmith and Nembhard, will Grant Williams start again as he did last game with White moving to the bench, will Jericho Sims start over Hartenstein again, will Sumner or Simmons start at PG for the Nets, and will Terance Mann continue to start for the Clippers over Powell and Kennard.
- My favorite games to target today are HOU/TOR, NYK/BKN, NOP/CHI, MEM/SAS, and CLE/SAC while the Bucks and potentially the Suns (if Paul is out) are two teams I like targeting players from.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- He’s not a very exciting name but Royce ONeale ($4,800) is one of my favorite plays today as he’s still under $5k and is getting huge minutes with Irving out as he’s played 40 and 38 minutes in the Nets last two games. He only has one game under 29 FP in his last five games and I’d expect him to easily see 35+ minutes today with Watanabe out as well for Brooklyn in what should be a close game with the Knicks.
- I mentioned him previously but Jevon Carter ($3,800) is my next favorite value play as he should see 30+ minutes with Holiday and Giannis out and he’s been crushing his salary lately with three of his last four games going for over 24 FP. He could also lose some ownership to George Hill especially if Hill starts but I will be on the proven, consistent guard this year in Carter for top Bucks value. Bobby Portis ($5,900) is also one of my favorite plays of the slate as he’ll likely start for Giannis and in a great matchup with OKC he has easy 40+ FP upside.
- With Paul out Cameron Payne ($4,600) is a top value target along with Brandon Clarke ($4,200) if Adams sits while Al Horford ($5,100), Marcus Smart ($5,600), Jamal Murray ($5,900), and Jalen Green ($5,900) are some of my other favorite value plays of the slate.
- I also want to mention Obi Toppin ($3,700) as an elite GPP option as well as a fine cash game target if you need more extreme salary savings as he’s starting to see more minutes with Robinson out. Last game Toppin saw 25 minutes off the bench and went for almost 38 FP so I’d expect him to see similar minutes today and he has been super consistent this year with only two games under 15 FP and almost all of those games were with under 20 minutes of playing time.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Darius Garland ($6,900) is STILL under $7k even after averaging over 47 FPPG in his three games since returning from his eye injury and with minute totals of 42, 38, and 37 in his three full games this year he’s the first guy I’m locking in to cash games in a great matchup with the Kings before his price skyrockets. His teammate Evan Mobley ($5,900) is also one of my favorite plays as he’s the cheapest he’s been since opening night and is a very consistent 30+ FP guy with 40+ FP upside at a price that likely won’t be this cheap again.
- Jevon Carter ($3,900) remains my favorite Bucks value target with no Holiday or Giannis and Royce ONeale ($5,300) is still cheap enough for me to consider him a top target on DK as well. Bobby Portis ($6,800) is pricier than FD but definitely still in play given his big increase in usage and minutes today. Cameron Payne ($4,300) remains a top value play with Paul out and Brandon Clarke ($4,500) should remain on your radar if Adams is out.
- Other plays I like for the price on DK include Myles Turner ($5,700), Gary Trent ($5,700), Jalen Green ($6,100), Obi Toppin ($3,800), Aaron Gordon ($5,500), and Jaden Ivey ($5,500).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn